AI-generated · cited to primary sources · not investment advice
Bajaj Finance (500034) Feb 2026 Filing Analysis
Does management do what it says?
Management has upgraded their expectation for customer additions in FY26 to 17-18 million, having already added 4.76 million in Q3 alone. (1 exceeded, 1 in progress, 2 met across 4 tracked commitments)
“The Company is on course to define data architecture for AI by Q4 FY26. In FY27, to enable intelligent capabilities, the Company will implement and scale data for AI”
Actual GNPA (1.21%) and NNPA (0.47%) as of 31 December 2025 are currently above the long-term strategic targets of <1.2% and <0.4% respectively. (1 missed, 2 met, 1 exceeded across 4 tracked commitments)
“GNPA in corridor of 1.2%-1.4% NNPA in corridor of 0.4%-0.5%”
Management has revised the cost of funds guidance upward to a range of 7.55% to 7.60% as they exit the year, compared to the previous guidance of 7.5% to 7.55%. (1 revised, 1 exceeded across 2 tracked commitments)
“We're likely to be between 7.55% to 7.60% in terms of cost of funds as we exit the year.”
New car financing is projected to grow in the early 30s next year. — target: Early 30s percentage growth
“That means that new car financing next year would probably still grow in the early 30s.”
See the full cited Management analysis of Bajaj Finance
What could break the thesis?
The risk is easing as the captive 2-wheeler financing book is being intentionally wound down and credit costs are expected to slide down into the next fiscal year. (1 easing)
“the second order impact is on account of the captive 2-wheeler financing book, which is winding down... Annualized number came in at 1.91%. After a while we've seen a sub 2% number. And we think from here on, the number will continue to slide down as we get into next fiscal as well.”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Bajaj Finance
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