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John Cockerill
Our verdict on John Cockerill isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
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The timeline for commissioning the new Rolls Coating shed at the Taloja facility has been slightly shifted to Q1 CY26 from the previous target of late 2025/early Jan 2026. (3 revised across 3 tracked commitments)
“We expect to commission the new Rolls Coating shed at our Taloja facility in Q1CY26.”
The CY25 order win list does not include a JVD technology order. The major orders for the year were focused on CGL, CRM, and furnaces, missing the specific target for a JVD order within the 2025 calendar year. (1 missed across 1 tracked commitment)
“We expect to commission the new Rolls Coating shed at our Taloja facility in Q1CY26.”
The company is opening a new office in Shanghai to execute Chinese projects and capture new technology orders. — target: Office inauguration (+1 more commitment)
“So in order to really accompany our Chinese customers in the future, we have decided to open in Shanghai a new office which will be inaugurated next week.”
Strategic intent to consolidate JC Industry NA (USA) into the group structure. — target: Consolidation
“JC Industry NA (USA)* *to be consolidated later”
Management expects steel players' profitability to show material improvement in CY25 due to stabilizing steel prices.
“Steel prices have been steadily improving, and we expect steel players’ profitability to show a material improvement in CY25.”
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How durable is the business?
The segment is seeing a massive recovery in order intake, which reached INR 5.86 billion in Q3, nearly 10 times the first quarter's intake. Revenue growth accelerated to 18% in Q3 from 7.5% in Q2, driven by better project execution and site readiness. (5 expanding across 1 engine)
“Ending the year with the backlog close to INR 11.9 billion after a sharp acceleration in the second half, this is 74% increase compared to the previous year.”
The segment is expanding its share of the order book, with the value services order book tripling in a year. Management is targeting this segment to reach at least 20% of the total order book to drive recurring, higher-margin revenue. (5 expanding across 1 engine)
“The revenue portion from value services was close to 30% for the entire metals activities... The contribution in terms of margin of value services is around 40% for 2024 and will represent next year half of the profitability of the group.”
The technology moat is strengthening with the introduction of Jet Vapor Deposition (JVD) and Volteron. JVD is noted to have no competition worldwide, providing a unique cost advantage (saving €100-€120 per ton in OPEX) for high-end steel production. (5 expanding)
“JCIL is not observing this shift; we are positioned to lead it through our own technology portfolio and through the group's broader innovation pipeline. Jet Vapor Deposition... Volteron... Electrical steel processing.”
The company is strategically shifting focus toward the Spares & Services segment to mitigate the cyclicality of large project orders and improve margins. (2 expanding)
“We continue to double down on the Spares and Services business to build a stable portfolio and mitigate performance cyclicality.”
The company is expanding its technology moat by foraying into upstream steelmaking (Volteron) and advanced coating (JVD), moving beyond its traditional downstream focus. (1 expanding)
“VolteronTM - a disruptive innovation project aiming at CO2 free steelmaking... JVD (Jet Vapor Deposition) line a revolutionary technological breakthrough in steel coating”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of John Cockerill
Where does growth come from?
The order book has stabilized at INR 6.4 billion as of June 30, 2025, but the forward-looking pipeline has surged to over INR 46 billion, indicating a massive acceleration in potential future orders. (5 accelerating across 5 signals)
“Order Book: INR 11,869 Mn (+74% Y-o-Y)”
The company is expanding its global footprint by acquiring a US-based group entity, which will provide direct access to the North American steel market. (+2 more signals)
“In 2026, this consolidation advances to its next major step: the proposed acquisition of the US-based group entity targeted for completion by December 31st, 2026.”
Revenue has seen a sharp reversal, dropping 48% compared to the same quarter last year due to macroeconomic volatility and slower-than-expected order inflows. (1 reversing, 2 accelerating across 3 signals)
“So the contribution in terms of margin of value services is around 40% for 2024 and will represent next year half of the profitability of the group.”
The partnership with SAIL was formalized in 2024, marking a strategic entry into large-scale public sector modernization projects. (1 new trend across 1 signal)
“2024 Signed MoU: Signed an MoU with SAIL”
The company is successfully pivoting toward higher-margin services to offset the decline in large project revenue, evidenced by a massive 1,700 basis point improvement in material margins. (5 accelerating across 5 signals)
“Material Margin (%) Q1CY24 32.1% Q1CY25 49.1% 1,700 bps”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of John Cockerill
What could break the thesis?
The order book has significantly depleted from previously reported levels (INR 11,869 Mn) to INR 6,561 Mn as of March 31, 2025. New order inflows have been slower-than-expected for several quarters, increasing pressure on execution to maintain revenue. (2 intensifying, 3 easing, 2 high-severity)
“Key customers include Tata Steel, Jindal, JSW, ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel”
Global headwinds from Chinese steel overcapacity and price dumping have stalled new capacity expansions, though Indian government anti-dumping duties are providing some relief. (1 stable)
“Raw Material Cost 1,617.7”
The risk remains high as steel prices dropped to 'unsustainably low levels' in CY24, causing customers to turn cautious and conservative about expansion plans. However, management sees signs of bottoming out due to anti-dumping measures and Chinese production cuts. (2 stable, 2 easing)
“Steel prices dropped to unsustainably low levels in CY24... This has led to steel manufacturers turning cautious and conservative about their expansion plans.”
The company is actively consolidating its position as the 'Indian hub and center of excellence' for the group. While integration is ongoing, the company reported a negative EBITDA of INR 4.4 Mn for the quarter, suggesting the transition is still weighing on profitability. (3 stable, 1 intensifying)
“JCIL is John Cockerill Industry’s Indian hub and center of excellence... The addition of 24 assembly stations under a permanent shed will substantially increase production capabilities.”
Revenue decline has intensified significantly, dropping 48% year-on-year in Q1CY25 (INR 764.2 Mn vs INR 1,470.6 Mn). Management attributes this to delays in capital expenditure by steel manufacturers and macroeconomic volatility. (3 intensifying, 2 easing)
“Revenue over the past year impacted by delays in capex announcements by steel manufacturers due to hit on their profitability and macroeconomic volatility... Revenue from Operations Q1CY25 764.2 Q1CY24 1,470.6 -48.0%”
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