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John Cockerill
Our verdict on John Cockerill isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
The company showed significant sequential improvement in EBITDA margin, reaching 2.4% in Q2CY25 from -0.6% in Q1CY25, moving toward the 5% target. (1 in progress, 1 met, 2 exceeded across 4 tracked commitments)
“If I look at your historical financial performance... reporting an EBITDA margin of 5%, is that something that we can expect if revenues were to revert to those levels... Marc Dumont: So yes, if the revenue comes, we are aiming to this.”
Management confirmed the acquisition of a 100% stake in JCMI effective January 1, 2026, with the consideration confirmed at not exceeding EUR 50 million via a 5-year deferred payment facility. (1 met across 1 tracked commitment)
“JCIL to acquire 100% stake in JCMI for a consideration not exceeding EUR 50 million. It has been agreed to provide deferred payment facility of a period of five years for JCIL to make the payment of the purchase consideration, free of any interest payment obligation.”
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How durable is the business?
The segment is seeing a massive recovery in order intake, which reached INR 5.86 billion in Q3, nearly 10 times the first quarter's intake. Revenue growth accelerated to 18% in Q3 from 7.5% in Q2, driven by better project execution and site readiness. (5 expanding across 1 engine)
“Ending the year with the backlog close to INR 11.9 billion after a sharp acceleration in the second half, this is 74% increase compared to the previous year.”
The segment is expanding its share of the order book, with the value services order book tripling in a year. Management is targeting this segment to reach at least 20% of the total order book to drive recurring, higher-margin revenue. (5 expanding across 1 engine)
“The revenue portion from value services was close to 30% for the entire metals activities... The contribution in terms of margin of value services is around 40% for 2024 and will represent next year half of the profitability of the group.”
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Where does growth come from?
The company is on track to commission a new specialized coating facility at Taloja in early 2026 to drive the high-margin services segment. (1 new trend, 4 steady across 5 signals, 2 leading indicators)
“The commissioning of our rolls coating facility at Taloja in 2026 is the clearest demonstration of this strategy.”
The company holds a significant portion of the Indian market for downstream steel equipment, which involves the final processing stages of steel production.
“I would estimate being between 15% to 20% market share in the downstream area.”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of John Cockerill
What could break the thesis?
The order book has significantly depleted from previously reported levels (INR 11,869 Mn) to INR 6,561 Mn as of March 31, 2025. New order inflows have been slower-than-expected for several quarters, increasing pressure on execution to maintain revenue. (2 intensifying, 3 easing, 2 high-severity)
“Key customers include Tata Steel, Jindal, JSW, ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel”
Global headwinds from Chinese steel overcapacity and price dumping have stalled new capacity expansions, though Indian government anti-dumping duties are providing some relief. (1 stable)
“Raw Material Cost 1,617.7”
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