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Himadri Special
Our verdict on Himadri Special isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
The company reported an increase in EBITDA per kg from Rs. 15 to Rs. 17 over the last year, which translates to Rs. 17,000 per tonne, exceeding the prior guidance of Rs. 16,500. (3 exceeded across 3 tracked commitments)
“So, our EBITDA per metric tonne margin is around Rs. 16,500 now... We are confident of this number being maintained, and gradually you will see upward movement in these numbers.”
Management successfully commenced trial production for the 70,000 MTPA brownfield expansion in December 2025, meeting the Q3FY26 timeline. (3 met across 3 tracked commitments)
“So for the next year, you can look at around 85% capacity utilization for speciality carbon.”
See the full cited Management analysis of Himadri Special
How durable is the business?
The company is doubling its specialty carbon black capacity to 130,000 MT per annum, which will make it the world's largest single-site producer of this high-margin material. (1 expanding)
“In speciality carbon black, the brownfield expansion project is progressing well, set to more than double our capacity to 130,000 MT per annum by the end of Q3 FY26, Positioning Himadri as the world's largest single-site producer of speciality carbon black.”
The company is doubling its specialty carbon black capacity to 1,30,000 MTPA, which will make it the largest single-site producer globally. (1 expanding)
“our speciality carbon black capacity will more than double to 1,30,000 metric tonnes, making it the single largest speciality carbon black site in the world”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Himadri Special
Where does growth come from?
The project is entering a critical execution phase with a massive Rs. 1,125 Cr capex commitment and a clear roadmap to reach 2,00,000 MTPA in 5-6 years. (3 new trend, 2 steady across 5 signals, 1 leading indicator)
“Successfully commenced operations at our first anode material production facility (200 MTPA) at Mahistikry, West Bengal in April 2026.”
The expansion project is on track with a steady timeline and confirmed capex of Rs. 220 Cr to reach 1,30,000 MTPA, making it the world's largest single-site facility for this material. (5 steady across 5 signals, 1 leading indicator)
“Commenced commercial operations of 70,000 MTPA Speciality Carbon Black Line at Mahistikry, West Bengal... Himadri’s total carbon black capacity now stands at 250,000 MTPA, including 130,000 MTPA of speciality carbon black”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Himadri Special
What could break the thesis?
The risk is INTENSIFYING as the project enters the critical commencement phase. Operations are scheduled to begin in Q1FY26 with a gradual ramp-up. The company is committing ₹306 Cr to this turnaround, which involves a complete rebranding and modernization. (1 intensifying, 2 easing, 2 stable, 1 high-severity)
“Birla Tyres - turnaround opportunity... Additional Capex will be incurred over next 3 years for upgradation, modernization and full capacity commencement”
The risk is STABLE but remains high. The company is moving from R&D to the 'Demonstration and Commercialisation' phase. The first commercial LFP plant (40,000 MTPA) is now scheduled for Q3FY27, representing a significant execution milestone. (5 stable, 1 high-severity)
“To produce 200,000 MTPA of Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) Cathode Active Material... in a phased manner over the next 5-6 years”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Himadri Special
Read the full thesis on Himadri Special
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