Vedanta (500295) Jan 2026 Filing Analysis

Q1 production was 93,200 kboepd, slightly below the annual guidance range, but management maintains the 95-100 kboepd target for the full year. (1 in progress across 1 tracked commitment)

The ASP project is in the final stage of commissioning as of January 2026, representing a minor delay from the mid-Q3 target. (1 revised across 1 tracked commitment)

Commissioning of Kuraloi Coal Mine and Hot Acid Leaching Plant targeted for Q4FY26. — target: Commissioning (+3 more commitments)

Targeting project ramp-up for Gamsberg Phase 2 in Q1FY27. — target: Project ramp up (+1 more commitment)

Zinc India continues to be the most profitable segment with an EBITDA margin of 54%. While saleable metal production dipped 6%, revenue grew 4% due to higher silver prices and cost optimization. (1 expanding across 1 engine)

Vedanta's scale is expanding through record production volumes in Aluminum and Zinc, and a 10% increase in consolidated revenue for the full year. (3 expanding)

The Aluminium segment is expanding its production capacity and improving profitability. Metal production reached a record 2,422 kt for FY25, and EBITDA margin per ton jumped significantly in Q4. (5 expanding across 1 engine)

Zinc India achieved its highest ever annual mined metal production and improved its cost position, moving further down the global cost curve. (5 expanding)

While primarily India-focused, the company is expanding its international presence, specifically through the Gamsberg Phase-II expansion in Zinc International. (4 expanding)

The expansion is entering the commissioning phase with the first 1.5 million ton train at Lanjigarh already in production and the second train starting commissioning. (5 accelerating across 5 signals, 3 leading indicators)

Production is accelerating significantly, driven by the Gamsberg mine, with a 52% YoY increase in quarterly mined metal production. (3 accelerating, 2 new trend across 5 signals)

The demerger process is moving into the final legal stages following favorable shareholder and creditor votes in February 2025. The company has now moved to the second motion petition before the NCLT. (2 accelerating, 2 steady, 1 new trend across 5 signals)

The company secured two additional high-value critical mineral blocks in Q1, bringing the total to 10 blocks since the mission launch, covering nickel, cobalt, and rare earths. (2 steady, 1 new trend across 3 signals)

The demerger process is in its final stages with the final NCLT hearing scheduled for November 12, 2025, moving toward completion by the end of FY26. (2 steady across 2 signals)

The demerger is progressing through regulatory stages, having received favorable shareholder and creditor votes. It has moved to the second motion petition before the NCLT, with a target completion date of September 2025. (4 stable, 1 easing, 2 high-severity)

While LME prices have softened, the risk is partially offset by a material decline in input costs (alumina and coal) and increased production of value-added products which command higher premiums. (4 stable, 1 easing, 1 high-severity)

The risk is intensifying as the unspent capex has ballooned to approximately $6 billion (₹50,747 crore) as of June 2025, with critical projects like the 250 KTPA Zinc Smelter and Tailing Recycling having zero spend to date despite being approved. (1 intensifying, 4 easing, 2 high-severity)

VRL debt has reduced from $8.9 billion to $4.8 billion over three years. Upcoming obligations for the remainder of the year total $750 million ($320M principal, $430M interest). (1 easing, 1 stable, 1 high-severity)

Capex remains high at $1.5bn for FY25, with significant unspent amounts on key projects like the Lanjigarh refinery and Balco expansion, indicating ongoing execution pressure. (1 stable)