AI-generated · cited to primary sources · not investment advice · How we research
Our verdict on Larsen & Toubro isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Management remains confident in achieving the 8.5% target for the P&M business, despite current softness in Energy margins, due to expected execution pick-up in H2. (1 met, 2 in progress across 3 tracked commitments)
“With the execution momentum expected to pick up in H2, we are reasonably confident to achieve our full year EBITDA margin target of 8.5%.”
Q1 FY26 revenues stood at Rs 637 billion, which is approximately 23.6% of the annual target of Rs 2.7 trillion. (3 in progress, 1 met across 4 tracked commitments)
“We expect our group order inflows and group revenues to grow at 10% and 15% respectively for FY26.”
Management has reached an in-principle understanding with the Government of Telangana for the acquisition of its entire stake in L&T Hyderabad Metro. The government will pay Rs 2,000 crores for equity and assume Rs 13,000 crores of debt. (1 in progress across 1 tracked commitment)
“The contours of the final agreement are being finalized, and we expect this transaction to get consummated by the end of the current fiscal FY '26.”
The remaining 9-month prospect pipeline is reported at Rs 14.8 trillion. Combined with Q1 inflows, the visibility remains strong. (1 in progress across 1 tracked commitment)
“Prospects pipeline of Rs 19 trn for FY26 provides order inflow growth visibility”
The trailing 12-month ROE has improved to 17% as of June 2025, moving closer to the 18% target for the end of the Lakshya plan. (3 in progress, 1 revised across 4 tracked commitments)
“And the plan to reduce the debt levels from Rs.12,000 crores to Rs.8,000 crores is a combination of two things. We are yet to get around Rs.2,100 crores of the State Government interest-free loan assistance and also TOD monetization we expect it to happen over the near term”
See the full cited Management analysis of Larsen & Toubro
L&T's scale advantage has strengthened further with a record-high order book, providing multi-year revenue visibility and allowing the company to be more selective in bidding. (2 expanding)
“The order book at Rs 5,791 billion is up 22% on a y-o-y basis. This record order book provides a multi-year revenue visibility.”
The Energy segment is seeing massive growth in order prospects, particularly in international hydrocarbon and green energy markets, with a significant jump in the pipeline value. (5 expanding)
“Order Book ₹ 7332 bn Record High.”
The company achieved its best Net Working Capital (NWC) position in a decade, significantly improving cash conversion and financial resilience. (4 expanding)
“Our Group Net Working Capital at 11% in March '25 is the best we have reported in the last 10 years.”
The international mix is shifting further toward the Middle East, which now accounts for 81% of the international order book, driven by energy transition and industrialization in the region. (5 expanding across 3 engines)
“IT & Technology Services Segment Net Revenue: 12% Q3 FY26 135.3. 18.7% EBITDA Margin 19.7%.”
Return on Equity (ROE) improved to 17.2%, up 110 basis points, indicating better capital efficiency and financial health. (1 expanding, 1 stable)
“Net Debt / Equity Ratio Dec-25 0.54.”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Larsen & Toubro
Cash flow generation has seen a massive reversal from a negative position last year to a robust positive inflow this quarter due to aggressive customer collections. (5 accelerating across 5 signals)
“Cash flow from Operations (excl Financial Services business) 9M FY26 184 >100%”
The company is diversifying into high-tech future industries including Green Hydrogen (clean fuel) and Semiconductor Design (computer chips).
“Electrolyser Manufacturing, Semiconductor Design”
Realty order inflow (pre-sales) is accelerating sharply. In Q2 FY26, Realty order inflow was ₹ 14.7 bn, up 85% from ₹ 8.0 bn in Q2 FY25. (2 accelerating across 2 signals)
“Order Inflow Energy Segment 9M FY26 1156.3 >100%”
Energy projects (Hydrocarbon and CarbonLite) saw robust quarterly inflows of Rs 460 billion, though margins are currently under pressure due to legacy projects. (1 steady across 1 signal)
“5.5% EBITDA Margin 6.1% Margin uptick driven by improved execution efficiency”
Growth in the Energy segment's profit margins is currently being held back by cost overruns on older, competitively priced projects that are finishing up. — Energy EBITDA Margin: -240 bps YoY
“Subdued Hydrocarbon margin primarily due to cost overruns in certain competitively priced projects nearing completion”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Larsen & Toubro
This risk is easing significantly as the Government of Telangana has agreed in principle to take over the debt and equity, which will lead to a divestment and removal of the asset from L&T's balance sheet. (1 easing)
“the Government will take over the Hyderabad Metro SPV by refinancing the current debt and acquiring the entire equity stake... we expect this transaction to get consummated by the end of the current fiscal FY '26.”
Slow-moving orders remain a small but persistent part of the portfolio at 2% of the total order book, primarily driven by the aforementioned JJM funding issues. (2 stable)
“As of June ‘25, the slow-moving orders constitute around 2% of the order book.”
The risk is easing as management notes that even with lower oil prices, countries like Kuwait and Qatar are committed to spending on LNG and energy transition. They identify $55/barrel as the threshold for potential decision delays, which is currently below market rates. (1 easing)
“I don't see that is sensitive to oil prices at all... even if the oil prices are on the lower range, they will still go ahead... USD 55 per barrel would be the threshold for Brent.”
Concentration risk is intensifying. The Middle East now accounts for 40% of Q4 FY25 order inflows (up from 34% for the full year) and 37% of the total order book. (4 intensifying, 1 easing)
“Middle East, 40% [of Q4 FY25 Order Inflow]... Middle East, 37% [of Order Book]”
Working capital management has improved significantly, with Net Working Capital (NWC) as a percentage of revenue hitting a decade low of 11.0%, providing a buffer against cost pressures. (1 easing)
“NWC / Revenue 11.0% Lowest in a decade”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Larsen & Toubro
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