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PCBL Chemical
Our verdict on PCBL Chemical isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
Aquapharm successfully commissioned the PBTC plant and completed the de-bottlenecking of the acetyl chloride line during the quarter. (2 met, 1 missed, 2 in progress across 5 tracked commitments)
“We look forward to end this financial year with the Rs. 75 crores of EBITDA overall, the global business for nine-months’ basis. So, that is an exit we are looking at today.”
As of September 2025 (FY25 exit/FY26 start), the company reported FY25 sales volume of 5,96,262 MT, showing a 7% CAGR since FY15 and progressing toward the FY26 target. (1 in progress across 1 tracked commitment)
“We should be doing about 650,000 tons, which is about 9%-10% increase over our FY '25 volumes... we are confident of achieving 650-660 KTPA, correct? Raj Gupta: Yes, we are.”
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How durable is the business?
Power generation and external sales reached record highs, with external sales volume growing 14% YoY, enhancing the company's cost-offsetting capabilities. (3 expanding across 1 engine)
“Power generation increased by 28% YoY from 161 MUs to 206 MUs, with an external sales volume growing by around 33% YoY to 125 MUs”
The segment is expanding its capacity significantly, with plans to double capacity across products in phases, adding 150,000 tons. (5 expanding across 2 engines)
“Specialty Black sales volume increased by 17% YoY during the quarter”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of PCBL Chemical
Where does growth come from?
The shift toward high-margin Specialty Black is accelerating, with volume share increasing from 1% in FY15 to 11% in FY25, supported by a new 20,000 MTPA line added this year. (5 accelerating across 5 signals, 1 leading indicator)
“Pre- commissioning activity for Specialty Black 20,000 MTPA new line has started”
PCBL is accelerating its capacity expansion roadmap, moving from a current 790 KTPA to a target of over 1 million MTPA by FY28, with a near-term jump to 880 KTPA by the end of FY26. (2 accelerating, 1 new trend, 2 steady across 5 signals, 2 leading indicators)
“We have commissioned 60,000 MTPA brownfield expansion of rubber carbon black at our Tamil Nadu plant. This takes our total installed capacity to 8,50,000 MTPA”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of PCBL Chemical
What could break the thesis?
EBITDA per ton has dropped from historical levels of Rs. 20,000 to approximately Rs. 16,000 due to U.S. tariffs and pricing pressure from low-priced Russian imports and spot market competition. (3 intensifying, 2 easing, 3 high-severity)
“Well, third quarter, we had Rs. 13,800 EBITDA per ton. And this number is for 9-months Rs. 15,300/ ton.”
Export volumes for Carbon Black continue to decline, dropping from 59,132 MT in Q3FY25 to 51,656 MT in Q3FY26 (a 12.6% decrease). Management notes a 'challenging environment' persists. (1 intensifying, 4 easing, 1 high-severity)
“Given the uncertainty around global trade policies, particularly the U.S. tariff around 50% on India, we saw very cautious behavior from customers in the U.S.”
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