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GE Vernova T&D
Our verdict on GE Vernova T&D isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
The order backlog has further expanded to INR 129.6 billion as of June 2025, representing a 2% growth quarter-on-quarter from the previous high base. (1 exceeded, 2 in progress across 3 tracked commitments)
“** excludes VSC HVDC Khavda South Olpad order from Adani Order to be booked in subsequent quarters”
Management confirmed that two specific HVDC projects (South Olpad-Khavda and Barmer-South Kalamb) are expected to be finalized within the current financial year. (2 in progress, 1 met across 3 tracked commitments)
“Sandeep Zanzaria: So Umesh, we expect that both these orders to be finalized in this financial year. ... Umesh Raut: Okay. So by March 2026, is that correct? Sandeep Zanzaria: Yes.”
Management has proposed a total dividend payout of 1.3 BINR for FY 2025-26, which is a specific aggregate target rather than a per-share commitment, reflecting continued shareholder returns. (1 revised, 1 met across 2 tracked commitments)
“but definitely, if you look at about INR 1,500 crores of quarterly revenue, then we are looking at somewhere between INR5,500 crores and INR6,000 crores of annual revenue this year, which is again going to be close to about a 35% growth over last year.”
Management expects a decision on the INR 3,000 crore Related Party Transaction (RPT) order by Q4. — target: Decision by Q4
“We expect the decision by Q4 in the current scenario, however, it may change depending on the customer's plan.”
Expanding existing capacities for GIS & AIS products at Hosur and Padappai facilities by up to 25%. — target: 25% capacity increase (+1 more commitment)
“Expanding existing capacities for GIS & AIS products at Hosur and Padappai facilities expanding capacity upto 25%”
See the full cited Management analysis of GE Vernova T&D
How durable is the business?
Profitability has surged as Profit Before Tax (PBT) grew 3.1x over the year, driven by higher revenue and better cost absorption. (5 expanding)
“Profit before tax* Q3'25 17.7% (1.9) to Q3'26 27.0% (4.6)”
Exports continue to be a high-margin focus area, with the company expanding its geographic reach into Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East. (5 expanding)
“Q3'26 Sales : 17,006... Domestic 12,303, 72%”
The order backlog has more than doubled, significantly increasing the company's scale and revenue visibility for future years. (5 expanding)
“Order Backlog Dec'25 143.8 (INR in billions)”
The company is reinforcing its technological moat by investing INR 1,400 million in new manufacturing lines for HVDC Thyristor and VSC Valves to support India's energy transition. (2 expanding)
“This is where HVDC transmission becomes not just useful but essential. With our HVDC solutions, we are well positioned to support India's renewable evacuation backbone.”
The technology moat is expanding into green energy solutions with the introduction of SF6-free switchgear and localized HVDC valve manufacturing. (1 expanding)
“When we talk about SF6-free technology, GE Vernova has been pioneer in developing this technology... our products are market leader in terms of technology.”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of GE Vernova T&D
Where does growth come from?
Order intake is accelerating sharply, growing 86% for the full year, driven by high-voltage equipment for PGCIL and private players like Adani and Jindal. (4 accelerating across 4 signals)
“Supply of 765kV 500 MVA ICTs from PGCIL... Supply of 765kV 500 MVA ICTs from a private TBCB developer”
Quarterly revenue grew significantly, driven by the successful execution of existing projects in the transmission and distribution space. — Revenue: 58% YoY
“Revenue +58% 17.0 Q3'26”
The company is successfully transitioning customers to Gas Insulated Switchgear (GIS), a more compact and modern technology for power substations.
“Commissioned First F35-41 GIS model 66 kV GIS Bays... Commissioned 400 kV 15 GIS Bays”
The private sector has become the dominant customer segment, representing 62% of the total order backlog, indicating strong traction with non-government clients. (3 new trend across 3 signals)
“Orders in Hand : 143,840... Private 89,970, 63%”
Revenue growth is accelerating significantly, with a 39% year-on-year increase in the current quarter compared to the same period last year. (1 accelerating across 1 signal)
“Profit before tax* 27.0% 4.6 Q3'26”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of GE Vernova T&D
What could break the thesis?
The company is actively expanding its export footprint into Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East, aiming to maintain a 30% export mix in the long term. (4 easing, 1 stable)
“Q3'26 Orders : 29,361 Domestic 86% Exports 14%”
Management acknowledged some 'softness' in the pipeline during H1 due to industry-wide ROW issues and slower tendering, but expects a pickup in H2 as the National Committee of Transmission identifies new projects. (1 stable)
“Umesh, we have seen some softness in the pipeline... we have seen challenges with respect to industry for ROW issues or slower tendering. But I'm expecting it to pick up because the National Committee of Transmission, has identified multiple projects.”
The risk is easing as order bookings for Q1 FY26 reached INR 16.2 billion, a 57% increase year-on-year, and the order backlog expanded to a record INR 129.6 billion. (2 easing)
“Our order book remains strong in Q1 as we saw bookings of INR16.2 billion, up 57% year-on-year compared to INR10.3 billion in the quarter ended June '24.”
The risk is stable; while not explicitly quantified this quarter, management emphasized 'operational excellence' and 'time-bound' commissioning to mitigate customer-side delays. (1 stable)
“In terms of gas insulated switch gears, we have been working with data center customers, again working against tight timelines, focusing on operational excellence and delivering to our customers' expectations.”
Management indicates that while incremental pricing growth has stabilized, they are now able to pass on raw material price increases to customers. (1 stable)
“If there is an increase in raw material prices, we are able to pass on. But now the incremental growth in pricing is not so much there.”
See the full cited Risk analysis of GE Vernova T&D
GE Vernova T&D analysis by filing period
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