AI-generated · cited to primary sources · not investment advice
Agarwal Indl. (531921) Mar 2025 Filing Analysis
Does management do what it says?
Management reported that EBITDA per ton for the first nine months of FY25 is already above Rs. 4,200, exceeding the original full-year guidance. (2 exceeded, 1 met, 2 missed across 5 tracked commitments)
“The company has targeted around 20% year-on-year growth in both revenue and volume.”
The current share of volume from own vessels is between 50% to 60%, falling short of the 65%-70% target previously set for the year. (2 missed, 2 met, 1 revised across 5 tracked commitments)
“Basically, we will be trying to achieve that percentage, but I assume 60%-65% would be a good number in terms of getting the product through your own vessels”
See the full cited Management analysis of Agarwal Indl.
How durable is the business?
Profitability per unit has improved significantly. EBITDA per ton for the first nine months is approximately Rs. 4,200, which is higher than the previous full-year guidance of Rs. 3,900. (1 expanding)
“So in first nine months EBITDA per ton is already above 4,200. So are you still maintaining the full year EBITDA per ton guidance of 3,900? ... No, I think it should be at the same level of nine months, it is around 4,200.”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Agarwal Indl.
Where does growth come from?
The company has successfully inducted its 11th vessel, MT AQUILO, increasing total fleet capacity to approximately 114,000 MT, supporting its strategy to handle 60-65% of imports via owned vessels. (2 accelerating across 2 signals)
“The company has inducted its 11th vessel, MT AQUILO, with a carrying capacity of 11,500 expanding its fleet under AICL Overseas FZ-LLC to 11 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 1,14,000 MT approximately.”
Management has moderated its volume growth expectations for FY25 from an initial 20% target to approximately 10-15% due to election-related delays in infrastructure projects, though they maintain a long-term goal of doubling volumes in 3 years. (1 decelerating, 1 reversing across 2 signals)
“Assuming that we will be considering completing 6 lakhs tons, but maybe due to the ongoing government scenario in the last 2-3 months, we may end up 10%-15% from the last year’s volume that we have done.”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Agarwal Indl.
What could break the thesis?
EASING. Revenue for the 9-month period increased by 16.8% YoY to Rs. 1,575.49 crores. Volume growth for the 9-month period was 20.03%, reaching 350,000 tons, showing a recovery from previous disruptions. (1 easing)
“Revenue for FY 9 months 25 were Rs. 1,575.49 crores reflecting a 16.80% increase... Volume, the company has recorded a sales of approximately 350,000 tons of bitumen an! allied products reflecting a notable 20.03% growth”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Agarwal Indl.
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