AI-generated · cited to primary sources · not investment advice · How we research
Vaibhav Global
Our verdict on Vaibhav Global isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
Germany operations achieved EBITDA breakeven in Q3 FY25, which falls within H2 FY25. (4 met, 1 missed across 5 tracked commitments)
“We expect a robust performance in FY '25 and achieve 14% to 17% revenue growth with strong operating leverage.”
Digital sales contributed 43% of B2C sales in Q1 FY26, remaining on track for the 50% target by FY27. (1 in progress across 1 tracked commitment)
“We are on path to achieve 50% sales mix from digital businesses by FY ‘27.”
The company aims to reduce the customer acquisition cost recovery period to 3 to 6 months. — target: 3 to 6 months
“Our aim is to bring that down to within 3 to 6 months of the acquisition of the customer.”
The company expects lab-grown diamond sales to be in the double digits (10-12%) for the foreseeable future. — target: 10-12%
“So, we expect it to be double digit for about 10%, 12% for foreseeable future.”
See the full cited Management analysis of Vaibhav Global
How durable is the business?
TV revenue grew to Rs. 1,900 crores in FY25 from Rs. 1,769 crores in FY24, showing steady growth. (1 expanding)
“TV Revenue: 1,769 (FY24) to 1,900 (FY25)”
Digital revenue grew to Rs. 1,314 crores in FY25 from Rs. 1,145 crores in FY24, maintaining a strong growth trajectory. (5 expanding)
“Digital Revenue: 1,145 (FY24) to 1,314 (FY25)”
Gross margins remained robust at 63.1% for FY25, demonstrating the continued effectiveness of the vertically integrated supply chain. (1 stable, 1 expanding)
“Gross margin (%) 62.0% (FY24) | 63.1% (FY25)”
TV revenue grew 6.7% year-over-year to INR 487 crores, showing steady performance. (3 expanding, 2 stable across 2 engines)
“TV revenue stood at INR589 crores, growing 7.7% year-over-year, while digital revenue increased by 11.2% year-over-year to INR423 crores. Digital now accounts for 42% of total revenue”
The lab-grown diamond portfolio has scaled significantly, now contributing 11% of group sales compared to 1% in the same quarter last year. (1 expanding)
“successful scale-up of our lab-grown diamond jewellery portfolio, which contributes to 11% of group's overall sales in Q1, up from 1% in the same quarter last year.”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Vaibhav Global
Where does growth come from?
OTT sales showed strong growth through FY25 but experienced a decline in H1 FY26, indicating a potential reversal or seasonal fluctuation. (1 reversing, 4 steady across 5 signals)
“Digital contribution was 42% of B2C revenue, and we remain on track to reach 50% digital contribution by end of FY '27.”
Lab-grown diamonds have scaled rapidly to 8.9% of quarterly sales, up from 0.2% a year ago, showing strong acceleration. (4 accelerating, 1 new trend across 5 signals)
“Yes. LGD is now double digit, roughly around 10.7% of our retail revenue. And average selling price is roughly around $250 for lab grown.”
Consolidated revenue for Q4 FY24 was INR 789 crores, representing a 14% year-over-year growth, with full-year revenue crossing the INR 3,000 crore mark for the first time. (2 accelerating, 1 decelerating, 2 steady across 5 signals, 1 leading indicator)
“Our consolidated quarterly revenue crossed INR1,000 crore mark for the first time, reaching INR1,066 crores, a 9.1% Y-o-Y growth.”
The unique customer base grew to 580,000 as of March 31, 2024, a 26% increase year-over-year. (5 accelerating across 5 signals)
“As of March 31, 2024, our unique customer base stood at 580,000, which is 26% higher Y-o-Y.”
Gross margins remained strong at 63.5%, supported by a vertically integrated supply chain and favorable product mix. (3 steady across 3 signals)
“Consistent with our guidance, we maintained strong gross margins at 63.5%, supported by strategic pricing and favourable product mix.”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Vaibhav Global
What could break the thesis?
The company reported 10.2% YoY revenue growth in Q2 FY26, suggesting an easing of demand pressures compared to previous periods. (1 easing, 1 stable, 1 high-severity)
“Due to softness in overall consumer confidence, combined with steeply higher precious metal prices, consumer deferred their purchases. This had a direct impact on core TJC's growth.”
TV revenue showed modest growth of 1% year-over-year, indicating continued pressure on volume-based growth in the TV segment. (1 stable, 1 easing, 1 intensifying)
“I have few questions quarterly sales volume for TV declined from 1.74 million to 1.71 million units and digital volume dropped.”
Trajectory is STABLE to INTENSIFYING as management revised revenue guidance downward from 8-12% to 7-9% due to consumer sentiment. (2 intensifying, 3 easing)
“However, we still had 489 basis points increase in our overall product costs due to tariff on other products.”
TV network reached 127 million households and grew 6% in the first half of the year, showing recovery in momentum. (1 easing)
“In the Q2, our TV network reached 127 million households. As of 30th September 2025, our unique customer base stood at 7,14,000, up 5% Y-o-Y and the highest in our history.”
Gross margins remained stable at 63.5% YoY, indicating effective management of product costs despite potential tariff pressures. (1 stable)
“Gross Profit (Rs. Cr) and Margin (%): 63.5% (Q2 FY25) | 63.5% (Q2 FY26)”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Vaibhav Global
Read the full thesis on Vaibhav Global
AI-generated informational research only. ThesisLoop is not investment advice, a stock recommendation, or a guarantee of returns.