Sterlite Tech.

The originally scheduled amounts were superseded by a substantially larger FY26 open order book. Management reported FY26 open orders of INR 7,309 crore, with INR 1,468 crore scheduled for Q1 FY27 and the balance for Q2 FY27 and beyond. (1 exceeded across 1 tracked commitment)

The total patent portfolio reached 780+ patents and 21 new patents were filed in Q4 FY26. Compared with the earlier Q3 milestone of 23 new patents, the cumulative portfolio target was maintained, while ongoing quarterly patent activity continued. (1 exceeded across 1 tracked commitment)

Both tracked indicators improved versus FY26: global ex-China OFC market share increased from 8% to 9%, and optical connectivity attach rate increased from 15% to 16%. (1 met, 1 in progress across 2 tracked commitments)

STL reported that the Data Centre and Enterprise product suite had reached a 20% revenue contribution in 9M FY26 and stated that it was progressing toward significant medium-term revenue contribution. (1 in progress across 1 tracked commitment)

Maintain technology leadership in next-generation optical platforms.

The technology moat broadened from 750-plus patents in Q2 FY26 to more than 785 patents in the later baseline, while new products such as Multiverse multi-core fibre, ultra-high-density Celesta cables, hollow-core fibre and AI-powered fibre sensing were being developed. This represents a positive strengthening of intellectual property and product differentiation. (2 expanding)

Optical Networking profitability improved materially within the older document period: H1 FY26 EBITDA margin rose to 14.1% from 12.0% in the prior year. Management also stated that operational EBITDA margin reached 16.7% in Q2 FY26, compared with 11.2% in Q2 FY25, although reported margins were reduced by about 300 basis points because of US tariffs. The later baseline reports an approximately 21.8% segment EBITDA margin in Q1 FY27, so the positive margin trajectory continued. (5 expanding)

STL is broadening its technology portfolio to address future demand for lower latency, higher density and chip-level optical connectivity. New areas include hollow-core fibre, multi-core fibre, 13,000-fibre-count products, co-packaged optics and near-packaged optics. (1 expanding)

Optical Networking was already the dominant business in H1 FY26, generating Rs. 1,941 Cr in revenue. It remains the core engine, but its share of the explicitly reported H1 FY26 segment revenue was approximately 96.8% (Rs. 1,941 Cr of Rs. 2,006 Cr), compared with approximately 96.2% in the baseline Q1 FY27. This indicates a broadly stable-to-slightly higher share over time; the latest baseline also shows a much larger absolute revenue scale. (5 expanding)

North America increased from 25% of revenue in H1 FY25 to 33% in H1 FY26, an 8 percentage-point expansion. In the later baseline, the Americas represented 53.5% of revenue, confirming that this became the company's largest and fastest-growing geographic market. This is a major positive geographic shift, driven by telecom, broadband and data-centre demand. (5 expanding)

Order intake more than doubled year-on-year to Rs. 1,340 crore in Q2 FY26. The company also reported multi-year European supply agreements, renewed US Tier-1 telecom inflows, and several data-centre opportunities in the pipeline. The latest quarter therefore shows a clear acceleration in demand signals. (4 accelerating, 1 new trend across 5 signals, 1 leading indicator)

The total order book increased by Rs. 300 crore quarter-on-quarter, from Rs. 4,888 crore in Q1 FY26 to Rs. 5,188 crore in Q2 FY26. This indicates positive and improving near-term revenue visibility, although the available history is too short to establish a longer acceleration pattern. (5 accelerating across 5 signals)

Estimated global data-centre capacity demand increases from 82 GW in 2025 to 219 GW in 2030, while AI workload demand rises from 44 GW to 156 GW. AI workloads therefore account for roughly 71% of projected 2030 demand. This is a large, clearly expanding multi-year opportunity, although the data is a forecast series rather than quarterly company performance. (5 accelerating across 5 signals)

The company is developing next-generation connectivity products, including hollow-core fiber, multi-core fiber, 13,000-fiber-count solutions, co-packaged optics and near-packaged optics. These products target lower delay, faster transmission and much higher data-centre density.

Optical connectivity attach rate increased from 20% in FY25 to 22% in H1 FY26. This indicates a steady improvement in the share of higher-value connectivity products sold alongside fibre cable. The company also states that increasing the attach rate remains a FY26 priority. (2 steady, 1 decelerating, 1 accelerating, 1 new trend across 5 signals)

Customer concentration risk remained material, although geographic concentration reduced. Europe contributed approximately 42% of H1 FY26 revenue and North America 33%; the company described this as balanced, but these two regions together represented 75% of revenue. STL Digital had only 33 customers and highlighted a multi-year contract with a leading global information-solutions company, while data-centre adoption was still developing through pilots and discussions. Management did not disclose customer-level revenue shares, so the specific hyperscaler exposure could not be quantified. The later baseline explicitly identifies high exposure to hyperscalers and one major unnamed hyperscaler, indicating that the risk remained high or increased. (5 intensifying, 2 high-severity)

Balance-sheet risk was clearly present in Q2 FY26: net debt was INR 1,313 crore, debt-to-equity was 0.64 and net debt-to-EBITDA was 2.33x. Finance cost increased by approximately INR 5 crore quarter-on-quarter, and management expects quarterly finance cost of INR 47-52 crore. The company aims to reduce net debt-to-EBITDA below 2x, but this had not yet been achieved. Against the later baseline, which highlights approximately INR 1,000 crore of annual planned investment, the debt burden makes funding and execution risk more important. (5 intensifying, 5 high-severity)

Tariff pressure intensified in the latest reported quarter. Management said the US tariff reset reduced reported EBITDA margin by around 300 basis points, or 3.1% of EBITDA, and that STL bore most of the cost on fixed-price contracts. At the same time, underlying operational EBITDA improved from 11.2% in Q2 FY25 to 14.4% in Q1 FY26 and 16.7% in Q2 FY26. Therefore, the structural margin trend improved, but the immediate external cost shock remained material. Compared with the later Sep 2026 baseline, the risk remains high because the baseline still requires a large expansion from 13.2% FY26 EBITDA margin to at least 27% by FY29. (5 intensifying, 1 high-severity)

The older January 2026 evidence showed recovery rather than deterioration: Q3 revenue was INR 1,257 crore and 9M revenue increased 12% year on year to INR 3,311 crore. Optical Networking revenue also grew to INR 3,115 crore for 9M, supported by orders and data-centre demand. However, the business remained cycle-dependent, with optical networking contributing roughly 94% of 9M revenue. Compared with the later baseline, where optical networking was still about 96% of quarterly revenue, the concentration remained high. The risk is therefore stable, not resolved. (2 stable, 2 high-severity)

The order book increased from INR 4,888 crore in Q1 FY26 to INR 5,188 crore in Q2 FY26, but only INR 820 crore was scheduled for Q3 FY26 while INR 4,368 crore was scheduled for FY26 and beyond. This creates execution and timing risk: a substantial majority of the backlog was not due for immediate delivery. Management also acknowledged supply-timing challenges to the US during the quarter. Compared with the later baseline, where about 88% of the much larger order book was scheduled for Q3 FY27 and beyond, the risk remains material and appears more pronounced in the later period. (3 intensifying, 2 easing, 1 high-severity)