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Bharti Airtel
Our verdict on Bharti Airtel isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
The company added about 2 million fiber home passes in the current quarter, which is below the previously guided run rate of 2.5 million. (1 missed across 1 tracked commitment)
“Here, we have stepped up our home pass, to reach 2.5 million homes per quarter run rate.”
Implementation of RBI guidelines for two-factor authentication (2FA) for digital payments effective April 1, 2026. — target: 01.04.2026 (+2 more commitments)
“RBI has released guidelines on digital payment authentication, to be effective from 01.04.2026, mandating two-factor authentication (2FA) for all domestic digital payments.”
Bharti Hexacom expects EBITDAaL margins to continue improving directionally. — target: Directional increase
“Whilst ARPU customers and EBITDAaL margins have improved, there is a reduction in reported revenue due to drop in roaming revenue.”
Airtel Africa share buy-back programme to return remaining $20.3m by March 31, 2026. — target: $20.3 million (+2 more commitments)
“On 22 September 2025, the company entered arrangements with Barclays Capital Securities Limited to facilitate its ongoing share buy-back programme to return the remaining $20.3m on or before 31 March 2026.”
Airtel aims to upgrade 90 million credit-scored customers to postpaid services as part of its premiumization strategy. — target: 90 million customers (+1 more commitment)
“Our strategy is to upgrade 90 million credit scored customers to our postpaid services.”
See the full cited Management analysis of Bharti Airtel
How durable is the business?
India mobile revenue grew 15.3% for the full year, with EBITDAaL margins expanding to 50.7% in Q4. ARPU reached Rs.248 on an equal day basis, driven by 5G migration and premiumization. (5 expanding across 1 engine)
“Africa accounts for about 27% of our revenues, India mobile 53%, India non-mobile 13% and Indus 7%.”
The balance sheet strengthened significantly through aggressive deleveraging, with India net debt to EBITDAaL dropping to 1.5 after prepaying Rs.42,000 Crores of high-cost debt. (5 expanding)
“Airtel is now one of the lowest leveraged telcos globally within the industry, in fact, the external net debt... is almost down to nothing.”
India mobile revenue grew 2.1% sequentially, driven by 'premiumization' (upgrading customers to higher-value plans) and 5G migration, reaching 181 million 5G customers. (1 expanding)
“India excluding passive infra grew at 2.1% sequentially. India mobile delivered another quarter of strong revenue growth.”
The 'War on Waste' program delivered over Rs.2,200 Crores in network opex savings in FY25, further solidifying the company's cost moat. (4 expanding)
“AI dynamically optimizes power for our radio layers... leading to significant cost savings... Nearly 70% of all our customer calls are today handled by self-serving voice bots.”
Broadband and Digital TV are expanding through convergence and IPTV launches. Broadband added 8.1 lakh customers this quarter, while DTH reached record market share. (4 expanding across 1 engine)
“India non-mobile 13%... Broadband saw sustained growth momentum. IPTV is scaling up rapidly and powering our convergence strategy.”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Bharti Airtel
Where does growth come from?
International roaming has emerged as a high-growth focus area, maintaining a strong 30%+ year-over-year growth rate. (1 steady across 1 signal)
“Our efforts are yielding strong outcomes in international roaming revenues, and they are growing at over 30% year-over-year.”
Airtel Finance is seeing accelerating traction. Loan disbursements and credit card issuances are increasing as the service is integrated deeper into the 'Airtel Thanks' app ecosystem. (1 accelerating, 4 new trend across 5 signals)
“Airtel Finance is delivering strong growth in loan disbursements... Monthly loan disbursement run-rate now stands at over Rs.500 crores.”
Airtel is using Artificial Intelligence (AI) to cut costs, specifically reducing tower running costs by 6% over four years. — Site Running Cost: 6% decline over 4 years
“A prime example of this is our site running cost, which have declined by over 6% in last four years despite accelerated rollouts”
The company is facing a slowdown in the overall growth of new smartphone users in the industry, which could limit future subscriber additions. — Industry Net Adds: Slowing
“On the 4G/5G net adds, you are right about the fact that the industry is seeing a slowdown in terms of the total number of net adds the industry was doing a couple of years back”
Network rollout for mobile is decelerating as the major 5G rollout phase nears completion, with management guiding for lower capex in FY25 and FY26. (2 decelerating across 2 signals)
“radio, which has been a substantial part of our capex. This one has decelerated very, very significantly, and we expect it to continue to decelerate next year.”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Bharti Airtel
What could break the thesis?
The risk is easing as the Supreme Court has permitted the government to undertake a comprehensive reassessment and reconciliation of AGR dues, which may reduce the total liability previously calculated with errors. (1 easing, 1 stable, 1 high-severity)
“The AGR issue just does not seem to go away, and now with Vodafone Idea having gotten this AGR relief, and your own AGR payments starting in March, which is about a billion dollars, and you obviously also have recurring spectrum payouts”
The risk is intensifying in terms of capital requirement as the company plans a four-fold increase in capacity to 1 gigawatt, involving significant new investments and partnerships with Google. (2 intensifying)
“The B2B market in India, the top 500 companies account for about 65 to 70% of the overall industry, so it is very concentrated on the top”
The risk is intensifying as the company lost 2 lakh customers this quarter due to structural changes and reduced subsidies on set-top boxes. (1 intensifying, 3 stable)
“On the 4G/5G net adds, you are right about the fact that the industry is seeing a slowdown in terms of the total number of net adds the industry was doing a couple of years back... I think there have been a little bit of sim consolidation that has happened in the industry”
The risk is easing as ARPU has reached Rs. 250, driven by a high mix of postpaid additions (57% of net adds) and 5G adoption, despite the lack of a general tariff hike. (2 easing, 1 stable, 1 intensifying)
“for the first time since before COVID, or for the last five or six years, your revenue growth has fallen to below 10%, and while we do see the evidence of premiumization... the fact is that as the base becomes larger, their ability to drive growth probably ends up becoming smaller and smaller”
The risk is intensifying in terms of capital requirement but management is now prioritizing it. They admitted they are 'not pleased' with 12% share and plan to create substantial capacity in the next 18 months. (3 intensifying, 2 easing)
“So currency volatility is the only risk in Africa, but if you take a long-term view over a 10-12 year period, you typically factor in, let us say, a 5 to 7% devaluation per year and that is the cost of doing business in that continent”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Bharti Airtel
Bharti Airtel analysis by filing period
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