AI-generated · cited to primary sources · not investment advice
Indraprastha Gas (532514) Jul 2025 Filing Analysis
Does management do what it says?
The phase-out is progressing rapidly; DTC bus operations on CNG have dropped from 3,200 last quarter to 2,000 this quarter, with daily sales to DTC falling to ~30,000 kg. (2 in progress across 2 tracked commitments)
“So, in next two years, we are expecting those buses to go out. Whatever is remaining, very less buses are there.”
Management has slightly raised the target for CNG station commissioning to 102 for the fiscal year. (1 revised, 1 in progress across 2 tracked commitments)
“But for the entire year we have a plan of 102 target for commissioning.”
The company is commissioning three LNG retailing stations in the current quarter, with plans for a total of 5-6 stations. — target: 5-6 stations
“On that front also, we are commissioning three stations, hopefully in this quarter they should be commissioned... we are planning for five stations - six more stations strategically along the highways.”
See the full cited Management analysis of Indraprastha Gas
How durable is the business?
The regulatory moat is strengthening with the notification of a single-zone transmission tariff, which is expected to reduce costs by Rs. 0.70 to Rs. 1.30 per SCM. (1 expanding, 1 shifted)
“The PNGRB has recently notified that the transmission tariff for CNG and domestic PNG segments will now fall under a single zone tariff network... Rs. 0.70 to Rs. 1.30 should be the range [of savings].”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Indraprastha Gas
What could break the thesis?
Industrial demand has recovered to 8% growth, while commercial PNG grew 14%, suggesting the slowdown risk is currently easing. (1 easing)
“Industrial PNG volume rose 8%, backed by 419 new industrial connections... Commercial PNG sales increased by 14%”
The company is maintaining a high capex run-rate of Rs. 1,400-1,500 crores for the year, with Q1 spending at Rs. 290 crores, primarily on core infrastructure. (1 stable, 1 intensifying)
“we have taken like on the core business for the annual, the financial year around Rs. 1,400 crores to Rs. 1,500 crores for this year. So, we had incurred around Rs. 290 crores during the Q1 on the CAPEX”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Indraprastha Gas
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