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Ramkrishna Forg.
Our verdict on Ramkrishna Forg. isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
The aluminium forging facility has been successfully commissioned and commercial production has commenced as of Q3 FY26. (1 met across 1 tracked commitment)
“Our aluminium forging has been successfully commissioned, and commercial production has commenced.”
Management has achieved 99.32% training for permanent employees on ESG and Human Rights principles as of the December 2025 reporting period, effectively meeting the target within the 2025 calendar year timeline. (2 met, 3 in progress across 5 tracked commitments)
“Train 100% employees on ESG [and] Human Rights [by] 2025”
See the full cited Management analysis of Ramkrishna Forg.
How durable is the business?
The automotive segment continues to dominate new order wins, securing ₹450 crore in Q3 FY26, with a significant focus on Commercial Vehicles (CV) which accounted for ₹406 crore of that total. (1 expanding)
“In Q3FY26- Auto orders amounting to ₹406 Crores is in CV Segment, ₹26 Crores is in PV Segment and ₹18 Crores is in EV Segment”
The company is aggressively expanding its physical moat, with consolidated forging capacity set to increase to 333,400 MT per annum and casting to 62,400 MT. (5 expanding)
“Total Capacity 3,06,000# ... 19 manufacturing facilities”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Ramkrishna Forg.
Where does growth come from?
The 3000T press specifically for Aluminum Forged Components for EVs is currently under installation, confirming the acceleration into lightweight materials. (3 accelerating, 2 new trend across 5 signals, 1 leading indicator)
“Aluminum Forgings – Production commenced”
Order inflows are accelerating significantly, with the company reporting Rs. 4,600 Crores in new orders for the full year FY25, compared to the previously noted quarterly run-rate. (5 accelerating across 5 signals)
“We are significantly eyeing PV as our growth engine for next couple of years... probably by FY '28, our 10% of the revenue share is going to only come from PV segment.”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Ramkrishna Forg.
What could break the thesis?
Export markets continue to show significant weakness, with Q4 FY25 export revenue dropping 23% year-on-year. While full-year FY25 export revenue was flat (+1%), the sharp quarterly decline indicates the slowdown is intensifying rather than recovering. (5 intensifying, 2 high-severity)
“FY '25, we were north of about Rs. 1,000 crores of revenue. And for the first 9 months, we've clocked about Rs. 480 crores, which basically on a 9-month comparative basis is down more than 40%.”
Profitability remains under severe pressure. Consolidated EBITDA margins dropped from 19.3% in Q4 FY24 to 10.4% in Q4 FY25. Standalone margins also fell from 19.2% to 11.0% in the same period, confirming a sustained downward trend in operational efficiency. (5 intensifying, 1 high-severity)
“PBT & PBT Margin (%)# ... 9M FY25 5.6% 9M FY26 1.6%”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Ramkrishna Forg.
Read the full thesis on Ramkrishna Forg.
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