AI-generated · cited to primary sources · not investment advice · How we research
Our verdict on Yes Bank isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →The CD ratio stood at 86.6%, well within the guided comfort range of 85-90%. (5 met across 5 tracked commitments)
“So, I think this trajectory or range between 85% to 90%... I think this range of 85% to 90% is quite comfortable for us.”
The bank reported operating expenses as a percentage of assets at 2.5% for Q1FY25, meeting the target of staying below 2.6%. (1 met across 1 tracked commitment)
“Credit Card Co-origination with Savings Account expected to Go-live in April’24”
The bank has delivered on its growth targets for these segments, with SME advances growing at 23.8% Y-o-Y and Mid Corporate advances growing at 25.0% Y-o-Y as of Q1FY25. (1 met, 1 exceeded, 1 in progress across 3 tracked commitments)
“Targeting 25%+ CAGR and further intensifying Cross-Sell including Retail Products”
Management confirmed that unsecured stress (specifically in personal loans and credit cards) is expected to remain range-bound for the next two quarters (until March '25). (1 in progress, 1 met across 2 tracked commitments)
“So unsecured will remain at that level for the next 1 or 2 quarters.”
ROA doubled year-on-year to 0.6% for FY25, with a Q4 exit rate of 0.7%, showing progress toward the 1% target. (2 in progress, 1 met across 3 tracked commitments)
“In fact, as we look at our ROA journey of 1% over the next three years, the swing or the delta that will come in is actually going to come materially from the Retail business.”
See the full cited Management analysis of Yes Bank
Non-interest income as a percentage of average assets has meaningfully increased from 1.1% in FY23 to 1.4% in FY25, driven by granular fee income streams. (5 expanding across 1 engine)
“Non Interest Income Q3FY26 1,633; Y-o-Y 8.0%; Total Income 4,098”
The bank's ownership structure is shifting from a rescue-led consortium to a strategic global partnership with Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) acquiring a 20% stake. This transition from the 2020 Reconstruction Scheme to a long-term strategic investor is expected to drive the next phase of profitability and value creation. (1 expanding)
“SMBC to acquire 20% stake from SBI and other Investor Banks; SMBC to become Bank’s largest shareholder... The transaction is a significant milestone to drive YES Bank’s next phase of growth, profitability and value creation, leveraging SMBC’s global expertise”
The bank further strengthened its financial safety net, with the Provision Coverage Ratio (PCR) increasing to 79.7% (excluding technical write-offs) and 87.6% including them, marking a significant improvement from the previous year. (5 expanding)
“PCR at 83.3% in Q3FY26 v/s 81.0% in Q2FY26 and 71.2% in Q3FY25”
RoA reached a milestone of 1.0% in Q3FY26, a significant jump from 0.6% in the same quarter last year, reflecting the success of the turnaround strategy. (1 expanding)
“Return on Assets (RoA) Q3FY26 1.0% v/s FY25 0.6%”
The technological moat is being augmented by SMBC's global governance and credit rating standards. While the bank maintains its digital leadership, the partnership aims to unlock new business opportunities through cross-border expertise and access to global corporate clients. (3 expanding, 1 stable)
“Market Leadership – YBL processes ~1 in 3 Digital Payment transaction in India; UPI Payments #1 Payee PSP (55.2% market share)”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Yes Bank
Capital levels have dipped slightly due to growth and risk-weight changes, but remain healthy and are expected to rise following warrant exercises. (1 decelerating, 2 steady across 3 signals)
“CET 1 Ratio at 12.2% ... Pro-forma basis, CET-I% as of March 31, 2024 including these proceeds [Warrants] is at 12.7%”
The bank is successfully reducing the drag from mandated low-yield deposits by meeting Priority Sector Lending (PSL) targets organically. (5 accelerating across 5 signals)
“Negligible Shortfall in PSL sub-categories in FY24 ... SMF [Shortfall] 0.0%”
The bank is continuing its physical footprint expansion to target CASA-rich clusters, adding 9 new branches in the current quarter. (2 steady, 1 accelerating across 3 signals)
“added nearly 140 new branches since January '23 in CASA rich clusters including 9 in Quarter 1 of FY '25.”
Capital adequacy remains strong and stable at 13.3%, significantly improved from the stress period of FY20, providing a solid foundation for future credit growth. (2 steady across 2 signals)
“CET I 13.3% Q1FY25”
Physical distribution expansion is steady, with 134 new branches opened since January 2023 to support deposit mobilization. (1 steady, 1 accelerating across 2 signals)
“Premises costs for Q4FY24 up 21.7% Y-o-Y ... largely led by 134 new branches opened since Jan’23”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Yes Bank
Asset quality is at its best since 2020, with Gross NPA at 1.6% and Net NPA at 0.3%. Slippage ratios also improved to 2.1%. (3 easing, 1 intensifying, 1 stable)
“Overdue book of 31-90 days at INR 3,656 Crs down from INR 3,802 Crs in Q2FY26”
The bank has now made 100% provision on outstanding Security Receipts (SRs), meaning the net carrying value is now NIL, removing the balance sheet risk. (2 resolved, 2 stable, 1 easing)
“~INR 43,000 Crs of NPLs sold to ARC”
The risk remains high but is transitioning into a phase of strategic partnership. While the legacy PSL drag persists, the entry of SMBC as a 20% shareholder (becoming the largest) is intended to drive a 'next phase of growth and profitability' which may eventually offset these costs through better global expertise and capital access. (1 stable)
“The transaction is a significant milestone to drive YES Bank’s next phase of growth, profitability and value creation, leveraging SMBC’s global expertise in this phase”
The Cost to Income ratio improved significantly to 67.1% from 74.3% a year ago, though it remains high compared to top-tier peers. (2 easing, 1 stable)
“Cost to Income Ratio at 67.1% v/s 74.3% in Q1FY25 and 67.3% in Q4FY25”
NIM is showing a slight upward trend, increasing 10bps year-on-year to 2.5%, supported by a 200bps improvement in the CASA ratio to 32.8%. (2 easing)
“NIM flat Q-o-Q at 2.5% and up 10bps Y-o-Y... Improvement in CASA Ratio (up 200 bps Y-o-Y) to 32.8%”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Yes Bank
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