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Vodafone Idea
Our verdict on Vodafone Idea isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
The company expanded its portfolio by adding personal loans to its Easy+ offering for enterprise customers. (1 met across 1 tracked commitment)
“Our Easy+ offering designed specifically to cater to the needs of enterprise post-paid customers, we expanded the portfolio with the addition of personal loans to its offering.”
Management confirmed that 5G services have been expanded to all 17 circles where they hold spectrum, covering 29 cities as of the reporting date. (4 met across 4 tracked commitments)
“Further expansion to additional key cities across all our 17 priority circles is planned by September 2025.”
See the full cited Management analysis of Vodafone Idea
How durable is the business?
Revenue grew to Rs. 110.2 billion, a 4.9% increase year-over-year, driven by 4G subscriber additions and tariff improvements. (5 expanding)
“We also saw a healthy expansion in our Customer ARPU from Rs. 175 in Q4FY25 to Rs. 190 in Q4FY26, a growth of 8.3% YoY. The Customer ARPU has now been increasing for 19 consecutive quarters.”
Data traffic grew 10.4% YoY, supported by a 36% expansion in 4G data capacity and the initial rollout of 5G services in 22 cities. (5 expanding)
“Our data usage in Q4FY26 has also increased YoY by over 30% to 83.0 Petabyte/day... The average data usage by a 4G/5G subscriber improved 27.2% YoY to 20.2 GB in Q4FY26.”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Vodafone Idea
Where does growth come from?
Network rollout is accelerating significantly; Q3 FY25 capex (Rs. 32.1 billion) exceeded the first two quarters combined, with plans to reach 1.1 billion population coverage by March 2025. (5 accelerating across 5 signals, 1 leading indicator)
“So, on the debt raise, we've maintained our capex for the over the next three years for Rs. 45,000 Crores... we are very confident that our capex intensity... is only going to intensify towards the Rs. 45,000 Crores capex target.”
ARPU is showing strong acceleration following the July 2024 tariff hike, with Customer ARPU (excluding M2M) increasing 13% compared to Q1 FY25. (4 accelerating, 1 steady across 5 signals)
“We also saw a healthy expansion in our Customer ARPU from Rs. 175 in Q4FY25 to Rs. 190 in Q4FY26, a growth of 8.3% YoY.”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Vodafone Idea
What could break the thesis?
The risk is intensifying as the company commits to a massive Rs. 500-550 billion capex plan over the next 3 years to expand 4G and launch 5G in key cities to remain competitive. (1 intensifying, 1 easing, 3 stable, 1 high-severity)
“We are looking at a funded facility of Rs. 25,000 Crores and a non-funded facility of Rs. 10,000 Crores. We are deeply engaged... with an SBI-led consortium.”
The risk remains high as banks are seeking clarity on AGR dues before committing to new funding. Total debt for spectrum and AGR stands at INR 195,000 crores. (2 stable, 1 intensifying, 2 easing, 1 high-severity)
“Our AGR dues have been finalised at Rs 64,046 Crore as of December 31, 2025... The balance AGR dues have to be paid in 6 equal annual installments of Rs. 10,608 Crore from March’36 to March’41.”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Vodafone Idea
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