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Adani Ports
Our verdict on Adani Ports isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
The acquisition is progressing smoothly and is currently awaiting final approval from the Australian Government Department. (1 in progress, 1 met across 2 tracked commitments)
“Mundra, is well placed to cross 200 MMT mark in FY25”
The project is on track to start operations in Q4 FY25 (next year quarter 4). Equipment installation is currently underway. (2 in progress, 2 met across 4 tracked commitments)
“Colombo terminal received financing commitment of USD 553 Mn from DFC and is targeting commissioning before end of current FY”
Management reported 20% EBITDA growth and explicitly stated they surpassed the FY25 guidance. Analysts noted the EBITDA number came in higher than the revised guidance. (1 exceeded, 1 revised, 3 in progress across 5 tracked commitments)
“we expect that to be somewhere in the region of 75% to 77% whenever we are able to get our operating efficiencies up and pricing continuing this way.”
The port has achieved a world-class Gross Crane Rate (GCR) of 30 lifts per hour within 8 months of operation, supporting the volume ramp-up. (1 in progress across 1 tracked commitment)
“very recently, Vizhinjam has achieved the world-class GCR, which is a Gross Crane Rate at 30 container lifts per hour, which is a benchmark just after 8 months of operation.”
The company remains on track for its 2040 target, with plans to add 1,000 MW of new renewable capacity currently in progress. (1 in progress across 1 tracked commitment)
“APSEZ is targeting Net Zero by 2040.”
See the full cited Management analysis of Adani Ports
How durable is the business?
International operations are expanding with the commencement of Vizhinjam and Colombo ports and the approved acquisition of NQXT in Australia, leading to a new separate reporting line for international ports. (3 expanding)
“We closed Gopalpur acquisition, commenced operations at Vizhinjam and Colombo ports and our board has approved acquisition of NQXT in Queensland, Australia... we will now report international ports separately.”
Domestic ports revenue grew by 12% with EBITDA margins reaching a record 73%, driven by a record 27% market share and Mundra becoming the first Indian port to cross 200 MMT in a year. (4 expanding across 1 engine)
“Domestic Ports 6,701... EBITDA 4,877”
Domestic market share increased to 27.8% from 27.2%. The company added new terminals in Colombo and Dhamra, and received approval for the NQXT acquisition in Australia. (2 expanding)
“February 3, 2026, Ahmedabad: Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited (APSEZ), India’s largest Integrated Transport Utility, announced its results for the quarter and nine months ended December 31, 2025.”
International revenue grew 22% to ₹973 Cr. Volume jumped 245% to 7.7 MMT following the commencement of Colombo operations and O&M in Tanzania. (3 expanding)
“International ports revenue increased 22% YoY to ₹973 Cr... 8 MMT cargo handled vs. 2 MMT... Commenced operations at Colombo terminal”
The 'shore-to-door' strategy is intensifying with the truck fleet growing to 25,000+ and the launch of double-stack container rakes between ICD Tumb and ICD Patli. (2 expanding)
“Owned & managed fleet of 25,000+ trucks... Last mile connectivity to customer gate... Launched double stack container rake movement”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Adani Ports
Where does growth come from?
International operations have reached a critical milestone, achieving INR 1,000 crores in quarterly revenue, signaling a shift toward becoming a major global player. (1 new trend across 1 signal, 1 leading indicator)
“Announced partnership with Motherson Group to establish a dedicated facility for auto exports at the Dighi Port. The new RoRo (Roll On and Roll Off) terminal will handle 200,000 cars per year for exporters in the Mumbai-Pune auto belt”
Adani Ports continues to dominate the Indian container market, capturing nearly half of all container traffic in the country. (+1 more signal)
“Q3 FY26 all-India container market share at 45.8%.”
Management has set a new EBITDA guidance for FY25 at Rs. 17,000-18,000 Cr, following a record FY24 EBITDA of Rs. 15,751 Cr (a 44% YoY jump). This represents a continued upward trajectory in profitability expectations. (5 accelerating across 5 signals)
“APSEZ Q3 FY26 EBITDA up 20% YoY to ₹5,786 Cr, increases FY26 EBITDA guidance by ₹800 Cr... Revised guidance 22,800 Cr”
Adani Ports is entering the green energy logistics space by partnering with BPCL to provide LNG bunkering (refueling) services at Vizhinjam port.
“Obviously, this includes the potential to develop the liquid terminal; to start with we have already signed the MOU with BPCL for LNG bunkering. This will be ship-to-ship bunkering”
Adani Ports has successfully entered the Australian market by completing the acquisition of a major export terminal, providing a steady source of international cash flow.
“APSEZ completed the acquisition of NQXT Australia. With a capacity of 50 MTPA, NQXT is a cash generating asset that consolidates APSEZ’s international presence along the East-West trade corridor”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Adani Ports
What could break the thesis?
The risk is intensifying as the business mix shifts toward lower-margin segments; overall EBITDA margin dropped from 64% to 60% due to higher contributions from Logistics and Marine. (1 intensifying)
“Is it fair to assume part of the realization improvement that you've seen in the quarter is also to do with the rupee depreciation? The answer is yes”
The company's 'GPWIS' (wagon investment) volumes have declined, indicating a potential slowdown or efficiency issue in specific rail-based cargo movements. [DEMAND]
“GPWIS (MMT) Q3 FY26 5.2... Q3 FY25 5.5... YoY -6%”
The risk is easing as management has established a pathway for portfolio returns, similar to their successful turnaround of other acquired ports. (1 easing, 1 stable)
“like any other half a dozen port that we have done, in times to come, this will also get to we have a pathway and visibility on how we will get to the, you know, sort of our portfolio return.”
This risk is easing through a structural shift. While imported (EXIM) coal is down, the company is successfully replacing those volumes with coastal coal (domestic movement), increasing market share from 27.8% to 31.1%. (1 easing)
“When we look at coastal coal, which is replacing based on Make in India or use in India, which is replacing the EXIM coal, our market share has gone up from 27.8% to 31.1%.”
The risk is stable as thermal coal continues to decline (down 9.4% at India level), but the company is successfully offsetting this with container growth. (1 stable)
“Thermal coal went down by 9.4%... if something is getting cut down on the coal, we get the benefit on the container. Right? ... we are building up container facility container capacities in Mundra.”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Adani Ports
Read the full thesis on Adani Ports
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