AI-generated · cited to primary sources · not investment advice
Bajaj Auto (532977) Jun 2025 Filing Analysis
Does management do what it says?
Export volumes grew by 24% in Q2 FY26, surpassing the guided range of 15-20%. (1 exceeded, 1 met across 2 tracked commitments)
“we expect overall exports to continue to grow at 15% to 20% every quarter year on year.”
The company successfully expanded the Chetak 35 series during the quarter, which includes the affordable variant that completes the transition to the new platform. (1 met, 1 exceeded across 2 tracked commitments)
“as well as the impending introduction of a new variant in June as an upgrade to the entry level and large selling 2903”
With the transition to the new platform, management confirmed that a couple of models in the Chetak portfolio have already moved to being EBITDA positive. (2 met, 1 exceeded across 3 tracked commitments)
“I'd say we are now very close to line of sight on being EBITDA breakeven, yes.”
Management confirmed they exited the quarter in December back in the number 1 position in the segment. (1 met across 1 tracked commitment)
“our aim is to come as close as possible to the number 1 position in FY '26.”
See the full cited Management analysis of Bajaj Auto
How durable is the business?
The EV portfolio has expanded significantly, now contributing nearly 20% of domestic revenue compared to under 10% in the previous year. (3 expanding)
“the electric vehicle portfolio has moved from being under 10% of our domestic revenue to nearly 20% on a full year basis in the course of this current year.”
The ICE segment remains the core profit engine, with the 125cc+ motorcycle segment growing 12% and ICE three-wheelers maintaining a dominant 75% market share. (4 expanding)
“FY '25 has again set new benchmarks with revenue hitting the peak of INR50,000 crores, for the first time... Industry growth was driven by the 125cc+ segment, which grew by 12%.”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Bajaj Auto
What could break the thesis?
Demand remains under pressure in larger towns due to rental inflation and reduced purchasing power, leading to a 2% decline in industry registrations in Q4. (2 stable, 1 intensifying)
“The larger towns, that kind of a segment is slowing down, perhaps under the pressure of the inflation... driven particularly by things like rental inflation. And we have seen some pressure on purchasing power.”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Bajaj Auto
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