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Adani Power
Our verdict on Adani Power isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
The company successfully issued AA rated NCDs and maintained a robust capital structure with a Net Debt to Continuing EBITDA ratio of 2.12x. While the exact weighted average cost is not explicitly stated as a single percentage for the full year, the successful issuance of AA rated debt on January 27, 2026, supports the maintenance of competitive borrowing costs. (2 met across 2 tracked commitments)
“Weighted average cost will be less than 9% this year.”
The commitment is confirmed as the company has received the Letter of Award for the 3,200 MW long-term PPA from Assam DISCOM for the Chapar project. (1 met across 1 tracked commitment)
“(1) APL has received Letter of Award for a 3,200 MW long term PPA from Assam DISCOM”
See the full cited Management analysis of Adani Power
How durable is the business?
While primarily India-focused, the company has signaled a geographic shift by incorporating a project in Bhutan, marking its first major move beyond Indian territory. (1 expanding)
“We are expanding our area of focus beyond the Indian territory... We have recently incorporated an SPV in Bhutan setting up a 570-megawatt hydro power plant.”
The company is aggressively expanding its scale, having acquired Vidarbha Industries Power (600 MW) and progressing on 4,800 MW of capacity expansion out of a 12,520 MW target by 2030. (5 expanding)
“Power Demand in key States (BU)* ... Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Adani Power
Where does growth come from?
The growth signal is accelerating as the government has raised the national thermal capacity target from 80 GW to 95 GW, and Adani Power has already locked in critical equipment (boilers, turbines) for 11.2 GW of its expansion. (3 accelerating, 2 steady across 5 signals, 1 leading indicator)
“We are making excellent progress towards our goal of adding 23.7 gigawatts of thermal capacity by 2032.”
The company is actively executing 4,800 MW of its 12,520 MW target for 2030, with specific projects like Mahan Phase-II reaching 66% completion. This indicates a steady progression toward the long-term goal. (1 steady across 1 signal, 1 leading indicator)
“Operating Capacity 18,150 MW + Locked-in Capacity 23,720 MW = Target Capacity 41,870 MW”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Adani Power
What could break the thesis?
Debt levels are intensifying as the company utilizes bridge financing for its massive 11.2 GW expansion and recent acquisitions. Total debt rose to INR 44,372 crores as of June 30, 2025, from INR 38,775 crores in March 2025. (5 intensifying, 2 high-severity)
“Net Debt INR Cr 45,022 [as of 31st March 2026] ... 31,024 [as of 31st Mar 2025]”
Merchant realizations have dropped to Rs. 6.51 per kWh from Rs. 7.60 in the same quarter last year, driven by lower imported coal prices and weather-induced demand sluggishness. (5 intensifying)
“Merchant Realisation ₹/ kWh ... 5.93 [FY25] ... 5.3 [FY26]”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Adani Power
Read the full thesis on Adani Power
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