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Coal India
Our verdict on Coal India isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
Management stated they are on track to supply more than the 610 million ton requirement for the power sector in FY24. (1 exceeded, 1 met across 2 tracked commitments)
“In power plant, we are supposed to give 610 million. We are quite sure that we will be committing and we will be fulfilling 610 million.”
E-auction volumes reached 17% in the first half of February 2024, aligning with the 15% target for the second half of the year. (2 met, 1 exceeded across 3 tracked commitments)
“15% of production, you can say, roughly.”
See the full cited Management analysis of Coal India
How durable is the business?
The company's scale moat is expanding with a long-term vision to reach 1.22 Billion Tonnes of production by FY 34-35, supported by a 54.90 BT balance of extractable resources. (1 expanding)
“COAL PRODUCTION 1 BT – VISION 2035... 1.22 BT Coal Production by 2034-35”
The company continues to expand its production scale, achieving a 2% growth in total coal production and offtake, reinforcing its dominant market position. (3 expanding, 1 contracting, 1 stable)
“Revenue from Operations (₹ Crore) Q3 25-26 34,924”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Coal India
Where does growth come from?
The company is accelerating its 'Net Zero' transition with a target of 3,000 MW of solar power. While 250 MW is expected by year-end, a massive 900 MW pipeline is already agreed upon at specific tariffs. (5 accelerating across 5 signals, 1 leading indicator)
“MoU on 05.05.2025 with UPRVUNL for setting 500 MW Solar Power project in Uttar Pradesh as a part of Green and Renewable Energy Initiatives.”
Coal India is accelerating its diversification into thermal power with two major projects approved by the Union Cabinet in January 2024: a 1x660 MW plant in MP and a 2x800 MW plant in Odisha. (2 accelerating, 3 new trend across 5 signals, 1 leading indicator)
“50:50 JV agreement with DVC to develop a brownfield thermal power project at Chandrapura, Jharkhand. Capacity: 1,600 MW of supercritical unit (2×800 MW units).”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Coal India
What could break the thesis?
E-Auction realizations remain a major drag. For 9M 24-25, the price per tonne fell 24% (from ₹3,303 to ₹2,514). In Q3 alone, the price dropped 20% YoY, significantly impacting margins. (3 intensifying, 1 stable, 1 high-severity)
“E-Auction Price (In Rs./Te.) 9M 25-26 2,356.67, 9M 24-25 2,513.85, Inc/Dec -157.18”
Profitability continues to decline. Profit After Tax (PAT) for 9M 24-25 fell 11% to ₹25,710 Cr from ₹28,839 Cr. The quarterly (Q3) drop was even steeper at 17% YoY. (5 intensifying, 2 high-severity)
“Profit After Tax (₹ Crore) 9M 25-26 20,163, 9M 24-25 25,710, 22% [down arrow]”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Coal India
Read the full thesis on Coal India
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