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Inox Wind
Our verdict on Inox Wind isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
The company has already reached an O&M portfolio of ~12.5 GW following the acquisition of 6.5 GW of wind O&M assets, surpassing the 10 GW target ahead of the 2-year timeline. (1 exceeded across 1 tracked commitment)
“Inox Green completes investments to acquire 6.5 GW of wind O&M assets taking its O&M portfolio to ~12.5 GW”
The demerger process is in its final stages of hearing at the NCLT Ahmedabad, indicating progress toward the 2-3 quarter timeline set in September 2025. (1 in progress, 1 exceeded, 1 revised across 3 tracked commitments)
“IGESL targets a portfolio of 10 GW in the next 2 years through a mix of organic and inorganic growth”
See the full cited Management analysis of Inox Wind
How durable is the business?
The O&M service arm expanded its portfolio to 5.1 GW and successfully entered the solar O&M segment, diversifying its revenue base. (2 expanding)
“Today, a lot more states are firing and next year again, I see Rajasthan opening a big way, Andhra Pradesh opening big way, a lot in MP, a lot of projects coming up”
The Operations and Maintenance (O&M) segment is expanding its portfolio, recently signing a 182 MW agreement with a major conglomerate, and targeting a 10 GW portfolio within two years. (5 expanding across 2 engines)
“On consolidated basis, Inox Wind has reported revenue of INR 1,238 crores, an increase of 24% Y-o-Y. EBITDA of INR 313 crores”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Inox Wind
Where does growth come from?
Management is shifting guidance from megawatt execution to financial revenue to better reflect the complexity of their 50-50 mix between turnkey and equipment supply projects. (1 new trend across 1 signal, 2 leading indicators)
“This also includes the investments which we have made to acquire 6.5 gigawatt of operational wind O&M assets of two major companies... consolidation of financials into Inox Green will result in a multi-fold increase in consolidated EBITDA and PAT for FY '27 over FY '26.”
New trend identified with the imminent commencement of a new nacelle and hub manufacturing plant in Gujarat to support the 2 GW annual execution target. (4 new trend, 1 steady across 5 signals, 1 leading indicator)
“Establishing new blade and tower manufacturing unit in Karnataka”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Inox Wind
What could break the thesis?
The risk remains high as the company has formalized an aggressive +75% revenue growth target for FY27, requiring a massive jump from FY26 guidance. (2 intensifying, 3 stable, 2 high-severity)
“FY27 REVENUE + 75% growth YoY”
EASING. The company achieved 'net cash' status following a merger and equity raises, reducing liabilities by ~Rs 2,050 cr. Net cash as of March 2025 stands at Rs 170 cr, significantly improving the balance sheet health compared to previous debt concerns. (5 easing, 1 high-severity)
“So broadly in the range of 200-210 days... In the earlier call, I think you had mentioned 120 days. So why this shift?”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Inox Wind
Read the full thesis on Inox Wind
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