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Adani Green
Our verdict on Adani Green isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
The company confirms the availability of the USD 3.4 billion revolving construction facility to ensure fully funded growth. (4 met, 1 exceeded across 5 tracked commitments)
“So from that aspect for another two years, three years, because of the kind of capex that we are continuing to do, we will be in the range between 4 times to 5 times of net debt to run rate EBITDA and continue to be there around that.”
Management reported adding 5.6 GW of greenfield capacity in calendar year 2025, which exceeds the annual target of 5 GW. (1 exceeded, 1 revised, 3 in progress across 5 tracked commitments)
“I think we are committed to the 5 gigawatt. And I think we would like to first achieve that before saying anything else on the future capacity... we have been on track to achieve 5 gigawatt more, 5 gigawatt in this year.”
The 500 MW Chitravathi PSP project is 57% complete in terms of physical progress and is expected to be commissioned in the coming calendar year (2026), ahead of the 2027 target. (1 in progress across 1 tracked commitment)
“Targeted addition of 5 GW+ Hydro PSP capacity by 2030”
Management reaffirmed the 50 GW target by 2030 and reported that current capacity has expanded to 16.7 GW, a 49% year-on-year increase. (1 in progress across 1 tracked commitment)
“With a comprehensive capital management framework, we ensure that our growth is fully funded for our 50-gigawatt target by 2030 while upholding strict credit discipline.”
Management acknowledged that grid availability and curtailment issues have negatively impacted generation and revenue realization in the recent quarter, contrary to the improvement target. (1 revised across 1 tracked commitment)
“Coupled with it, the curtailment impact, which we just shared across, to an extent has also not helped the cause in overall per se... there has been a dip as far as the revenue realization is concerned.”
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How durable is the business?
The company is leveraging its scale to enter new high-growth B2B segments, specifically targeting data centers which are expected to make up a portion of the 25% non-PPA capacity by FY30. (1 expanding)
“we are saying that 25% of the capacity will be available in the merchant exposure, C&I, CFDs, or mixed hybrid contracts... there is a keen interest from the -- some of these data centers.”
The Khavda project moat is expanding with 4 GW now operational and a clear path to 30 GW by 2029, leveraging massive infrastructure for labor and logistics that competitors lack. (5 expanding)
“you will appreciate the fact that paramount importance for us is to go at a scale and build projects at a scale, which has the least cost from all parameters which gives us the flexibility as well as the advantage of extracting maximum returns from those assets.”
Solar generation efficiency at the flagship Khavda site reached a record Capacity Utilization Factor (CUF) of 32.4% in Q4, driven by advanced bifacial N-type modules and robotic cleaning. (1 expanding)
“the solar CUF was more than 32%. This all has been made possible because of the advancement in technology which we are deploying there, whether it's bifacial N-type modules, it's single-axis trackers, our robotic cleaning systems”
Adani Green added a record 3.3 GW of capacity in FY25, representing 16% of India's total utility-scale solar installations for the year. (5 expanding)
“AGEL: Leading India’s Energy Transition... India’s largest Renewable Energy Portfolio... 17.2 GW -> 50 GW... Revenue Rs. 8,508 Cr (9MFY26) up 25% YoY... EBITDA Margin 91.5%”
The cost advantage moat is expanding through the Khavda project, which has reached 4.1 GW operational status and is on track for 30 GW by 2029, leveraging massive scale efficiencies. (2 expanding)
“Significant Scale Efficiencies: All projects to be developed on contiguous land in Khavda Renewable Park; Significant scale efficiencies in construction & O&M”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Adani Green
Where does growth come from?
Execution at the Khavda site is accelerating with 4 GW already operational and a clear roadmap to reach 30 GW by 2029. (5 accelerating across 5 signals, 3 leading indicators)
“7.7 GW Operational >> 30 GW by 2029”
The company is accelerating its capacity addition pace, targeting 5 GW in the current financial year compared to 3.3 GW added in FY25. (3 accelerating, 1 steady across 4 signals, 2 leading indicators)
“Operational (as on Dec-25) 17.2 GW >> FY30E 50 GW”
The company is developing a hydro pumped storage project, which acts like a giant natural battery to provide steady power.
“Our hydro pumped storage project on Chitravathi River in Andhra Pradesh is also on track.”
Revenue growth remains steady and strong, supported by a 23% increase in revenue from power supply for the full fiscal year. (3 steady, 1 accelerating across 4 signals)
“Revenue1 ₹8,508 Cr ▲25% YoY”
Energy sales volume is accelerating faster than revenue (42% vs 31%), driven by the record addition of 4.9 GW of capacity in the preceding 12 months. (5 accelerating across 5 signals)
“Our energy sales surged by an impressive 37% year-on-year, reaching 27.6 billion units. This robust growth is a direct result of significant greenfield capacity additions and strong plant performance.”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Adani Green
What could break the thesis?
The company demonstrated strong execution by adding 1.6 GW in Q1 FY26, reaching 15.8 GW operational. They remain on track for their 5 GW annual target and have 16 GW currently under execution. (2 easing, 3 stable, 1 high-severity)
“Yes, grid availability has been impacting us, not because of any other reasons, but because the schedules are not being met and there have been delays in the grid augmentation, which is happening. We were expecting in the last quarter, some 2 to 3 gigawatts of augmentation, which has not taken place.”
Gross debt has increased to INR 78,000 crores from the previously noted ₹76,000 crore range, while borrowing costs remain high at 9.1% to 9.2%. Management explicitly stated gross debt will not come down in the near term. (3 intensifying, 2 easing, 2 high-severity)
“₹76,071 Cr Net Debt - Sep 2025”
Execution risk remains high but stable as the company added 5.6 GW in the last calendar year and is maintaining a massive capex guidance of ₹35,000-40,000 crore for the next year. (1 stable, 1 high-severity)
“Operational (as on Dec-25) 17.2 GW -> FY30E 50 GW”
The risk is intensifying as average realizations for Solar have dropped from 4.90 Rs/kwh in FY20 to 4.16 Rs/kwh in FY24, and Wind from 3.67 to 3.27 Rs/kwh. (3 intensifying, 2 stable)
“During the current quarter, our solar merchant realization was INR2.20 per unit. And for the last quarter, it was -- for Q3 '25, it was INR2.82 per megawatt per unit.”
The risk is intensifying as the projected contract mix for FY30E shows merchant and hybrid exposure increasing to 25%, up from 14% in FY25A. (2 intensifying, 1 stable)
“the government has announced that there is -- they're looking to cancel this 40 gigawatt of solar PPA.”
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