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Adani Green
Our verdict on Adani Green isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
The company confirms the availability of the USD 3.4 billion revolving construction facility to ensure fully funded growth. (4 met, 1 exceeded across 5 tracked commitments)
“So from that aspect for another two years, three years, because of the kind of capex that we are continuing to do, we will be in the range between 4 times to 5 times of net debt to run rate EBITDA and continue to be there around that.”
Management reported adding 5.6 GW of greenfield capacity in calendar year 2025, which exceeds the annual target of 5 GW. (1 exceeded, 1 revised, 3 in progress across 5 tracked commitments)
“I think we are committed to the 5 gigawatt. And I think we would like to first achieve that before saying anything else on the future capacity... we have been on track to achieve 5 gigawatt more, 5 gigawatt in this year.”
See the full cited Management analysis of Adani Green
How durable is the business?
The company is leveraging its scale to enter new high-growth B2B segments, specifically targeting data centers which are expected to make up a portion of the 25% non-PPA capacity by FY30. (1 expanding)
“we are saying that 25% of the capacity will be available in the merchant exposure, C&I, CFDs, or mixed hybrid contracts... there is a keen interest from the -- some of these data centers.”
The Khavda project moat is expanding with 4 GW now operational and a clear path to 30 GW by 2029, leveraging massive infrastructure for labor and logistics that competitors lack. (5 expanding)
“you will appreciate the fact that paramount importance for us is to go at a scale and build projects at a scale, which has the least cost from all parameters which gives us the flexibility as well as the advantage of extracting maximum returns from those assets.”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Adani Green
Where does growth come from?
Execution at the Khavda site is accelerating with 4 GW already operational and a clear roadmap to reach 30 GW by 2029. (5 accelerating across 5 signals, 3 leading indicators)
“7.7 GW Operational >> 30 GW by 2029”
The company is accelerating its capacity addition pace, targeting 5 GW in the current financial year compared to 3.3 GW added in FY25. (3 accelerating, 1 steady across 4 signals, 2 leading indicators)
“Operational (as on Dec-25) 17.2 GW >> FY30E 50 GW”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Adani Green
What could break the thesis?
The company demonstrated strong execution by adding 1.6 GW in Q1 FY26, reaching 15.8 GW operational. They remain on track for their 5 GW annual target and have 16 GW currently under execution. (2 easing, 3 stable, 1 high-severity)
“Yes, grid availability has been impacting us, not because of any other reasons, but because the schedules are not being met and there have been delays in the grid augmentation, which is happening. We were expecting in the last quarter, some 2 to 3 gigawatts of augmentation, which has not taken place.”
Gross debt has increased to INR 78,000 crores from the previously noted ₹76,000 crore range, while borrowing costs remain high at 9.1% to 9.2%. Management explicitly stated gross debt will not come down in the near term. (3 intensifying, 2 easing, 2 high-severity)
“₹76,071 Cr Net Debt - Sep 2025”
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