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Angel One
Our verdict on Angel One isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
The company achieved a consolidated EBDAT margin of 41.7% in Q4 '26, which falls within the guided range of 40-45%. (2 met across 2 tracked commitments)
“Since you asked for the quantitative thought on that, we expect that on a yearly basis, at current run rate, it should have about ₹ 50 to ₹ 60 crores upside on a net basis to us.”
Management reaffirmed that when apportioned over a 5-year period, the cost of acquisition remains within the guided 10-13% band of total net income. (1 met across 1 tracked commitment)
“If apportioned over 5-year period, then the cost of acquisition will be in the band of 10-13% of total net income”
See the full cited Management analysis of Angel One
How durable is the business?
Interest income is expanding, driven by a record high client funding book (MTF) of ₹48 billion. This segment now contributes 31% of total revenue, providing a stable buffer against brokerage volatility. (3 expanding)
“Our client funding book reached a new high, averaging ₹42 billion in the quarter... period ending client funding book stood at ₹48 billion... 31% from interest income.”
Scale is expanding in terms of total client base, though active client market share on the NSE saw a slight sequential dip. (5 expanding)
“Total Client Base 37.4 Mn... Overall Retail Equity T/o Market Share 20.4%”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Angel One
Where does growth come from?
The credit business is in a high-growth phase, with disbursements more than doubling (123.6%) in the most recent quarter. (5 accelerating across 5 signals, 2 leading indicators)
“Credit: Unlocking Demand through Technology... Angel One's loans disbursed in FY26: 20 Bn... Loans taken by our clients from the market: ~1,000 Bn... 50x Potential”
Ionic Wealth is showing rapid growth momentum, with AUM increasing by 33.6% in a single quarter, reaching Rs. 50.6 Bn. (5 accelerating across 5 signals)
“Ionic Wealth: Foundation to Flywheel... ₹ 100.8+ Bn (+22.7% QoQ) Assets Under Management”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Angel One
What could break the thesis?
The company is heavily dependent on Futures and Options (F&O) trading, which accounts for a massive portion of its income. New government rules (SEBI regulations) aimed at curbing retail trading in these risky products could significantly lower trading volumes and revenue. [REGULATORY]
“Within broking, we witnessed strong momentum in the commodities segment... Similarly, F&O revenues increased by 16.1% quarter-on-quarter... share of broking revenues increasing to 60.7% of total gross income”
STABLE. Management acknowledges this is the first full quarter after the 2024 index derivative regulations. While they expect near-term fluctuations, they believe the ecosystem is now more robust and are guiding for a return to normal operating margins by Q4. (1 stable, 2 easing, 1 intensifying, 1 high-severity)
“Changes like True to Label, F&O regulations and softer macro impacted revenues in FY26”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Angel One
Read the full thesis on Angel One
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