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Gland Pharma
Our verdict on Gland Pharma isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
For the 9 months ended FY26, adjusted EBITDA increased by 26%, and the Q3 FY26 consolidated EBITDA margin stood at 26%, tracking ahead of the full-year guidance range. (3 exceeded, 2 met across 5 tracked commitments)
“We're targeting around 35%, now it's 37%.”
R&D expenses for Q3 FY26 were 5.4% of revenue, and for the 9M FY26 period, they stood at 5.2% (INR 1,725 million out of INR 32,965 million base revenue), aligning with the ~5% guidance. (3 met across 3 tracked commitments)
“Yes, roughly, we always say around 5% on an annual basis, it should be around that.”
See the full cited Management analysis of Gland Pharma
How durable is the business?
Cenexi has achieved a significant financial turnaround, reaching EBITDA breakeven after several quarters of losses, driven by price increases and improved operational efficiency at the Fontenay and Herouville sites. (5 expanding across 1 engine)
“Base Business (Gland) P&L Highlights... Revenue from operations 12,648... EBITDA margin(%)(3) 40%”
Other regulated markets (Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand) showed robust growth of 34% YoY, increasing their total revenue share to 27%. (5 expanding)
“Europe Contribution to the Group FY26 22%”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Gland Pharma
Where does growth come from?
The expansion of pen and cartridge capacity is accelerating, with the current 40 million unit line already approved and a massive 100 million unit addition reaching the Factory Acceptance Test (FAT) stage by September 2025. (5 accelerating across 5 signals, 5 leading indicators)
“GLP-1s and Insulin analogs: In FY26, the company launched Liraglutide in the US. Our Pen/cartridge capacity now stands at 140 million units per annum.”
Cenexi's turnaround is accelerating, moving from several quarters of losses to EBITDA breakeven, supported by the commercial start of the new Fontenay Line G. (3 accelerating, 2 new trend across 5 signals, 3 leading indicators)
“The next four years, we're looking at a CAGR of 15% at a consol basis.”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Gland Pharma
What could break the thesis?
The risk is stable but showing slight improvement as US revenue contribution dropped to 49% this quarter from over 50% previously, while other regulated markets grew 34%. (1 stable, 1 easing, 1 high-severity)
“Starting with the United States, which continues to remain our largest market... for the full year, revenue stood at INR33,181 million with a growth of 11%.”
The risk is easing as the company confirmed that Liraglutide has now been launched in Saudi Arabia, indicating a resumption of business activity. (5 easing, 1 high-severity)
“US Contribution to the Group FY26 53%”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Gland Pharma
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