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MTAR Technologie
Our verdict on MTAR Technologie isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
The order book has significantly expanded from the September 2025 level of Rs. 1,296.6 Crs to Rs. 2,394.9 Crs as of 31st December 2025, driven by major new orders worth Rs. 1,368.8 Crs received during Q3 FY26. (1 exceeded, 1 met, 3 in progress across 5 tracked commitments)
“The much anticipated fleet reactive orders are expected to be received in the coming weeks, totalling to approximately around INR500 crores for Kaiga 5 and 6”
The order book reached INR 2,394.90 crores by the end of Q3. Management expects INR 700-800 crores of inflows in Q4 to reach the INR 2,800 crore target. (1 in progress across 1 tracked commitment)
“expecting a closing order book of close to INR2,800 crores by end of the year”
See the full cited Management analysis of MTAR Technologie
How durable is the business?
The company is shifting from prototype development ('first articles') to volume production and has entered a major 50:50 JV partnership with Adani for the AMCA fifth-generation fighter program. (2 expanding)
“when it comes to AMCA, we just participated in the expression of interest along with Adani as a non-lead partner... Adani will be the lead partner with 50% equity stake and we will be the non-lead partner with 50% equity stake.”
The company is strengthening its moat by becoming a 100% import substitute for roller screws and receiving NADCAP certification, which qualifies them as a one-stop shop for global MNCs. (2 expanding)
“Roller screws, we are already qualified... we are going to be a 100% import substitute for the Government of India for this sector.”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of MTAR Technologie
Where does growth come from?
Nuclear sector traction is accelerating as the company transitions from small refurbishment quotes to bidding for large-scale 700MW reactor packages (Kaiga 5 & 6). (2 accelerating, 1 new trend across 3 signals)
“Furthermore, the government is likely to announce a dedicated production-linked incentives, PLI scheme valued at INR18,000 crores to INR20,000 crores for manufacturing of critical nuclear components in the upcoming union budget.”
The Aerospace & Defence segment is showing an accelerating trend in its contribution to total revenue, rising from 7% in FY24 to 16% in Q1 FY26. (1 accelerating, 1 new trend across 2 signals, 1 leading indicator)
“Commenced batch production of new products for GKN Aerospace, Rafael, Elbit, and Thales, among others that shall be major drivers of revenues in Aerospace from FY 26”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of MTAR Technologie
What could break the thesis?
Working capital days have increased to 267 days from 229 days in the previous quarter, primarily due to delayed receivables from customers in conflict-affected regions (Israel). (4 intensifying, 1 easing, 2 high-severity)
“Total Working Capital Days 266... Receivables 134 [in Q3FY26] 87 [in Q2FY26]”
Risk is intensifying due to external factors; management noted a 'pause' in shipments due to US tariff announcements on April 2nd, though they claim to have factored this into future guidance. (2 intensifying, 3 stable, 1 high-severity)
“Geographical Break-up Q3FY26: Export 84%, Domestic 16%”
See the full cited Risk analysis of MTAR Technologie
Read the full thesis on MTAR Technologie
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