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Jet Freight
Our verdict on Jet Freight isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
The commitment was made for a 3-5 year horizon starting from late 2024/early 2025. In FY25, Air Freight volumes saw a slight decline from 24,834 Tons to 23,157 Tons, while Ocean Freight also dipped. The long-term target remains active in the 'Way Forward' section. (1 not yet due across 1 tracked commitment)
“Volume CAGR @10% to 15% ... Growth over Next 3 to 5 Years”
Management continues to emphasize the transition from 2PL to 4PL and scaling up Ocean Freight operations as a core part of their 'Way Forward' strategy. While specific volume growth in Ocean Freight for FY25 was not explicitly detailed as a success metric compared to the prior year, it remains a primary strategic pillar. (2 in progress across 2 tracked commitments)
“Earnings CAGR @ 40% ... Growth over Next 3 to 5 Years”
See the full cited Management analysis of Jet Freight
How durable is the business?
Air Freight volumes have expanded significantly, reaching 24,834 tons in FY24 from 21,160 tons in FY23. In the most recent half-year (H1FY25), revenue grew 13.6% YoY, and EBITDA margins improved to 3.0% from a negative (0.4%) in the prior year period. (5 expanding)
“Revenue from Operations H1FY25 2,291.5 H1FY24 2,017.9 YoY% 13.6”
The company is strengthening its network moat by diversifying into warehousing and customs brokerage to become a 'fully integrated logistics partner,' moving beyond simple freight forwarding. (1 expanding)
“Additionally, our customs brokerage, warehousing, and value-added services continued to strengthen client relationships and support our goal of becoming a fully integrated logistics partner.”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Jet Freight
Where does growth come from?
The company has set an aggressive forward-looking target for earnings growth. Current H1FY25 results show a massive 100% YoY jump in EBITDA, suggesting the 40% CAGR target is currently being outperformed as the company scales. (5 accelerating across 5 signals, 2 leading indicators)
“Growth over Next 3 to 5 Years... Earnings CAGR 40%”
Jet Freight is shifting from a pure freight forwarder to a 'virtual airline' operator by signing a multi-aircraft deal for Airbus A330 P2F widebody cargo planes, which will drastically increase their per-flight capacity to 60-62 tonnes. (1 new trend across 1 signal, 1 leading indicator)
““Advancing from 2PL to 4PL for Seamless Supply Chain Integration””
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Jet Freight
What could break the thesis?
INSUFFICIENT_DATA. The current December 2024 presentation focuses on general business overview and financial highlights, with no specific update on the Airbus A330 P2F deal or the status of the airline partner. (1 insufficient_data, 2 intensifying, 1 high-severity)
“JFLL Becomes Launch Customer for A330 P2F Aircraft — Multi-Aircraft Deal Signed... Aircraft will be operated through a partner airline model, with flight operations outsourced to the aforementioned airline company.”
The risk is INTENSIFYING. Ocean freight volumes saw a massive decline from 6,803 TEU in FY24 to 3,910 TEU in FY25, indicating a significant loss of momentum or market share in the sea freight segment. (2 intensifying, 3 easing, 1 high-severity)
“Revenue from Operations 1,193.7 [Q1FY26] 1,420.4 [Q1FY25] (16.0) [YoY%]”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Jet Freight
Read the full thesis on Jet Freight
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