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Inox India
Our verdict on Inox India isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
Total income for the first 9 months of FY26 grew by 20% Y-o-Y, hitting the upper end of the annual guidance range. (5 exceeded across 5 tracked commitments)
“So my question is on the execution. Last time around, you had mentioned that about INR900 crores of revenue will be executed in second half of FY '26, which entails about INR470 crores in the last quarter. So are we on track to achieve that? Or will we exceed it? Deepak Acharya: We are absolutely on track, and we can perform perhaps better than this.”
Management delivered an adjusted EBITDA margin of 23.5% for Q3 FY26, which is within the guided range of 20% to 24%. (4 met across 4 tracked commitments)
“We have the consolidated EBITDA and we are operating within the range of around 20% to 24% on an average based on the different products because it is very difficult to monitor on a case-to-case basis.”
See the full cited Management analysis of Inox India
How durable is the business?
Exports continue to dominate the order backlog at 63%, showing resilience despite US tariff concerns on disposable cylinders. (5 expanding)
“As of 31st March, 2026, our order book stood at INR1,514 crores... approximately 63% is from exports and 37% from the domestic market”
The segment remains the largest revenue contributor at 57% for Q2 FY26, showing strong execution with prestigious orders from U.S. aerospace and European semiconductor firms. (5 expanding across 1 engine)
“given the order book of 50% Industrial Gas, 28% from LNG, and 22% from Cryo-Scientific”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Inox India
Where does growth come from?
The company is expanding its production shop to scale capacity by up to 10 times over the next few years to meet OEM demand. Current capex for FY26 is targeted at INR 80 crores, focusing on Kandla, Kalol, and Savli facilities. (5 accelerating across 5 signals, 2 leading indicators)
“Consolidated Order Backlog – Q4 FY25 to Q4 FY26 (₹Cr) ... Q4 FY26 1514”
The LNG segment continues to show strong traction with a growth outlook exceeding 20% for the next 3-4 years, driven by OEM adoption and regulatory shifts allowing LNG as a mobile fuel. (5 accelerating across 5 signals)
“FY26 Highest ever LNG Segment Revenue ₹ 457 Cr”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Inox India
What could break the thesis?
INTENSIFYING. Contract assets (revenue recognized but not yet billed) rose from INR 126 Cr in March 2025 to INR 221 Cr in June 2025. Management explicitly notes this is due to higher sales recognition under POCM for large projects like Bahamas and High View which have longer lead times for invoicing. (5 intensifying, 2 high-severity)
“The working capital has increased meaningfully in this particular fiscal. It used to be INR731 crores by FY '25, it has gone up to INR990 crore. And primarily one of the driver is contract assets.”
INTENSIFYING. Export revenue reached a record INR 271 Cr (62% of total revenue), and North America remains the largest export geography at 32%. This increases sensitivity to U.S. economic and trade policy. (4 intensifying, 1 easing)
“Revenue contribution from North and Central America increased from 14% in the previous year to approximately 26% in the FY 2026... despite tariff related headwinds.”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Inox India
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