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Inox India
Our verdict on Inox India isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
Management expects to receive an order from ISRO by the end of the year. — target: order placement
“Hopefully, by December end, the RFQ will be out. And if everything goes well and fast, end of the year, they should place the order.”
The company is developing a prototype for data center cooling systems with a German partner, expected in 6 to 8 months. — target: Prototype development
“Yes, we are very close to a discussion with one of the German companies... we are expecting a small prototype to be developed first... the chances that it will happen is around 6 to 8 months, in the next coming few months now.”
Management expects to cross the target of 2 million disposable cylinders in the current year. — target: 2 million units
“The disposed cylinder, we are doing very well. And we will cross our target of 2 million cylinders this year.”
Management expects the LNG fuel tank market to grow such that they represent 25% to 30% of the mix, requiring 30,000 to 40,000 tanks annually in 3 to 5 years. — target: 30,000 to 40,000 tanks (+3 more commitments)
“So going forward, we see a lot of good potential. And over a period of time in next 3 to 5 years, the LNG fuel tanks will be at least 25% to 30% in my opinion. That will require around 30,000 to 40,000 tanks a year.”
The company aims to achieve sales of 60,000 to 70,000 beer kegs in Q4 FY '26. — target: 60,000 to 70,000 units (+1 more commitment)
“We'll try to -- order book of around 100,000 and sale of around 60,000 to 70,000, we will try to achieve in Q4 because it's continuously working now.”
See the full cited Management analysis of Inox India
How durable is the business?
Exports continue to dominate the order backlog at 63%, showing resilience despite US tariff concerns on disposable cylinders. (5 expanding)
“As of 31st March, 2026, our order book stood at INR1,514 crores... approximately 63% is from exports and 37% from the domestic market”
The segment remains the largest revenue contributor at 57% for Q2 FY26, showing strong execution with prestigious orders from U.S. aerospace and European semiconductor firms. (5 expanding across 1 engine)
“given the order book of 50% Industrial Gas, 28% from LNG, and 22% from Cryo-Scientific”
LNG revenue share is stable at 29%, but the company is aggressively expanding capacity (10x target) to meet OEM demand for fuel tanks, with a positive regulatory shift allowing LNG in mobile pressure vessels. (5 expanding)
“To support this growth, we are building capabilities to scale it to as high as 10 times over the course of next few years... 29% from LNG.”
The order backlog for the Cryo-Scientific division is expanding, growing from 19% share of the total backlog to 25% in the current quarter. (1 expanding)
“Segment wise,Qtr.wise (QoQ,YoY ) Order Backlog % ... CSD ... Q3FY25 19% ... Q3FY26 25%”
Revenue share for Q2 FY26 was 25%. While slightly lower than the previous 28% share, management is scaling LNG drill tank production by 10x and bidding for large Southeast Asian projects. (1 stable, 1 expanding)
“income is... 25% from the LNG... for the Q2 FY26.”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Inox India
Where does growth come from?
The company is expanding its production shop to scale capacity by up to 10 times over the next few years to meet OEM demand. Current capex for FY26 is targeted at INR 80 crores, focusing on Kandla, Kalol, and Savli facilities. (5 accelerating across 5 signals, 2 leading indicators)
“Consolidated Order Backlog – Q4 FY25 to Q4 FY26 (₹Cr) ... Q4 FY26 1514”
The LNG segment continues to show strong traction with a growth outlook exceeding 20% for the next 3-4 years, driven by OEM adoption and regulatory shifts allowing LNG as a mobile fuel. (5 accelerating across 5 signals)
“FY26 Highest ever LNG Segment Revenue ₹ 457 Cr”
The aerospace segment is a new and accelerating trend, with the company securing prestigious orders from U.S.-based companies and targeting over 40 global launch pads transitioning to liquid-based systems. (1 new trend, 1 accelerating across 2 signals, 2 leading indicators)
“As of 31st March, 2026, our order book stood at INR1,514 crores, providing strong revenue visibility for the coming quarters of this approximately 63% is from exports and 37% from the domestic market”
While the long-term potential remains massive, the immediate scaling of LNG drill tank production is accelerating with plans to increase capacity by 10x over the next few years. (3 accelerating, 2 new trend across 5 signals)
“During Q4, we received a significant aerospace order from a leading U.S. based private space company with a total order value of approximately INR200 crores. We are expecting more high value orders in Q1 FY '27.”
The company is entering the high-tech data center market by developing specialized liquid nitrogen cooling systems to help large tech companies save energy.
“we have signed an MoU with European company to jointly develop liquid nitrogen-based cooling solution for the data center. This is currently an early-stage R&D led initiative and we expect meaningful development over the next 6 to 12 months.”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Inox India
What could break the thesis?
STABLE. Management confirms that large projects (12-18 month timelines) follow a milestone payment structure: 20-30% upfront, payments upon material availability/hydro testing, and 90-95% at dispatch. While this creates a lag, the company reported total fund availability of INR 221 crores, providing headroom for project execution. (1 stable)
“Stringency related to design, manufacturing and the number of regulations in the cryogenic equipment segment is a barrier to entry”
The company is currently investing in a new facility at Kandla and R&D for data center cooling. If these new technologies (like liquid nitrogen cooling) fail to gain market acceptance or if the facility commissioning is delayed beyond the 9-10 month target, it could hurt future growth projections. [EXECUTION]
“This is currently an early-stage R&D led initiative and we expect meaningful development over the next 6 to 12 months... the facility is expected to be commissioned within approximately 9 to 10 months.”
EASING. Despite the imposition of tariffs, the company received orders for bulk quantities from U.S. customers in Q1 FY26, suggesting the product's competitive position remains strong enough to absorb or bypass tariff impacts. (1 easing, 1 stable)
“Received Orders of Disposable Cylinder for bulk Qty from US Customers even after imposition of Tariff”
The risk is stabilizing as the Savli plant is now operational and entering a 'stabilization' phase (expected to take 6-12 months), with revenue starting to catch up to the front-loaded costs. (1 stable)
“all the new manpower has already joined in our Savli unit and the Savli unit performance is now increasing... as soon as it is stabilized, definitely, my profitability will improve.”
The risk is intensifying as the project order mix has doubled from 30% to over 60% of the total order book, making quarterly performance more dependent on milestone completions. (1 intensifying, 2 easing, 2 stable)
“My standard tanks is reducing, and my non-standard orders are increasing. If you see earlier, it was just 30% project orders. Now we have more than 60% project orders in our order book.”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Inox India
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