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Blackbuck
Our verdict on Blackbuck isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
The core business grew by 31.5% year-on-year in Q3 FY26, surpassing the long-term target of 25%. (1 exceeded across 1 tracked commitment)
“Within that the core businesses had a growth of a very healthy growth of 31.5% on a year-on-year basis”
Transacting customers grew by 13.87% YoY, meeting the double-digit growth target. (4 exceeded, 1 met across 5 tracked commitments)
“whenever we've talked about growth, we've always talked about the numbers of around like 25% levels is how we look at growth.”
Management confirmed receiving full approval for the PPI license on July 2, 2025, moving from the in-principle stage to full approval. (1 met across 1 tracked commitment)
“one of the good milestones for us was we've received the in-principle approval for the PPI license in the last quarter and it will take us probably in a few quarters to operationalize that.”
The company has maintained its target levels for physical distribution infrastructure as of Q2 FY26. (2 met, 2 in progress across 4 tracked commitments)
“And loads in a super loads business from there, from the four hubs over the next course of six months, we plan to open 10 new hubs and take this number in the range of 14-15 hubs over the course of next six months.”
Management aims to embed AI across virtually every product offering in the long term. — target: Full AI integration (+4 more commitments)
“so you would essentially in the long term, you know embed AI in like almost virtually every product offerings in which we have and today.”
See the full cited Management analysis of Blackbuck
How durable is the business?
The core segment continues to expand, with tolling market share growing significantly from 37% to 45.5% over the year, and the company securing an in-principle PPI license to own the payment stack. (5 expanding)
“We ended with -- we started the year with 37. We ended the last year with 37. This year we ended at roughly 45.5.”
The company achieved significant operating leverage, with adjusted EBITDA growing 10x over the previous year as fixed costs remained flat while revenue scaled. (5 expanding)
“Last financial year... that number was close to INR13 crores-INR13.5 crores and that number today is roughly closer to INR139 crores.”
Growth businesses are scaling rapidly, with revenue from these segments growing 90% YoY in FY25. Fuel sensor sales doubled sequentially in the last quarter. (5 expanding across 2 engines)
“- Core (Payments & Telematics) ₹ in Cr 137.42... 31.22% YoY”
The company secured a full PPI (Prepaid Instrument) license approval, which is expected to enhance customer experience and expand margins in the long term. (1 new)
“Last time we gave you an update that we've got the in-principle approval... on this July 2, we got a full approval of our PPI license... it enables a little bit of margin expansion as well.”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Blackbuck
Where does growth come from?
Growth businesses (excluding core tolling and tracking) are expanding rapidly, with revenue growth accelerating to 90% YoY for the full year FY25 compared to 50% in the final quarter. (5 accelerating across 5 signals, 2 leading indicators)
“Growth Businesses ₹ in Cr 34.36 9.25 271.34%”
Core business revenue (Payments & Telematics) continues to grow at a steady pace, maintaining a 40.62% YoY growth rate and contributing the bulk of operational revenue. (2 steady, 1 accelerating across 3 signals)
“- Core (Payments & Telematics) ₹ in Cr: Q1’26 120.26, YoY 40.62%, QoQ 7.70%”
The company is steadily gaining market share in tolling, now inching toward 50% of the market, significantly outperforming industry averages. (3 steady across 3 signals)
“I think you used to mention the market share in tolling closer to 45 and now you're saying closer to 50. So has there been steady market share gain in the last six months? Blackbuck: Yeah. There has been a steady market share gain.”
Growth businesses (Superloads and Vehicle Finance) are showing explosive growth, with revenue increasing 226% sequentially, driven primarily by the Superloads transaction model. (2 accelerating, 1 steady across 3 signals)
“overall revenues on growth businesses have... grown by roughly about 226% on a sequential basis have grown by about 19% and largely the gross revenue growth is because of the super loads business.”
The core segment (Payments & Telematics) remains the primary revenue engine, growing 36.68% YoY. While growth is steady, it is slower than the 'Growth' segment, but provides the high-margin foundation for the company. (1 steady across 1 signal)
“Core (Payments & Telematics) ₹ in Cr 123.35 (Q2'26) vs 90.25 (Q2'25) YoY 36.68%”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Blackbuck
What could break the thesis?
INTENSIFYING: Management has shifted focus from immediate profitability to market share expansion, accepting longer payback periods (moving from 7-8 months to 9-10 months) and increasing investments in sales and marketing. (5 intensifying, 2 high-severity)
“we are aggressively pursuing expansion in superloads which is where superloads and vehicle finance are unprofitable categories for us today.”
The company's core tolling business is heavily dependent on the overall growth of the trucking industry, which is currently seeing relatively slow growth. [DEMAND]
“how the revenue in the tolling business essentially grows versus the industry grew at about 15%”
The risk is EASING as the company achieved a significant jump in adjusted EBITDA (INR 139 Cr vs INR 13.5 Cr YoY) and high contribution margins (93-94%) despite growth investments. (3 easing, 1 stable)
“Calibrated step-up of investments across growth businesses... Growth businesses grew strongly by 271.34% Y-o-Y”
The risk is STABLE but management is countering by securing an in-principle PPI license to own the payment stack end-to-end and reduce dependency on partners. (1 stable)
“one of the good milestones for us was we've received the in-principle approval for the PPI license... This will really help us gain an end-to-end ownership of the payment stack.”
The risk is STABLE, but the company is strengthening its moat by seeking a PPI (Prepaid Payment Instrument) license to own the full payment stack. (1 stable)
“TZF Logistics Solutions... has received in-principal approval for PPI license; this will help get end-to end ownership of the payments stack”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Blackbuck
Read the full thesis on Blackbuck
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