One Mobikwik

Increase lending disbursements from approximately INR700 crore to at least INR1,000 crore every quarter. — target: At least INR1,000 crore disbursement per quarter (+4 more commitments)

Management is targeting incremental quarterly lending disbursals from activating its existing engaged customer base through pre-approved and pre-qualified offers. — target: ₹1,500–2,500 million incremental disbursals per quarter (+4 more commitments)

Use new lending partners, products, pre-approved/pre-qualified offers, and an AI-led funnel intervention to scale lending disbursements. (+4 more commitments)

Ramp up the merchant payments business tenfold over two years. — target: 10x ramp-up (+4 more commitments)

Complete the transition of the digital lending business to a wholly owned subsidiary in August and then seek the final NBFC Certificate of Registration. — target: Complete transition in August and apply for final CoR thereafter (+4 more commitments)

Payments transaction activity expanded strongly even though the reported payments take rate declined. Payments GMV increased 13% quarter-on-quarter and 53% year-on-year, while the take rate fell from 0.6% to 0.5% quarter-on-quarter. This shows continued volume growth but limited monetisation per rupee processed. (5 expanding across 1 engine)

Financial Services profitability recovered sharply. Gross profit increased from INR 77.36 million to INR 256.09 million quarter-on-quarter, while gross margin rose from 13.3% to 41.8%. Lending-related expenses fell 29.5%, supporting a large improvement in contribution from the lending business. (5 expanding across 1 engine)

Lending-related direct costs fell materially from 7.3% of disbursals in Q1 FY26 to 4.4% in Q2 FY26, a reduction of approximately 39.7%. Management attributed the improvement to the winding down of older loan books and recoveries from newer loans. This supports improving unit economics, although EBITDA remained negative at the company level. (5 expanding)

The regulatory moat broadened through new regulated activities and partnerships. MobiKwik launched Digital Rupee transactions with the RBI, launched an FX Retail platform with NBBL and RBI, and received SEBI approval for stock broking. These are new capabilities rather than proven revenue streams, but they increase the number of regulated financial products the platform can offer. (3 new, 1 expanding)

The two-sided network expanded: registered users increased 1.8% quarter-on-quarter and 9.9% year-on-year, while merchants increased 1.5% quarter-on-quarter and 7.0% year-on-year. The network consists mainly of offline merchants, with 4.54 million offline merchants versus 0.16 million online merchants. (2 expanding, 2 stable)

Customer-initiated UPI transactions increased every quarter shown: 40.12 million in Q2 FY25, 54.09 million in Q3 FY25, 77.65 million in Q4 FY25, 100.05 million in Q1 FY26 and 138.26 million in Q2 FY26. Growth accelerated recently, with transactions rising 38% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 FY26 and 3.5 times year-on-year. MobiKwik was among the top three fastest-growing UPI apps based on transaction growth among the top 20 TPAPs. (5 accelerating across 5 signals)

The lending business is moving toward a regulated NBFC structure, which could support future on-book lending and co-lending. RBI in-principle approval and shareholder approval are complete; the transfer to the wholly owned subsidiary is targeted for August 2026, after which the Certificate of Registration is expected.

The current presentation reports total payments GMV, not the earlier standalone merchant-payments GMV figure. Total payments GMV rose from INR 283 billion in Q2 FY25 to INR 432 billion in Q2 FY26, up 53% year-on-year, and from INR 384 billion in Q1 FY26 to INR 432 billion in Q2 FY26, up 13% quarter-on-quarter. Merchant count also increased from 4.40 million to 4.71 million year-on-year. The broader payments platform is therefore accelerating, although a separate merchant-GMV trajectory is not disclosed. (5 accelerating across 5 signals)

Management confirms that a stickier, higher-quality payments customer is taking personal loans, while marketing investment has remained flat or declined. This supports the cross-sell thesis, but no quarterly disbursement contribution or quantified Rs. 150-250 crore uplift is provided in this document. (3 new trend, 1 accelerating across 4 signals)

UPI is expanding rapidly enough to reduce the overall payment revenue rate because UPI itself currently generates no direct revenue. Pure UPI represents about 40% of payment GMV. This shows accelerating volume mix but weaker monetisation. (1 accelerating, 4 new trend across 5 signals, 3 leading indicators)

In Q2 FY26, management acknowledged that AUM was stagnant and said growth depended on user acquisition and credit partners. It emphasised that disbursals, rather than AUM alone, were the key growth measure and that it was scaling prudently. By the Aug 2026 baseline, lending disbursements had declined for two consecutive quarters and management was targeting an increase from about INR700 crore to INR1,000 crore. This indicates that the earlier growth concern developed into a more pronounced demand and execution problem. (1 intensifying, 4 easing, 1 high-severity)

The regulatory risk was already material in Q3 FY26. Management confirmed that the BNPL product ZIP had been wound down because its regulatory position was unclear, and that Rentpay had been shut across the market following regulatory action on rent payments. The baseline confirms that additional card-linked payment categories were paused in Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27. Thus, from Q3 FY26 to the later baseline, the impact broadened rather than disappeared. (1 intensifying, 4 easing, 2 high-severity)

In Q2 FY26, lending margin pressure was significant: management said pure distribution generated only about 2–4% margins, while the overall lending profit was about 3%. It attributed lower costs partly to the winding down of older loan books and recoveries in newer books, showing that reported improvement was partly linked to portfolio clean-up and recoveries. The Aug 2026 baseline later identified around INR16 crore of past-book recoveries, equal to roughly 18% of lending gross revenue, and noted that long-term margin guidance was below the latest reported margin. The risk therefore intensified from an acknowledged margin-recovery dependence to a quantified concern about non-repeatable gains. (2 intensifying, 3 easing, 3 high-severity)

The Q4 FY26 call confirms that a key wallet-over-UPI MDR mechanism had not yet been introduced. Management said this was causing a revenue lag despite strong transaction growth. The later baseline states that a product was paused in Q4 FY26 and again in Q1 FY27, indicating that the regulatory/relaunch risk persisted and became more visible after this call. Severity therefore remained high and appears to have intensified. (1 intensifying, 2 easing, 2 stable, 2 high-severity)

Revenue growth has been muted for several quarters, and growth assumptions depend on successful cross-selling to the existing user base. If users do not take loans or other paid products, payment scale may not translate into revenue growth. [DEMAND] (+1 more risk)