AI-generated · cited to primary sources · not investment advice
Billionbrains (544603) Jan 2026 Filing Analysis
Does management do what it says?
Management confirmed that consolidation of the wealth acquisition (Fisdom) began in October, reflecting in the Q3 FY26 results. (3 met across 3 tracked commitments)
“We think it is better to look at Adjusted EBITDA to determine the operating health of the company due to the one-off adjustments which will be normalised Q4 FY26 onwards.”
Management indicated that the MTF book is growing by approximately INR 600 crores every quarter, maintaining momentum from previous quarters, though specific market share percentage was not disclosed. (2 in progress, 1 missed across 3 tracked commitments)
“So, the way I think historically it has grown is roughly INR600 crores we are adding almost every quarter. I think this momentum is continuing from last three quarters and I think we see that momentum to continue in the future as well.”
Management views CAC and marketing spends on an annual basis rather than quarterly due to seasonality.
“We believe that the right lens to look at CAC and marketing spends is on an annual basis.”
See the full cited Management analysis of Billionbrains
How durable is the business?
The company is demonstrating high operating leverage as the cost to grow (marketing) declined even as user acquisition hit record highs. (1 expanding)
“Consequently, our CAC improved by 33% QoQ in this quarter to ~₹900. We believe that the right lens to look at CAC and marketing spends is on an annual basis.”
The segment is undergoing a structural shift where the total number of active F&O users has decreased (from ~2 million to 1.47 million), but the revenue per user is rising because remaining traders are executing larger ticket sizes due to new regulations and increased lot sizes. (1 shifted)
“Because some of the -- we already had like more than almost 2 million customers who were active on F&O side. Today we have 1.47. Large part of that is actually existing customers.”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Billionbrains
Where does growth come from?
A new growth trend has emerged with the launch of Commodity Derivatives. In its first full quarter, it already accounts for 3.5% of total income and has attracted 255k active users. (1 new trend across 1 signal)
“We introduced Commodity Derivatives in a phased manner in Q2 FY26 and saw a sharp adoption in Q3... In revenue terms, it was 3.5% of Total Income in Q3, whereas for Q2, it was less than 0.5%.”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Billionbrains
What could break the thesis?
EASING. Management reported a reduction in headcount (down 100 employees QoQ) and noted that fixed costs are expected to grow only 10-20% while revenue is growing faster, leading to EBITDA margin expansion. (1 easing)
“Previous quarter, we had 1,450 approximate employees. This quarter, we had 1,350. So we've reduced it by 100... our variable cost is roughly like - 10%... Rest all is more on the fixed nature.”
The risk is stable to easing. While absolute costs rose, the company demonstrated operating leverage as 'Cost to Serve' as a % of revenue fell from 13.4% to 12.8% YoY. (1 stable)
“Cost to Serve: Q3 FY25 ₹1,302 Mn | 13.4% vs Q3 FY26 ₹1,521 Mn | 12.8%”
INTENSIFYING. Management confirms that recent SEBI regulations have forced smaller retail traders out, causing a shift where only larger-ticket traders remain. While this increased the 'premium' per user, it indicates a narrowing, more concentrated active user base (1.47 million vs previous 2 million). (1 intensifying)
“lot of the customers who were doing smaller transactions actually stopped doing those transactions because number of expiries reduced... we already had like more than almost 2 million customers who were active on F&O side. Today we have 1.47.”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Billionbrains
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