Company AnalysisAnalysis as of 17 Jun 2026

AI-generated · cited to primary sources · not investment advice · How we research

Applied Digital Corporation - Common Stock

NASDAQ:APLD

Our verdict on Applied Digital Corporation - Common Stock isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.

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01 · Management Credibility

Does management do what it says?

ExceededCapex per MW
100/100

Capex has accelerated significantly into FY2026, with property and equipment net increasing from $1.25 billion at May 31, 2025, to over $3.0 billion by February 28, 2026. (1 exceeded across 1 tracked commitment)

We believe that the significant investments in property and equipment will remain throughout fiscal year 2025 as we continue construction of our HPC hosting facilities.

Applied Digital Corporation - Common Stock · QUARTERLY_REPORT · Feb 2025 · p.89
MetGPU Deployment Ramp
85/100

The company successfully energized its first 100 MW HPC data center (Building 2) for CoreWeave in November 2025, contributing to a significant revenue inflection. (2 met across 2 tracked commitments)

Approximately $85.0 million of the increase was due to revenue generated related to our HPC Hosting Business, with approximately $73.0 million related to tenant fit-out services and $12.0 million related to rental revenues as ELN-02 at Polaris Forge 1 fully energized during the current quarter.

Applied Digital Corporation - Common Stock · QUARTERLY_REPORT · Nov 2025 · p.78
In progressCapex Financing Risk
80/100

The company completed the Series E-1 offering and significantly expanded its capital raising through a new Series G Preferred Stock program. (1 exceeded, 1 in progress across 2 tracked commitments)

The Company has the ability and intent to sell additional shares of Series E-1 Preferred Stock which would generate proceeds of approximately $12.0 million.

Applied Digital Corporation - Common Stock · QUARTERLY_REPORT · Feb 2025 · p.21
In progressLarge Hosting Contract
73/100

The company executed a 15-year lease agreement with a U.S. based investment grade hyperscaler for 200 MW of capacity at the Polaris Forge 2 campus. (1 met, 1 in progress across 2 tracked commitments)

We continue negotiations with multiple US-based hyperscalers for up to a 400 MW capacity lease, inclusive of the Ellendale HPC Facility under construction and two forthcoming buildings at the Ellendale Campus.

Applied Digital Corporation - Common Stock · QUARTERLY_REPORT · Feb 2025 · p.58
MetProject Financing Close
73/100

The commitment from Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) was significantly upsized to $4.9 billion under the Amended and Restated Unit Purchase Agreement. (1 revised, 2 met across 3 tracked commitments)

MAM will invest up to $900 million to fund the equity portion of the construction costs for the Ellendale Campus, with the initial investment of $225 million payable at closing, and the remaining $675 million payable in increments of $2.25 million for each executed lease of 1 MW of capacity.

Applied Digital Corporation - Common Stock · QUARTERLY_REPORT · Feb 2025 · p.68

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02 · Business Model

How durable is the business?

Contracted and Energized MW
76/100

The HPC Hosting segment is rapidly expanding as the primary growth engine, with revenue increasing from zero in the prior year to $71.0 million this quarter as the Polaris Forge 1 campus became operational. It now accounts for 56% of total revenue. (1 expanding across 1 engine)

HPC Hosting Business Revenue $ 71,008... Segment profit (loss) $ 17,565

Applied Digital Corporation - Common Stock · QUARTERLY_REPORT · Feb 2026 · p.65
Contract Quality Over Headline MW
56/100

Customer concentration remains extreme, with one customer accounting for 93% of revenue from continuing operations, up from 56% in the previous period. (2 shifted, 2 stable)

Below is a summary of the Company’s revenue concentration by major customers... Customer A 56%... [Page 78] We currently operate our Cloud Services Business in three states: Colorado, Minnesota, and Utah... [Page 80] Polaris Forge 1 campus... Polaris Forge 2 campus near Harwood, North Dakota.

Applied Digital Corporation - Common Stock · QUARTERLY_REPORT · Feb 2026 · p.26
GPU Deployment Ramp
55/100

The segment revenue share decreased significantly as the company shifted from providing compute power to providing 'fit-out' services (preparing data centers for tenants). While revenue grew, the segment reported an operating loss compared to prior profitability. (1 shifted, 1 expanding across 1 engine)

Cloud Services Business Revenue $ 18,087... Segment profit (loss) $ (52,194)

Applied Digital Corporation - Common Stock · QUARTERLY_REPORT · Feb 2026 · p.65
Miners Converting to HPC
33/100

The segment has been officially reclassified as a discontinued operation and is held for sale. It is no longer part of the company's continuing operations as management executes a strategic shift toward large-scale data center infrastructure. (1 exited, 1 contracting, 1 stable)

the Company reported the Cloud Services Business as discontinued operations... results of the Cloud Services Business have been excluded from both continuing operations and segment results

Applied Digital Corporation - Common Stock · QUARTERLY_REPORT · Aug 2025 · p.18
Other Findings
29/100

The segment has been reclassified as discontinued operations and is held for sale, representing a strategic exit from direct cloud computing services to focus on infrastructure hosting. (2 exited, 1 shifted)

We are a U.S. designer, developer, and operator of high-performance, sustainably engineered data centers and colocation services for artificial intelligence (“AI”), networking, and blockchain workloads... We operate in three distinct business segments, data center hosting (the "Data Center Hosting Business"), cloud services (the “Cloud Services Business”) and HPC data center hosting (the "HPC Hosting Business")

Applied Digital Corporation - Common Stock · QUARTERLY_REPORT · Feb 2026 · p.74

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03 · Future Growth

Where does growth come from?

Contracted and Energized MW
82/100

The company has broken ground on its first 100 MW HPC facility in Ellendale and is planning a total of 400 MW capacity across three buildings at that campus. (1 new trend, 4 accelerating across 5 signals, 1 leading indicator)

We recently commenced operations at our first HPC data center at our Polaris Forge 1 campus with 100MW of capacity. We continue building our second HPC data center at Polaris Forge 1 to provide an additional 150MW of capacity... Our third HPC focused data center facility at Polaris Forge 1, which is expected to provide an additional 150MW of capacity, is currently under construction, with an anticipated ready for service date in 2027.

Applied Digital Corporation - Common Stock · QUARTERLY_REPORT · Feb 2026 · p.80
GPU Deployment Ramp
77/100

While the HPC segment is being built out, the Cloud Services segment (AI/ML compute) has officially launched and begun generating revenue, showing a rapid ramp-up from zero. (5 accelerating across 5 signals)

HPC Hosting Business Revenue $ 71,008 [for the three months ended February 28, 2026]... We recognized $71.0 million and $182.3 million, in revenue from this business segment during the three and nine months ended February 28, 2026, respectively.

Applied Digital Corporation - Common Stock · QUARTERLY_REPORT · Feb 2026 · p.65
Project Financing Close
75/100

While the massive $2.35B figure refers to total potential needs, the company successfully closed a $125 million CIM Promissory Note and a $160 million PIPE (Private Investment in Public Equity) involving NVIDIA, significantly de-risking near-term capex. (2 new trend, 3 accelerating across 5 signals)

On November 20, 2025, APLD ComputeCo LLC (“Issuer”), a subsidiary of the Company, completed a private offering of 9.25% Senior Secured Notes due 2030... The aggregate principal amount of Notes sold in the offering was $2.35 billion.

Applied Digital Corporation - Common Stock · QUARTERLY_REPORT · Feb 2026 · p.34
Large Hosting Contract
70/100

The company has moved from identifying an anchor tenant to executing a Letter of Intent (LOI) for a massive 400 MW lease, doubling the previously noted traction size. (3 accelerating, 2 new trend across 5 signals)

On October 22, 2025, we announced that we entered into an approximately 15-year lease agreement with a U.S. based investment grade hyperscaler for 200 MW of critical IT load at our Polaris Forge 2 campus.

Applied Digital Corporation - Common Stock · QUARTERLY_REPORT · Feb 2026 · p.80
Power Access Is the Moat
70/100

The company is securing long-term power access, a critical moat in AI infrastructure, through a strategic investment in B&W to develop massive power generation capacity. (1 steady, 1 new trend across 2 signals, 2 leading indicators)

The Design-Build Agreement contemplates the engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning of a power generation facility with an expected nameplate capacity of approximately 1.2 GW anticipated to expand power and capacity supplied to the grid and utility customers.

Applied Digital Corporation - Common Stock · QUARTERLY_REPORT · Feb 2026 · p.30

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04 · Risk

What could break the thesis?

Bitcoin Optionality Cuts Both Ways
55/100

Exposure remains absolute for current revenue, as 100% of continuing operations revenue currently comes from the Data Center Hosting Business serving crypto miners. (1 stable, 1 easing)

These factors include, but are not limited to: ... volatility of cryptoasset prices; and uncertainties of cryptoasset regulation policy

Applied Digital Corporation - Common Stock · QUARTERLY_REPORT · Feb 2026 · p.72
Grid and Permitting Pressure
51/100

Regulatory risk is intensifying. California passed the Transparency in Frontier Artificial Intelligence Act in September 2025, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration is increasing scrutiny on data center energy usage. (1 intensifying)

On September 29, 2025, California passed the Transparency in Frontier Artificial Intelligence Act into law, which requires certain AI companies to fulfill transparency requirements and report AI-related safety incidents

Applied Digital Corporation - Common Stock · QUARTERLY_REPORT · Feb 2026 · p.76
Project Financing Close

Cash outflow pressure is intensifying. Estimated interest on debt obligations is $102.7 million and preferred share dividends are $37.8 million through FY2030. (2 intensifying)

Interest on debt obligations 102,692... Preferred share dividends 37,812

Applied Digital Corporation - Common Stock · Annual Report · May 2025 · p.62
Capex per MW

This risk is intensifying as the company issued more preferred stock and took on more debt. Preferred dividends for the six months ended Nov 2025 were $3.1 million compared to $0.7 million in the prior year, and interest obligations have ballooned. (1 intensifying)

Preferred dividends (3,146) (673)

Applied Digital Corporation - Common Stock · QUARTERLY_REPORT · Nov 2025 · p.5
Power Cost per MWh

Cost pressures are intensifying as interest expense rose 33% year-over-year and preferred dividend obligations increased from $44k to $1.57M following the issuance of Series E and G shares. (1 intensifying)

Interest expense, net 3,946 [vs] 2,959... Preferred dividends (1,576) [vs] (44)

Applied Digital Corporation - Common Stock · QUARTERLY_REPORT · Aug 2025 · p.6

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Filing Analysis by Period

Applied Digital Corporation - Common Stock analysis by filing period

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