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AST SpaceMobile, Inc. - Class A Common Stock
Our verdict on AST SpaceMobile, Inc. - Class A Common Stock isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
Management delivered on the scheduled $100.0 million payment to Ligado for the benefit of Inmarsat as outlined in the Settlement Term Sheet. (1 met across 1 tracked commitment)
“We continue to estimate the average capital costs, consisting of direct materials and launch costs, for a constellation of over 90 Block 2 BB satellites to be approximately $21.0 million to $23.0 million per satellite, with initial launches higher than that range and trending down over time”
The launch of the first Block 2 satellite (FM 1 / BlueBird 6) has been delayed by approximately one quarter. It was shipped in October 2025 rather than the original Q2 2025 target. (2 revised, 1 met across 3 tracked commitments)
“once we complete our planned investments to increase the capacity to assemble, integrate, and test up to six Block 2 BB satellites per month in 2025, we plan to accelerate the manufacturing, assembly, integration and testing of the Block 2 BB satellites to meet our planned launches in 2025 and 2026.”
See the full cited Management analysis of AST SpaceMobile, Inc. - Class A Common Stock
How durable is the business?
Revenue from equipment resale to mobile network operators (MNOs) is expanding significantly as the company begins commercial readiness activities, though it remains a pre-operational revenue stream. (4 expanding)
“During the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, the Company recognized... $7.7 million and $8.1 million, respectively, from the resale of gateway equipment, software and related services to mobile network operators.”
Revenue from government contracts is expanding as the company completes performance milestones for U.S. government agencies like the SDA and DIU. (2 expanding across 2 engines)
“Services revenues of $1.3 million and $0.3 million for the three months ended March 31, 2026 and 2025, respectively, were primarily attributable to the completion of performance obligations under agreements with the U.S. government”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of AST SpaceMobile, Inc. - Class A Common Stock
Where does growth come from?
The development of the next-generation Block 2 satellites is accelerating with the completion of the ASIC chip design, which is a critical milestone for increasing network capacity. (5 accelerating across 5 signals, 3 leading indicators)
“We have completed our planned investments to increase the capacity to assemble, integrate, and test up to six Block 2 BB satellites per month. As the planned capacity has been achieved, we continue to accelerate our manufacturing, assembly, integration and testing to reach the production run rate of up to six Block 2 BB satellites per month to meet our planned launches in 2026.”
The company recorded its first contract liabilities for advance payments, indicating the start of commercial cash inflows even before service launch. (2 new trend, 1 steady across 3 signals)
“Revenue allocated to remaining performance obligations, which includes contract liabilities and amounts that will be invoiced and recognized as revenue in future periods, was approximately $1.2 billion as of March 31, 2026. The Company expects to recognize approximately 8.4% of its remaining performance obligations as revenue over the next 12 months and the remainder thereafter.”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of AST SpaceMobile, Inc. - Class A Common Stock
What could break the thesis?
Operating expenses rose 42% year-over-year for the quarter ($94.4M vs $66.6M). Engineering services costs, a key driver of satellite development, spiked 87% due to increased headcount and global footprint expansion. (3 intensifying, 1 high-severity)
“Net loss attributable to common stockholders $ (191,012) [for 2026] $ (45,706) [for 2025]”
The risk is intensifying as the company has now committed $420.0 million in cash to Ligado/Inmarsat despite the transaction still being subject to 'receipt of satisfactory regulatory approvals' and other closing conditions. Total contingent payments have reached $550 million. (1 intensifying, 1 high-severity)
“The Company presented the $520.0 million payments as capital advances to Ligado... The closing of the Spectrum Usage Rights Transaction is still subject to receipt of satisfactory regulatory approvals”
See the full cited Risk analysis of AST SpaceMobile, Inc. - Class A Common Stock
Read the full thesis on AST SpaceMobile, Inc. - Class A Common Stock
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