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AST SpaceMobile, Inc. - Class A Common Stock
Our verdict on AST SpaceMobile, Inc. - Class A Common Stock isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
Management delivered on the scheduled $100.0 million payment to Ligado for the benefit of Inmarsat as outlined in the Settlement Term Sheet. (1 met across 1 tracked commitment)
“We continue to estimate the average capital costs, consisting of direct materials and launch costs, for a constellation of over 90 Block 2 BB satellites to be approximately $21.0 million to $23.0 million per satellite, with initial launches higher than that range and trending down over time”
The launch of the first Block 2 satellite (FM 1 / BlueBird 6) has been delayed by approximately one quarter. It was shipped in October 2025 rather than the original Q2 2025 target. (2 revised, 1 met across 3 tracked commitments)
“once we complete our planned investments to increase the capacity to assemble, integrate, and test up to six Block 2 BB satellites per month in 2025, we plan to accelerate the manufacturing, assembly, integration and testing of the Block 2 BB satellites to meet our planned launches in 2025 and 2026.”
The company has begun recognizing revenue from government contracts, including the SDA award, though specific cumulative progress toward the $43M total is not broken out. (1 in progress across 1 tracked commitment)
“a new contract award entered in February 2025 with the United States Space Development Agency (“SDA”) through a prime contractor with total expected revenue of $43.0 million”
The expected $175.0 million prepayment from STC was not recorded as received in 2025; instead, the company entered into a ten-year commercial agreement in October 2025 without disclosing the receipt of the specific prepayment amount in the Q1 2026 cash flow or contract liability notes. (1 revised across 1 tracked commitment)
“We believe our cash and cash equivalents on hand will be sufficient to meet our current working capital needs, planned operating expenses and capital expenditures for a period of the next 12 months from the date of this Quarterly Report.”
Management expects to recognize $100.0 million in payments to Ligado for the benefit of Inmarsat on March 31, 2026. — target: $100.0 million
“it will pay $420.0 million to Ligado for the benefit of Inmarsat on October 31, 2025, $100.0 million to Ligado for the benefit of Inmarsat on March 31, 2026 and $15.0 million to Ligado for the benefit of Inmarsat on receipt of specified regulatory approvals”
See the full cited Management analysis of AST SpaceMobile, Inc. - Class A Common Stock
How durable is the business?
Revenue from equipment resale to mobile network operators (MNOs) is expanding significantly as the company begins commercial readiness activities, though it remains a pre-operational revenue stream. (4 expanding)
“During the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, the Company recognized... $7.7 million and $8.1 million, respectively, from the resale of gateway equipment, software and related services to mobile network operators.”
Revenue from government contracts is expanding as the company completes performance milestones for U.S. government agencies like the SDA and DIU. (2 expanding across 2 engines)
“Services revenues of $1.3 million and $0.3 million for the three months ended March 31, 2026 and 2025, respectively, were primarily attributable to the completion of performance obligations under agreements with the U.S. government”
The balance sheet has shifted from a pure cash position to a more complex structure involving significant new debt (convertible notes) and spectrum acquisitions, though liquidity remains high. (1 shifted, 2 expanding)
“As of March 31, 2026, we had approximately $3,458.9 million of cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash on hand... We believe that we are fully funded for our costs necessary to manufacture and launch a constellation of approximately 90 BB satellites.”
The company's technological moat remains stable as the Chief Technology Officer, Dr. Huiwen Yao, entered into a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan to sell up to 160,000 shares. While this is a personal financial decision, it indicates the leadership responsible for the IP remains in place through at least September 2026. (4 stable)
“The Company’s IP portfolio consists of 38 patent families worldwide. As of March 31, 2026, the Company has approximately 3,900 patent and patent pending claims worldwide... The Block 2 BB satellites feature an up to approximately 2,400 square feet phased array, the largest phased array ever deployed in a LEO for commercial use”
While the US remains the primary focus, the company is shifting toward a global footprint through a new joint venture with Vodafone (SatCo) to distribute services in Europe and the UK. (1 shifted)
“On July 7, 2025, the Company and Vodafone entered into an agreement to create SatCo, a jointly-owned European satellite service business headquartered in Luxembourg, to exclusively distribute the Company’s broadband satellite services to MNOs in European markets.”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of AST SpaceMobile, Inc. - Class A Common Stock
Where does growth come from?
The development of the next-generation Block 2 satellites is accelerating with the completion of the ASIC chip design, which is a critical milestone for increasing network capacity. (5 accelerating across 5 signals, 3 leading indicators)
“We have completed our planned investments to increase the capacity to assemble, integrate, and test up to six Block 2 BB satellites per month. As the planned capacity has been achieved, we continue to accelerate our manufacturing, assembly, integration and testing to reach the production run rate of up to six Block 2 BB satellites per month to meet our planned launches in 2026.”
The company recorded its first contract liabilities for advance payments, indicating the start of commercial cash inflows even before service launch. (2 new trend, 1 steady across 3 signals)
“Revenue allocated to remaining performance obligations, which includes contract liabilities and amounts that will be invoiced and recognized as revenue in future periods, was approximately $1.2 billion as of March 31, 2026. The Company expects to recognize approximately 8.4% of its remaining performance obligations as revenue over the next 12 months and the remainder thereafter.”
The acquisition of spectrum rights is a critical regulatory and strategic milestone, providing access to 45 MHz of mid-band spectrum in the US and Canada. (1 new trend across 1 signal, 1 leading indicator)
“we expect our network will be enhanced by our long-term access to up to 45 MHz of the lower mid-band satellite spectrum in the United States (“U.S.”) and Canada through our usage agreements... We expect the acquisition will further enhance our network by up to 60 MHz of mid-band satellite spectrum globally.”
AST SpaceMobile has established a massive potential customer base through partnerships with nearly 60 mobile network operators who collectively serve over 3 billion subscribers worldwide.
“We currently have partnerships with nearly 60 MNOs with over 3 billion subscribers globally.”
A significant growth constraint occurred with the loss of the BB7 satellite during launch, which will result in a financial write-off of up to $160 million and requires a replacement launch.
“On April 19, 2026... the Company's Block 2 BB7 satellite was placed into a lower than planned orbit... and was de-orbited. The Company estimates the carrying value of the satellite to be in the range of $155.0 million to $160.0 million.”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of AST SpaceMobile, Inc. - Class A Common Stock
What could break the thesis?
Operating expenses rose 42% year-over-year for the quarter ($94.4M vs $66.6M). Engineering services costs, a key driver of satellite development, spiked 87% due to increased headcount and global footprint expansion. (3 intensifying, 1 high-severity)
“Net loss attributable to common stockholders $ (191,012) [for 2026] $ (45,706) [for 2025]”
The risk is intensifying as the company has now committed $420.0 million in cash to Ligado/Inmarsat despite the transaction still being subject to 'receipt of satisfactory regulatory approvals' and other closing conditions. Total contingent payments have reached $550 million. (1 intensifying, 1 high-severity)
“The Company presented the $520.0 million payments as capital advances to Ligado... The closing of the Spectrum Usage Rights Transaction is still subject to receipt of satisfactory regulatory approvals”
Cash burn is accelerating. Net cash used in operating activities increased to $136.5 million for the first nine months of 2025 compared to $97.7 million in the prior year period. Investing activities (capex) exploded to $697.0 million from $92.1 million. (2 intensifying, 1 easing, 1 high-severity)
“Net cash used in operating activities (48,058) [for 2026] (28,546) [for 2025]”
Debt levels have surged significantly. Long-term debt (net) rose to $697.6 million from $155.6 million at year-end 2024. Subsequent to the quarter, the company issued an additional $1.15 billion in convertible notes, bringing total debt obligations well over $2 billion. (2 intensifying, 1 easing, 1 stable, 1 high-severity)
“Total debt $ 3,024,121 [as of March 31, 2026] $ 2,264,435 [as of December 31, 2025]”
The risk is stable but remains high as the company transitions to a 'launch campaign' cadence of one launch every 1-2 months in 2025-2026. Success is contingent on third-party launch providers and regulatory approvals for each shipment. (2 stable, 2 intensifying, 1 high-severity)
“The Company estimates the carrying value of the satellite to be in the range of $155.0 million to $160.0 million... the Company will account for this event as an asset write-off in the second quarter of 2026 as a loss within Operating Expenses”
See the full cited Risk analysis of AST SpaceMobile, Inc. - Class A Common Stock
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. - Class A Common Stock analysis by filing period
Read the full thesis on AST SpaceMobile, Inc. - Class A Common Stock
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