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Micron Technology, Inc. - Common Stock
Our verdict on Micron Technology, Inc. - Common Stock isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
While FY25 is closed, the cash flow statement for the first six months of FY25 shows $7.26 billion in capex, which aligns with the $14 billion annual run rate previously guided. (1 met across 1 tracked commitment)
“For the first six months of 2025, net cash used for investing activities consisted primarily of $7.26 billion of expenditures for property, plant, and equipment.”
Management reaffirmed the $14 billion capex target for fiscal 2025, noting it is net of government incentives. (1 met across 1 tracked commitment)
“We estimate capital expenditures in 2025 for property, plant, and equipment, net of proceeds from government incentives, to be approximately $14 billion.”
See the full cited Management analysis of Micron Technology, Inc. - Common Stock
How durable is the business?
The segment (reported as CNBU in the current period) is rapidly expanding, driven by a nearly 50% sequential increase in High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) sales for AI applications. (2 expanding)
“CNBU revenue increased 11% primarily due to higher sales of HBM products, which increased nearly 50%, along with growth in our high-capacity DRAM and low-power server DRAM.”
Micron is significantly expanding its manufacturing moat through the CHIPS Act, securing $6.4 billion in grants to build leading-edge fabs in Idaho and New York. (2 expanding)
“The grants under the funding agreements represent total CHIPS Act grants of up to $6.4 billion in connection with our U.S. manufacturing expansion and modernization projects.”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Micron Technology, Inc. - Common Stock
Where does growth come from?
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is driving massive demand for memory and storage in data centers, growing faster than the industry can supply it. — Total Revenue: 196% YoY (+4 more signals)
“The AI-driven growth in the data center has accelerated demand for memory and storage at a rate greater than our ability and the industry’s ability to increase supply.”
Expansion plans are accelerating with the addition of a second planned fab in Idaho to meet AI-fueled demand, supported by $6.4 billion in CHIPS Act grants. (1 accelerating across 1 signal)
“In June 2025... we announced plans for a second leading-edge memory manufacturing fab in Idaho to serve growing market demand fueled by AI.”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Micron Technology, Inc. - Common Stock
What could break the thesis?
Micron faces significant legal risk from patent infringement lawsuits, specifically a jury verdict in May 2024 that could require the company to pay $445 million in damages to Netlist. [REGULATORY] (+4 more risks)
“a jury rendered a verdict that Micron’s memory modules infringe two asserted patents—U.S. Patent No. 7,619,912 (“the ‘912 patent”) and U.S. Patent No. 11,093,417 (“the ‘417 patent”)—and found that Micron should pay $425 million for infringement of the ‘912 patent and $20 million for infringement of the ‘417 patent.”
Execution risk is intensifying as the scale of planned investment has grown. The company now projects 2026 capital expenditures to be significantly higher than previous years, and has added a second planned fab in Idaho to its roadmap. (1 intensifying)
“We estimate capital expenditures for property, plant, and equipment, net of proceeds from government incentives, to be approximately $4.5 billion in first quarter of 2026... Actual amounts for 2026 will vary... [and] we announced plans for a second leading-edge memory manufacturing fab in Idaho.”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Micron Technology, Inc. - Common Stock
Read the full thesis on Micron Technology, Inc. - Common Stock
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