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Palantir Technologies Inc. - Class A Common Stock
Our verdict on Palantir Technologies Inc. - Class A Common Stock isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
U.S. revenue growth accelerated significantly, with U.S. commercial revenue specifically growing 121% YoY in the quarter. (2 exceeded across 2 tracked commitments)
“Revenue from U.S. commercial customers was $396.7 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025 compared to $179.2 million for the same period in 2024, a 121% increase.”
R&D expenses increased in absolute dollars as promised, rising 23% YoY for the nine-month period. (2 met across 2 tracked commitments)
“The Company plans to adopt the standard in its consolidated financial statement for the year ending December 31, 2025”
See the full cited Management analysis of Palantir Technologies Inc. - Class A Common Stock
How durable is the business?
The Government segment revenue grew 49% YoY in Q2 2025, maintaining its position as the primary revenue engine with a 55% share of total revenue. (3 expanding)
“We build software that empowers organizations to effectively integrate their data, decisions, and operations at scale... Foundry is becoming a central operating system not only for individual institutions but also for entire industries.”
The Commercial segment revenue share slightly decreased to 46.4% from 47.4%, despite a massive 73% year-over-year revenue growth. The segment's contribution margin improved significantly from 60% to 66%. (2 expanding)
“Commercial contribution 360,377 66 % 189,997 60 %”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Palantir Technologies Inc. - Class A Common Stock
Where does growth come from?
U.S. Commercial revenue is a high-velocity growth engine, accelerating with a 40% year-over-year increase in the most recent quarter. (5 accelerating across 5 signals, 1 leading indicator)
“In 2023, we began deploying our newest offering, AIP, which is designed for customers across the commercial and government sectors, enabling them to derive value from recent breakthroughs in artificial intelligence via the combination of our existing software platforms with generative AI models, including LLMs.”
U.S. Commercial revenue is a primary growth engine, accelerating to 55% YoY growth in Q2 2024 compared to 47% for the first half of the year. (2 accelerating across 2 signals)
“Revenue from U.S. commercial customers was $595 million for the three months ended March 31, 2026 compared to $255 million for the same period in 2025, a 133% increase.”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Palantir Technologies Inc. - Class A Common Stock
What could break the thesis?
The risk is stable but significant; the company has a $1.95 billion commitment through 2033. While they are meeting annual targets ($160.2 million satisfied for the current year), the long-term fixed cost remains a high hurdle for margins. (2 stable, 1 easing, 1 intensifying, 1 high-severity)
“Under the amended agreement, the Company has committed to spend at least $5.6 billion, with annual minimum commitments of $268 million to $979 million, over ten contract years through February 29, 2036”
Regulatory risk is intensifying as the EU AIA has been adopted and will impose 'onerous obligations' once effective. Additionally, US states like Colorado are beginning to pass similar restrictive AI legislation. (3 intensifying, 2 easing, 3 high-severity)
“The Class F common stock generally gives the Founders the ability to control up to 49.999999% of the total voting power of the Company’s capital stock”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Palantir Technologies Inc. - Class A Common Stock
Read the full thesis on Palantir Technologies Inc. - Class A Common Stock
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