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Rigetti Computing, Inc. - Common stock
Our verdict on Rigetti Computing, Inc. - Common stock isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
R&D expenses increased significantly, rising 22% year-over-year for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, driven by personnel costs and stock-based compensation. (1 exceeded across 1 tracked commitment)
“Research and development 2025: 43,997 2024: 36,093 $ Change: 7,904 % Change: 22 %”
The company continues to report substantial net losses, which have widened significantly due to non-cash changes in the fair value of warrant liabilities. (1 met across 1 tracked commitment)
“We expect to continue to incur additional losses for the foreseeable future as we invest in research, development, and infrastructure consistent with our long-term business strategy.”
See the full cited Management analysis of Rigetti Computing, Inc. - Common stock
How durable is the business?
The technological moat is expanding through a new strategic collaboration with Quanta Computer, involving a mutual $250 million investment commitment to accelerate the quantum hardware roadmap. (4 expanding)
“the parties have each agreed to invest at least $250.0 million over the next five years in the field of quantum computing”
The company significantly strengthened its cash position through a massive $350 million At-The-Market (ATM) offering and a $35 million private placement with Quanta Computer, more than doubling its total assets. (3 expanding, 1 stable)
“Total assets $ 636,690 $ 284,787... The net proceeds from the Sales Agreement during the three months ended June 30, 2025 were $346.7 million”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Rigetti Computing, Inc. - Common stock
Where does growth come from?
The company is successfully transitioning to a hardware-sale model, with revenue from sales of quantum computers and materials growing 38% for the first half of 2024 compared to 2023. (2 accelerating, 1 new trend across 3 signals)
“Revenue increased by $2.9 million for the three months ended March 31, 2026, when compared to the three months ended March 31, 2025, respectively. The increase was mainly due to higher sales of 9-qubit Novera™ quantum computing systems and related products.”
The company is successfully transitioning its revenue mix toward hardware sales (QPUs) and development contracts, which grew to offset an $1.8 million decline in cloud-based services (QCaaS) over the nine-month period. (4 new trend across 4 signals, 1 leading indicator)
“In April 2026, Rigetti announced the general availability of its 108-qubit quantum computing system, Cepheus™-1-108Q, with the system being accessible to customers and partners via the Rigetti Quantum Cloud Services (QCS®) Platform and through Amazon Braket... The system is also now available on Microsoft Azure Quantum and qBraid.”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Rigetti Computing, Inc. - Common stock
What could break the thesis?
R&D costs are intensifying, rising 24% year-over-year for the six-month period. This is driven by higher salaries, new hires, and stock-based compensation, which management expects to continue increasing. (5 intensifying, 1 high-severity)
“We have incurred significant operating losses since inception... We expect to continue to incur additional losses for the foreseeable future... As of March 31, 2026, we had an accumulated deficit of $737.8 million.”
Dependence on government revenue has intensified significantly. Sales to government entities reached 90.7% of total revenue for the first half of 2025, compared to 88.4% in the prior year. Revenue is also being hurt by the expiration of the National Quantum Initiative Act. (5 intensifying, 3 high-severity)
“Significant customers that represent 10% or more of revenue are set forth in the following table: Customer A 54%... Customer B 15%... Customer D 12%... [and] Customer C * 14% [in 2025].”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Rigetti Computing, Inc. - Common stock
Read the full thesis on Rigetti Computing, Inc. - Common stock
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