Rigetti Computing, Inc. - Common stock

R&D expenses increased significantly, rising 22% year-over-year for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, driven by personnel costs and stock-based compensation. (1 exceeded across 1 tracked commitment)

The company continues to report substantial net losses, which have widened significantly due to non-cash changes in the fair value of warrant liabilities. (1 met across 1 tracked commitment)

The collaboration is active; the private placement transaction with Quanta closed on April 29, 2025, providing $35.0 million in proceeds. The long-term investment commitment of $250 million is ongoing. (1 in progress, 1 exceeded across 2 tracked commitments)

Management successfully achieved the mid-year performance milestone by announcing the 36-qubit Cepheus system on July 16, 2025, which demonstrated the targeted 2x reduction in error rates. (3 met, 1 in progress, 1 revised across 5 tracked commitments)

The aggregate transaction price allocated to remaining performance obligations has decreased significantly to $2.8 million as of March 31, 2026, compared to the $5.5 million previously expected. Only $2.0 million is now expected to be recognized in the next 12 months. (1 revised across 1 tracked commitment)

The technological moat is expanding through a new strategic collaboration with Quanta Computer, involving a mutual $250 million investment commitment to accelerate the quantum hardware roadmap. (4 expanding)

The company significantly strengthened its cash position through a massive $350 million At-The-Market (ATM) offering and a $35 million private placement with Quanta Computer, more than doubling its total assets. (3 expanding, 1 stable)

Revenue from development contracts and professional services saw a sharp decline, falling 48.6% year-over-year. Management attributed this to the expiration of the National Quantum Initiative Act and delays in its reauthorization by Congress. (1 contracting, 1 expanding)

Revenue from QCaaS (Quantum Computing as a Service) expanded by 15.7% YoY, showing growth in cloud-based access despite the overall decline in total company revenue. (2 expanding, 3 contracting across 1 engine)

QCaaS revenue remains a negligible portion of the business (approx. 7% of total revenue) and is essentially flat compared to the prior year's six-month period, failing to show the growth expected from a cloud transition. (1 stable, 2 contracting across 1 engine)

The company is successfully transitioning to a hardware-sale model, with revenue from sales of quantum computers and materials growing 38% for the first half of 2024 compared to 2023. (2 accelerating, 1 new trend across 3 signals)

The company is successfully transitioning its revenue mix toward hardware sales (QPUs) and development contracts, which grew to offset an $1.8 million decline in cloud-based services (QCaaS) over the nine-month period. (4 new trend across 4 signals, 1 leading indicator)

Revenue growth is accelerating sharply, jumping from $1.47 million to $4.4 million year-over-year, a 199% increase driven by hardware sales. (1 accelerating, 2 reversing, 2 decelerating across 5 signals)

The company remains heavily dependent on the public sector, with government sales increasing as a percentage of total revenue to 88.4% for the first half of 2024, up from 78.1% in the prior year. (3 steady, 1 reversing across 4 signals)

The trend of commercial diversification has reversed in the short term. Government entities now account for 97.4% of total revenue, up from 82.1% in the prior year, indicating a heavy reliance on public sector contracts for current growth. (2 reversing, 1 new trend, 1 accelerating across 4 signals, 1 leading indicator)

R&D costs are intensifying, rising 24% year-over-year for the six-month period. This is driven by higher salaries, new hires, and stock-based compensation, which management expects to continue increasing. (5 intensifying, 1 high-severity)

Dependence on government revenue has intensified significantly. Sales to government entities reached 90.7% of total revenue for the first half of 2025, compared to 88.4% in the prior year. Revenue is also being hurt by the expiration of the National Quantum Initiative Act. (5 intensifying, 3 high-severity)

The risk is stable as the commitment is now active. Rigetti is legally required to invest at least $250 million over five years starting February 2025, which represents a significant capital expenditure requirement relative to current revenue. (1 stable, 2 intensifying)

Execution risk remains high as the company announced another upcoming roadmap update in April 2026, following a history of changes in 2018, 2022, 2023, and 2025. (1 stable)

Concentration remains extremely high and has intensified for the top customer. Customer D now accounts for 53% of revenue for the first half of 2025, up from 27% in the prior year period. The top four customers combined represent 85% of revenue. (1 intensifying)