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TeraWulf Inc. - Common Stock
Our verdict on TeraWulf Inc. - Common Stock isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
Management successfully achieved the CB-1 and CB-3 earnout milestones and the Project Financing Closing milestone during the third quarter of 2025. (2 met across 2 tracked commitments)
“The purchase agreement also includes up to $19.0 million in contingent cash payments and up to $13.0 million in additional Common Stock, subject to the achievement of several earnout milestones related to the expansion of the Company’s data center business and project financing initiative”
The notes are outstanding with a principal balance of $500.0 million and an effective interest rate of 0.5% after accounting for issuance costs. (3 met across 3 tracked commitments)
“The Company further agreed to form an eligible employee trust... and to fund the trust annually with an amount equal to 2% of the Company’s annual capital expenditures, calculated in accordance with U.S. GAAP, for the development and build out the Company’s HPC data centers.”
See the full cited Management analysis of TeraWulf Inc. - Common Stock
How durable is the business?
Contract quality and switching costs were significantly strengthened by a new 'Google Backstop' agreement, where Google guarantees the rent for the Fluidstack lease, providing investment-grade credit support for the project. (3 expanding)
“These hosting arrangements are typically structured as long-term data center leases, generally ranging from 10 to 25 years, and in certain cases benefit from investment-grade credit support, enhancing the durability and finance ability of contracted revenues.”
The company vertically integrated its workforce by acquiring Beowulf E&D, bringing 94 employees with power generation expertise in-house to support long-term HPC growth. (3 expanding)
“The Company’s platform is differentiated by long-term control of utility-scale infrastructure, deep in-house power and grid expertise, and a scalable development model supported by long-term, credit-enhanced customer contracts.”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of TeraWulf Inc. - Common Stock
Where does growth come from?
Capacity expansion is accelerating as the company moves from proof-of-concept to large-scale construction. The Lake Mariner site is currently operating 195 MW for mining but is actively building 50 MW for mining and 20 MW for HPC (CB-1) due in Q1 2025, with a 50 MW (CB-2) following in Q2 2025. (4 accelerating, 1 steady across 5 signals, 1 leading indicator)
“As of March 31, 2026, the Lake Mariner Data Campus operated 145 MW of legacy bitcoin mining capacity and had 60 MW of critical IT HPC capacity. The campus is undergoing phased expansion to support additional HPC contracted deployments with gross capacity of approximately 500 MW in the near term, and with potential expansion to approximately 750 MW.”
The company has accelerated its expansion at the Nautilus facility by exercising an option to increase its energy requirement by 50 MW, bringing its total attributable capacity at that site to 100 MW. (1 accelerating, 1 new trend across 2 signals, 1 leading indicator)
“Upon completion of permitting and site development, the Cayuga Site has the potential for up to 400 MW of gross capacity, supporting approximately 320 MW of critical IT load. The Cayuga Site provides an additional anchor location.”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of TeraWulf Inc. - Common Stock
What could break the thesis?
The company's expansion depends on getting approvals to use massive amounts of electricity from the power grid, which is not guaranteed. [EXECUTION]
“with potential expansion to approximately 750 MW, subject to additional approvals from the NYISO.”
Capital expenditures remain high as the company builds out the Lake Mariner facility for HPC. Investing cash outflow increased to $132.1 million for the first half of 2025 compared to $93.6 million in 2024. (3 intensifying, 1 high-severity)
“Purchase of and deposits on plant and equipment (522,954)”
See the full cited Risk analysis of TeraWulf Inc. - Common Stock
Read the full thesis on TeraWulf Inc. - Common Stock
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