Alpex Solar

Nine-month FY26 revenue already reached Rs. 1,551 crore, exceeding the full-year Rs. 1,500 crore guidance before Q4. Management further indicated FY26 revenue would be more than Rs. 3,000 crore under its 2x framework. (3 exceeded, 2 in progress across 5 tracked commitments)

FY26 revenue substantially exceeded the Rs. 1,500 crore guidance, reaching Rs. 2,223.27 crore. (1 exceeded, 3 met, 1 revised across 5 tracked commitments)

The target has not yet been achieved. Q3 FY26 EBITDA margin was 14.03%, and management only stated that margins should expand rapidly once cell manufacturing starts. The cell line was expected to start around Q1 FY27. (4 in progress across 4 tracked commitments)

Funding for the broader cell project was clarified as a mix of internal accruals and term debt. Of the Rs. 825 crore total project cost, Rs. 425 crore was to come from internal accruals and Rs. 400 crore from debt, materially larger than the previously indicated small-loan framework. (1 revised across 1 tracked commitment)

Module manufacturing remained the core business, but management described the business as expanding sharply in volume. H1 FY26 business volume was stated to be approximately 270%-300% higher, while module capacity was being expanded by 1.2 GW and another 1.2 GW was planned. Compared with the Aug 2026 baseline, modules remain the primary revenue stream, although competition is creating margin pressure. (5 expanding across 1 engine)

The broader solar EPC business was an expansion initiative in the Nov 2025 presentation, with planned capacity of 150 MW: 35 MW by FY26 and 115 MW by FY27. The baseline later reports an active 115 MW EPC installation target, indicating that the planned EPC platform remained a growth area. However, the presentation did not provide actual EPC revenue or revenue share separately from solar-pump EPC. (5 expanding)

The company's integration moat strengthened materially. In Nov 2025, Alpex was moving from module manufacturing toward cells, aluminium frames, EPC and joint ventures for junction boxes. By Aug 2026, the baseline describes module, planned cell and aluminium-frame operations as an established integration strategy, with the advantage strengthening as facilities are commissioned. (5 expanding across 4 engines)

The module business was still the core engine in H1 FY26 and grew substantially year over year. Consolidated revenue rose from Rs. 265.12 crore in H1 FY25 to Rs. 903.24 crore in H1 FY26, while EBITDA margin improved from 13.67% to 16.01%. This indicates both strong volume/revenue growth and better operating profitability, although the later baseline notes that the module market is becoming more competitive. (1 expanding, 3 new, 1 shifted across 1 engine)

Solar water-pump systems expanded from Rs.118.70 crore in FY25 to Rs.214.53 crore in FY26. This stream remained meaningful but its share of standalone operating revenue fell from 15.2% to 9.7% because module revenue grew much faster. The business has a proven rural base of more than 26,000 installations. (1 shifted, 1 stable)

Module capacity is expanding in clear, staged increments: 1.2 GW capacity was established by FY23-25, 2.4 GW is targeted for FY26 and 3.6 GW by FY27. This represents a 3x increase from the 1.2 GW base over roughly two years. The latest planned step-up remains positive and indicates accelerating capacity creation. (5 accelerating across 5 signals, 1 leading indicator)

The presentation does not disclose a 35–40% cell-business EBITDA margin, 20–25% PAT margin, or Q1 FY27 company margins. Instead, it reports consolidated Q1 FY26 EBITDA margin of 17.1% and PAT margin of 11.1%, up from 5.6% and 1.4% in Q1 FY25. The latest reported margins therefore show a sharp improvement, but there is no cell-specific margin series. (2 accelerating, 3 new trend across 5 signals)

Management's revenue ambition is accelerating from the current-year base toward a much larger integrated business. The company expects FY26 revenue to exceed Rs. 1,500 crore by a reasonable margin and says the next year's growth could again be approximately 2x, implying a potential FY27 revenue level around Rs. 3,200 crore based on the original Rs. 780 crore base. However, the specific Rs. 4,000 crore full-capacity estimate is not stated in this transcript, so it should be treated as an external prior estimate rather than a newly confirmed data point here. (1 accelerating, 4 new trend across 5 signals)

The Kusum business shows a strong year-on-year expansion plan: revenue increased from Rs. 223 Cr last year to a FY27 target of Rs. 500 Cr, while Rs. 350 Cr of orders are already being executed. The latest order position provides improving visibility, although actual FY27 revenue is not yet reported. (1 accelerating across 1 signal)

In the older November 2025 period, management said ALMM List 2 was expected to become effective from June 2026 and would require module makers to use locally produced cells. This made the regulatory support important to the company's demand outlook. Compared with the August 2026 baseline, where the implementation was still described as expected only by end-2026, the policy timeline appears to have become less certain or later. Therefore, regulatory dependence has worsened. (5 intensifying, 5 high-severity)

Management projected blended company EBITDA margins above 29%-30% after cell production begins, compared with current module EBITDA margins of about 15%-16%. It also claimed TOPCon could provide roughly 2% higher profit at the PAT level than mono-PERC. These are forward estimates without demonstrated Alpex cell operating results, so the risk was already high. The August 2026 baseline still relied on estimated cell EBITDA margins of 35%-40%, meaning the margin promise remained unproven rather than being de-risked. (2 stable, 2 high-severity)