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Supreme Power
Our verdict on Supreme Power isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
Management has successfully shifted the revenue mix, with 'Others' (Private) accounting for 73.65% of FY25 revenue, effectively reducing government dependency. (1 met across 1 tracked commitment)
“Yes, we are expecting the same, but we want to restrict below 50% -- the government exposure below 50%.”
Management has revised the execution expectation for the now-larger order book (INR 235 Cr) to 50-60% for the current financial year. (1 revised, 1 met, 1 in progress across 3 tracked commitments)
“Vee Rajmohan: Yes, definitely. I think we should cross INR200 crores.”
See the full cited Management analysis of Supreme Power
How durable is the business?
The company is actively expanding its footprint in Kerala, having secured L1 status (lowest bidder) for significant orders from the Kerala State Electricity Board (KSEB). (5 expanding)
“Kerala Electricity Board we are targeting... we have been approved in KSEB, Kerala State Electricity Board. And we have posted so many tenders and one tender it has opened and we were L1 on that for supply of 25 MVA.”
The new manufacturing facility is 70% complete and expected to be fully operational by December 2025, which will significantly boost revenue capacity to INR 500 crores. (5 expanding)
“Yes, before this December 2025, the full capex will complete 100%... And the top revenue of fully utilized plant will be around INR500 crores.”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Supreme Power
Where does growth come from?
The company's total revenue capacity across both plants could reach as high as INR 700 crores once fully utilized, providing a long-term growth ceiling.
“See the new plant, the capacity -- full capacity, I think it can fetch up to INR600 crores to INR650 crores in the new plant. And here, we can go up to INR100 crores to INR110 crores in the existing plant. Yes. So all put together, maximum INR700 crores, we can go.”
The order book shows significant acceleration, growing from ₹116 Cr (consolidated) to ₹167.67 Cr in just two months, driven by a massive ₹51 Cr intake in Q4 FY25 alone. (5 accelerating across 5 signals, 4 leading indicators)
“SPEL is undergoing a transformative expansion to develop a state-of-the-art facility... Current Capacity: 2,500 MVA/year New Capacity: 9,000 MVA/year (increase of 6,500 MVA)... Investment: ₹95–100 Cr... Timeline: Operational by Approx Q4 FY26”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Supreme Power
What could break the thesis?
The risk is intensifying as management explicitly stated the current workforce is insufficient for the upcoming capacity expansion. (5 intensifying, 2 high-severity)
“Top 10 Customers 94.91 [Cr] ... 65.55% [of revenue]”
The risk is intensifying slightly in the short term as management guides for a 1% to 1.5% drop in margins due to increased overheads and workforce expansion following the capex. (5 intensifying, 1 high-severity)
“Raw Material Expenses Q3 FY26 27.35 Q3 FY25 23.56”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Supreme Power
Read the full thesis on Supreme Power
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