JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Stock Analysis

The Q4 2025 Card Services net charge-off rate was 3.34%, effectively in line with the approximately 3.3% guidance and within the specified roughly 5% tolerance. (1 met across 1 tracked commitment)

Fourth-quarter 2025 NII was $24.1 billion, about 3.6% below the approximately $25 billion target. NII excluding Markets was $23.0 billion, about 2.1% below the approximately $23.5 billion target. Both shortfalls are within the stated ~5% tolerance, so delivery is assessed as met within tolerance. (1 missed, 4 met across 5 tracked commitments)

The Board declared a $1.50-per-share quarterly common dividend, up from $1.40, payable October 31, 2025. The reported third-quarter dividend declared was $1.50 per share, meeting the stated target. (2 met, 2 in progress across 4 tracked commitments)

The filing confirms the forward purchase commitment remains in place and continues to state an expected closing approximately 24 months after December 30, 2025. Closing is not yet due; the report provides no evidence that the transaction has closed or that the timeline has changed. (1 in progress across 1 tracked commitment)

The filing confirms that JPMorganChase submitted its 2026 Capital Plan to the Federal Reserve on April 6, 2026, but does not report the Federal Reserve's summary stress-test results. The document therefore provides no concrete evidence that the expected disclosure occurred by June 30. (1 not yet due across 1 tracked commitment)

CIB North American revenue was $13.624 billion in Q1 2026, about 58.3% of CIB revenue, up 14% year over year from $11.960 billion. Its share of CIB revenue edged down from about 60.8% as international CIB revenue grew faster. (2 expanding)

The distribution moat expanded on reported digital-use measures: CCB active digital customers grew from 74.041 million in Q3 2025 to 76.706 million in Q2 2026, about 3.6%, while active mobile customers grew from 60.924 million to 63.746 million, about 4.6%. Branches also increased from 5,018 to 5,135, about 2.3%. This supports broader customer reach, though the filing does not quantify a resulting cost or retention advantage. (1 expanding)

CIB revenue increased from $19.878 billion in Q3 2025 to $24.853 billion in Q2 2026, up approximately 25.0%. Its firmwide revenue share also expanded, from about 42.2% to 43.4%. Q3 2025 already showed 17% year-over-year growth, led by Markets and investment banking; the later baseline reports 27% year-over-year growth. (5 expanding)

The deposit base expanded from $2.548 trillion at September 30, 2025 to $2.714 trillion at June 30, 2026, about 6.5%, while the loans-to-deposits ratio moved from 56% to 57%. Q3 2025 average total deposits cost 1.83%; U.S. noninterest-bearing deposits averaged $577.1 billion, while U.S. interest-bearing demand and savings averaged $1.206 trillion. The later baseline also describes a large U.S. low-cost deposit base but does not provide a directly comparable firmwide deposit beta, so a deposit-beta change cannot be measured from these disclosures. (5 expanding)

The FY2025 filing reports $47.930 billion of CIB revenue in North America and $30.524 billion internationally. North America represented 61.1% of CIB revenue. The baseline's Q2 2026 split is 57.0% North America, a 4.1 percentage-point reduction in share; however, periods and regional definitions are not identical, so this is a directional comparison rather than a strict like-for-like change. (1 contracting, 1 expanding)

The firm is growing in international consumer banking, including the launch of Chase Europe in Germany in May 2026. New-account growth helped deposits in Corporate rise to $59.4 billion from $28.0 billion a year earlier. The filing does not give customer counts or a revenue target for the expansion. — International consumer deposits: +113% YoY

Interest income growth has slowed: reported net interest income increased 9% year over year in 1Q26, compared with the previously extracted 10% in Q2; excluding Markets, growth eased from 4% to 3%. The full-year forecast also moved lower, from approximately $105.5 billion in the earlier extraction to approximately $103 billion in the current filing. The measures remain positive, but the slowdown and lower outlook indicate deceleration. (1 decelerating across 1 signal)

Capital rules could restrain how quickly JPMorgan grows its balance sheet or returns capital. The bank reported a 14.2% CET1 capital ratio, versus an 11.5% regulatory requirement; management estimates the proposed combined U.S. capital changes would raise required CET1 capital by about 4% compared with requirements expected under current rules from 2028.

The supplied analyst-estimate page shows forecast sales growth slowing from 14.11% to 4.14% across the displayed annual estimate periods, which could signal a tougher pace for JPMorgan’s overall growth than recent reported results. The extract does not identify the periods clearly enough to treat this as a precise company forecast or a firm catalyst.

Reported net interest income growth slowed from 10% in the earlier signal to 1% in Q1 2025. Excluding Markets, the comparable measure declined 2% year over year, versus 4% growth in the earlier signal. Management expects approximately $94.5 billion of full-year 2025 NII, with approximately $90.0 billion excluding Markets; both are market dependent. The direction has reversed for the underlying measure excluding Markets. (1 reversing, 1 decelerating across 2 signals)

The reserve increased from $26.866 billion at year-end 2024 to $29.089 billion in Q3 2025, with a $2.2 billion net addition over the nine-month period. Management’s downside scenario sensitivity remains material: modeled losses rise by about $3.8 billion for credit cards and $5.2 billion for wholesale loans and commitments versus the central scenario. The additional reserve and stress scenario weighting indicate active protection, while the larger reserve and downside sensitivity leave meaningful forecast risk. No comparable June 2026 reserve figure is provided here for an older-to-baseline comparison. (5 intensifying, 2 high-severity)

In FY2025, net interest income excluding Markets was $92.6 billion, essentially flat year over year, while net yield excluding Markets declined from 3.84% to 3.75%. The filing attributes margin pressure to deposit margin compression and lower rates. The later baseline reports net yield excluding Markets of 3.65%, down from 3.71% a year earlier, while NII excluding Markets increased 4% year over year in Q2. The yield measure continued to decline, but NII growth is a countervailing factor; overall trajectory INTENSIFYING for margin pressure, with mixed revenue support. (2 intensifying)

Standardized CET1 fell to 14.8% in Q3 2025 from 15.7% at year-end 2024, while risk-weighted assets grew about $178 billion over the first nine months. The ratio remained above the then-applicable 12.3% requirement, but the cushion narrowed. The filing also describes proposed Federal Reserve, OCC, and FDIC leverage-rule changes and a lower stress-capital-buffer requirement of 2.5%, affirmed by the Federal Reserve in August 2025. The later baseline reports CET1 of 14.2% in June 2026, confirming further decline; overall capital pressure is intensifying even though the stated requirement change in this filing was favorable. (4 intensifying)

The 2025 filing estimated approximately $104 billion of total credit exposure at expected closing, including about $23 billion of drawn loans, and recorded a $2.2 billion allowance for the transaction. The later baseline estimates approximately $106 billion of commitments, including approximately $24 billion included in portfolio-based commitments, and still expects closing about two years after the December 2025 commitment. Exposure estimates have risen modestly and the acquisition remains pending, so the risk is INTENSIFYING modestly; no evidence in the baseline indicates the transaction has closed. (2 intensifying, 1 stable)

The Q3 2025 filing shows that a 100-basis-point parallel rate increase was estimated to add $1.8 billion to 12-month earnings, while a 100-basis-point decline was estimated to reduce earnings by $2.2 billion. The later baseline estimates a $2.4 billion reduction for a 100-basis-point cut, indicating greater modeled downside to falling rates. The risk is therefore intensifying on the comparable falling-rate sensitivity, despite hedge activity. (2 intensifying, 2 easing)