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Centrus Energy Corp. Class A Common Stock
Our verdict on Centrus Energy Corp. Class A Common Stock isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
The IRS granted the $62.4 million credit allocation on January 10, 2025. The company is now in the two-year window to provide evidence of meeting requirements to certify the allocation. (2 in progress across 2 tracked commitments)
“The Company expects that we will be able to monetize all credit allocations received from §48C by transferring them to unrelated taxpayers for cash.”
The fee for the extended Phase 2 period (beyond Nov 2024) remains undefinitized and subject to negotiation as of June 30, 2025. (2 in progress, 1 revised across 3 tracked commitments)
“Costs incurred subsequent to the extension have not yet been subject to a fee, but Centrus expects the fee to be recovered later this year once the extension is definitized.”
The company is exploring a joint venture with Oklo Inc. for HALEU deconversion services in Piketon, Ohio.
“In March 2026, Centrus announced that the Company is exploring a joint venture with Oklo Inc. (“Oklo”) focused on deconversion services for HALEU – which currently does not exist commercially.”
The Company expects to monetize all credit allocations received from the §48C program by transferring them for cash. — target: $62.4 million (+1 more commitment)
“The Company expects that we will be able to monetize all credit allocations received from §48C by transferring them to unrelated taxpayers for cash. ... On January 10, 2025, the Company was informed that the IRS granted our request for a $62.4 million credit allocation for this facility.”
Management expects to increase capital expenditures by several hundred million dollars to support Manufacturing Readiness and Ohio expansion plans. — target: several hundred million (+2 more commitments)
“We expect to increase our capital expenditures by approximately several hundred million, driven by ongoing investments and a strategic shift towards our Manufacturing Readiness plan and Ohio expansion.”
See the full cited Management analysis of Centrus Energy Corp. Class A Common Stock
How durable is the business?
The regulatory moat is expanding as Centrus achieved the Phase 2 production target of 900kg of HALEU and secured a $62.4 million tax credit allocation under the 48C program for its Tennessee facility. However, new risks have emerged via the Import Ban Act and Russian Decree, which threaten the supply of Russian LEU that currently accounts for over half of the company's expected deliveries through 2027. (3 expanding)
“This strategic move enables the Company to capitalize on its many first-mover advantages in U.S.-owned domestic uranium enrichment... Centrus plans to leverage its multi-billion-dollar uranium enrichment expansion to meet its growing backlog of $2.4 billion in contingent LEU sales.”
The LEU segment revenue share increased to 81% of total revenue for the quarter, up from 58% in the prior period. While total segment revenue decreased 26% year-over-year due to lower volumes, gross margins expanded significantly to 40.3% from 19.5% in the prior year quarter due to a favorable mix of contracts and a 24% increase in the average price of SWU sold. (2 expanding, 1 contracting)
“Revenue from our LEU segment accounted for approximately 81% and 78% of our total revenue for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025, respectively.”
Revenue share for Technical Solutions contracted to 19% of total revenue from 42% previously. However, absolute revenue grew 48% year-over-year to $28.8 million, driven by a $9.1 million increase from the HALEU Operation Contract. Gross profit for the segment declined slightly as costs incurred under the extended Phase 2 performance period remain undefinitized and subject to negotiation. (1 contracting, 2 expanding across 2 engines)
“Revenue from the LEU segment was $44.6 million and $51.3 million for the three months ended March 31, 2026 and 2025, respectively, a decrease of $6.7 million (or 13%)... Revenue from our LEU segment accounted for approximately 58% of our total revenue for the three months ended March 31, 2026.”
The geographic mix has shifted from 100% domestic to include significant international exposure. International sales now constitute approximately 37% of LEU segment revenue since 2023. For the six months ended June 30, 2025, foreign revenue reached $68.5 million, representing 30% of total company revenue. (3 shifted)
“In the three months ended March 31, 2026, three customers in the LEU segment individually represented $18.5 million, $14.2 million, and $8.8 million of revenue, respectively. One customer in the Technical Solutions segment individually represented $31.5 million of revenue.”
Centrus Energy Corp. is a supplier of nuclear fuel components and services, primarily selling enriched uranium to commercial utilities and providing advanced technical services to the U.S. government.
“Centrus Energy Corp... is a trusted supplier of nuclear fuel components for the nuclear power industry... Centrus operates two business segments: (a) LEU, which supplies various components of nuclear fuel to commercial customers from our global network of suppliers, and (b) Technical Solutions, which provides advanced uranium enrichment for the nuclear industry and the U.S. government and advanced manufacturing and other technical services to government and private sector customers.”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Centrus Energy Corp. Class A Common Stock
Where does growth come from?
Centrus is accelerating its capacity building by investing $60 million over 18 months to resume centrifuge manufacturing in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, specifically to support large-scale expansion in Piketon, Ohio. (4 accelerating, 1 steady across 5 signals, 2 leading indicators)
“In January 2025, the Company announced plans to invest more than $560 million over several years to transition its Oak Ridge centrifuge manufacturing plant to high-rate manufacturing and support the production of thousands of advanced centrifuges.”
Revenue from the Technical Solutions segment, driven by the HALEU Operation Contract, saw a massive 148% year-over-year increase as the project transitioned to Phase 2. (5 accelerating across 5 signals)
“On January 5, 2026, the DOE announced that Centrus subsidiary, ACO, was awarded a $900.0 million task order to expand its uranium enrichment facility in Piketon, Ohio, to include commercial-scale production of HALEU.”
The HALEU production initiative is accelerating with the transition to Phase 2 and increased funding. The DOE increased the Phase 2 contract value to $152.3 million, up from an initial $90 million estimate. (1 accelerating across 1 signal)
“The Company’s backlog is $3.9 billion and $3.8 billion as of March 31, 2026 and December 31, 2025, respectively, and extends to 2040.”
This is a new trend providing a significant margin lever; the IRS granted a $62.4 million credit allocation in January 2025, which the company intends to monetize for cash. (2 new trend across 2 signals)
“On January 10, 2025, the Company was informed that the Internal Revenue Service (“IRS”) granted our request for a $62.4 million credit allocation for this facility.”
Centrus is adopting Artificial Intelligence through a partnership with Palantir to optimize its manufacturing and supply chain as it scales up its enrichment plants.
“In March 2026, Centrus announced a partnership with Palantir to apply Palantir’s artificial intelligence (“AI”)-driven software tools in support of the American Centrifuge Plant expansion.”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Centrus Energy Corp. Class A Common Stock
What could break the thesis?
Concentration remains extreme; in the first half of 2025, a single Technical Solutions customer (DOE) accounted for $49.6 million in revenue, and three LEU customers represented the bulk of that segment's sales. (2 stable, 1 easing, 1 high-severity)
“In the three months ended March 31, 2026, three customers in the LEU segment individually represented $18.5 million, $14.2 million, and $8.8 million of revenue, respectively. One customer in the Technical Solutions segment individually represented $31.5 million of revenue.”
The balance sheet risk has eased significantly as the company redeemed all $74.3 million of its 8.25% Notes in March 2025, leaving only the 2.25% Convertible Notes (due 2030) outstanding. (1 easing, 2 intensifying)
“The principal amounts of our long-term debt consists of the following (in millions): 2030 2.25% $402.5; 2032 0% $805.0; Total $1,207.5”
The risk is stable as data continues to show significant increases in Chinese imports, which could pressure prices and market share for domestic producers. (1 stable)
“Recent data from the International Trade Commission shows a significant increase in the importation of enriched uranium into the U.S. from China beginning in 2023. If this trend continues, it will likely result in significant changes in the competitive landscape.”
This is an emerging risk as the company officially announced the partnership in March 2026 to optimize project controls and manufacturing. (1 emerging)
“Flaws, biases, errors, misconfigurations or malfunctions in AI-driven systems could result in operational disruptions... including data loss, corruption or the generation of outputs that appear correct but are inaccurate or misleading.”
A new risk has emerged via Executive Order 14154, which directed a pause on the distribution of federal funding, including IRA funds that support HALEU production. (1 intensifying)
“Executive Order 14154... directed executive agencies of the U.S. federal government to pause the distribution of federal funding, including funding appropriated under the IRA... Should the pause continue to be implemented, the timing... remain uncertain.”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Centrus Energy Corp. Class A Common Stock
Centrus Energy Corp. Class A Common Stock analysis by filing period
Read the full thesis on Centrus Energy Corp. Class A Common Stock
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