AI-generated · cited to primary sources · not investment advice · How we research
Our verdict on Cloudflare, Inc. Class A Common Stock isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Liquidity position significantly strengthened following the issuance of $2.0 billion in convertible notes, increasing total cash and available-for-sale securities to nearly $4.0 billion. (1 exceeded, 2 met across 3 tracked commitments)
“We believe that our existing cash, cash equivalents, available-for-sale securities, and available capacity under the Revolving Credit Facility will be sufficient to meet our working capital and capital expenditure needs for at least the next 12 months.”
The 2025 Capped Calls were successfully settled in May 2025, resulting in a significant cash inflow. (3 met, 1 in progress across 4 tracked commitments)
“We expect the 2025 Capped Calls to settle in May 2025.”
Management maintained the target of recognizing 66% of RPO over the next 12 months, consistent with the prior quarter's guidance. (1 met, 2 revised across 3 tracked commitments)
“As of June 30, 2025, the Company expected to recognize 66% of its remaining performance obligations as revenue over the next 12 months with the remainder recognized thereafter.”
The company continues to report GAAP operating losses ($37.5M for Q3) and expects this trend to persist as it prioritizes strategic investments over short-term profitability. (2 in progress across 2 tracked commitments)
“The Company currently estimates that it will incur charges of between $140 million and $150 million in connection with the Plan, consisting primarily of cash expenditures for notice period, severance payments, employee benefits and related costs of between $105 million and $110 million and non-cash expenses related to vesting of share-based awards of between $35 million and $40 million.”
Cloudflare continues to invest in its network, specifically highlighting the addition of GPUs to support AI-related developer platform products. (1 in progress across 1 tracked commitment)
“We intend to continue to make substantial investments in our global network infrastructure to support the growth of our business, including the addition of servers with storage capabilities to support our storage and database products and servers with graphics processing units (GPUs) to support our AI-related developer platform products.”
See the full cited Management analysis of Cloudflare, Inc. Class A Common Stock
The moat is being reinforced by platform consolidation; dollar-based net retention improved to 114%, showing existing customers are integrating more deeply into the 'unified control plane'. (2 expanding)
“Our dollar-based net retention rates were 114% and 112% for the three months ended June 30, 2025 and June 30, 2024, respectively.”
The moat is strengthening through platform consolidation as customers increasingly adopt multiple products across security, performance, and reliability suites. (1 expanding)
“Our dollar-based net retention rates were 120%, 111%, and 115% for the three months ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively.”
The network effect moat is being actively strengthened through a strategic shift to an 'agentic AI-first' model, leveraging the massive data from the free customer base to train AI models. (1 expanding)
“These free customers expose us to diverse traffic, threats, and problems, often allowing us to see potential security, performance, and reliability issues at the earliest stage. This knowledge allows us to improve our products and deliver more effective solutions to our paying customers.”
Channel partners are expanding their share of the revenue mix, growing from 19% to 25% of total revenue, indicating successful leverage of resellers and system integrators. (4 expanding, 1 contracting across 1 engine)
“Channel partners $ 192,960 [representing] 30 % [of revenue]”
Direct customer revenue share has contracted from 81% to 75% of total revenue, despite absolute dollar growth, as the company shifts more volume toward channel partners. (3 contracting, 2 expanding across 1 engine)
“Direct customers $ 446,795 [representing] 70 % [of revenue]”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Cloudflare, Inc. Class A Common Stock
Revenue from channel partners (third-party resellers) is accelerating as a percentage of total revenue, growing from 14% to 19% of the total mix. This indicates a successful shift toward a partner-led sales model to reach more customers efficiently. (5 accelerating across 5 signals)
“Channel partners [Revenue] $192,960 [30% of revenue in 2026] ... $112,555 [23% of revenue in 2025]”
Cloudflare is maintaining a steady expansion of its global network infrastructure, now reaching over 330 cities, with a specific focus on adding GPU capabilities for AI workloads. (3 steady across 3 signals, 1 leading indicator)
“We intend to continue to make substantial investments in our global network infrastructure... including the addition of... servers with graphics processing units (GPUs) to support our AI-related developer platform products.”
Cloudflare acquired Replicate to integrate its AI platform, which helps developers run and deploy AI models more easily on the Cloudflare network.
“On December 1, 2025, the Company acquired all of the outstanding shares of Replicate, a company that has developed an artificial intelligence (AI) platform that enables developers to deploy and run AI models”
The net retention rate, which measures how much existing customers increase their spending, is showing a slight acceleration compared to the previous year, indicating strong platform stickiness. (3 accelerating, 2 decelerating across 5 signals)
“Our dollar-based net retention rates were 118% and 111% for the three months ended March 31, 2026 and March 31, 2025, respectively.”
Cloudflare is showing steady growth in its large enterprise customer base, which is a key indicator of its ability to penetrate high-value accounts. The number of customers spending over $100,000 annually grew by 33.5% year-over-year. (5 steady across 5 signals)
“Paying customers (> $100,000 Annualized Revenue) ... 4,416 [as of March 31, 2026] ... 3,527 [as of March 31, 2025]”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Cloudflare, Inc. Class A Common Stock
Regulatory risk is intensifying with the implementation of new frameworks like the EU's NIS2 and Digital Operational Resiliency Act (effective January 2025). Additionally, the U.S. enacted the PADFA and a new DOJ final rule in April 2025 restricting data transfers to 'countries of concern,' increasing compliance complexity. (5 intensifying)
“the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) imposes stringent data protection requirements and provides for penalties for noncompliance of up to the greater of €20 million or four percent of worldwide annual revenues.”
The company faces intense competition from massive public cloud providers and specialized security vendors. These competitors often have much larger budgets and can bundle products for free or at a loss to steal market share. [COMPETITIVE]
“Our potential competitors include large companies with substantial infrastructure, such as global telecommunications services provider partners and public cloud providers... some of our larger competitors have substantially broader and more diverse product and services offerings, which may allow them to leverage existing commercial relationships... sell products and services with which we compete at zero or negative margins”
The demand environment for large customers shows signs of stabilization but remains a challenge. The number of large customers (> $100k Annualized Revenue) grew to 3,712 from 3,046 year-over-year. However, management continues to report periodic lengthening of sales cycles and increased scrutiny on budgets. (2 stable, 1 easing, 1 intensifying)
“we periodically have experienced lengthening of the average sales cycle for certain types of customers and sales... slowdowns in our pipeline of potential new customers and in the rate of converting sales pipeline opportunities into new sales”
The risk has moved from a general forward-looking statement to a concrete execution plan. On May 7, 2026, the company officially announced a 20% workforce reduction and expects to incur up to $150 million in restructuring charges, primarily in Q2 2026. (1 intensifying)
“On May 7, 2026, the Company announced a plan (the Plan) designed to further accelerate its evolution to an agentic AI-first operating model. As part of the Plan, the Company expects to reduce its current workforce by approximately 20%. The Company currently estimates that it will incur charges of between $140 million and $150 million in connection with the Plan”
The debt burden has intensified significantly following the issuance of $2.0 billion in new 2030 convertible notes in June 2025. Total convertible senior notes, net, rose from $1.29 billion at year-end 2024 to $3.26 billion as of June 30, 2025. While the 2025 notes were settled, the 2026 notes ($1.29 billion) remain a near-term maturity risk. (2 intensifying)
“Convertible senior notes, net [as of June 30, 2025]: 3,260,506... [as of December 31, 2024]: 1,287,321”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Cloudflare, Inc. Class A Common Stock
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