AI-generated · cited to primary sources · not investment advice · How we research
Our verdict on D-Wave Quantum Inc. Common Shares isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →QCaaS revenue actually decreased both in absolute dollars and as a percentage of total revenue for the nine-month period, as system sales dominated the revenue mix. (1 missed across 1 tracked commitment)
“QCaaS 4,158 [2025] 5,071 [2024] ... Total revenue 21,835 [2025] 6,518 [2024]”
The company plans to transition its corporate headquarters to Boca Raton, Florida and open a new U.S. R&D facility there by the end of 2026. — target: Relocation of HQ and opening of R&D facility (+4 more commitments)
“In addition, we plan to transition our corporate headquarters before the end of 2026 from Palo Alto, California to Boca Raton, Florida, and open a key U.S. R&D facility in Boca Raton, Florida under a new lease agreement.”
The company is integrating Quantum Circuits to enhance gate-model quantum computing capabilities, specifically adding dual-rail qubit technology. — target: Integration of dual-rail qubit technology
“The acquisition is intended to enhance the Company’s gate-model quantum computing capabilities by adding Quantum Circuits dual-rail qubit technology and related intellectual property, together with complementary error-detection capabilities”
Management intends to make an initial dual-rail gate-model quantum system generally available in 2026. — target: General availability of initial dual-rail system
“the intention to make an initial dual-rail system generally available in 2026”
Management expects sales and marketing expenses to continue to increase in absolute dollars to drive revenue and expand the customer base. — target: Increase in S&M spending (+3 more commitments)
“We intend to continue to make significant investments in our sales and marketing organization to drive additional revenue, expand our global customer base, and broaden our brand awareness. We expect our sales and marketing expenses to continue to increase in absolute dollars for the foreseeable future.”
See the full cited Management analysis of D-Wave Quantum Inc. Common Shares
The US market grew 11% in the quarter but its share of total revenue is being diluted by massive growth in the German market. (5 expanding across 1 engine)
“System sales $ 86 [for Three Months Ended March 31, 2026]”
The technological moat was significantly strengthened by the acquisition of Quantum Circuits, Inc. in January 2026, adding error-corrected gate-model capabilities to D-Wave's existing annealing platform. (2 expanding)
“The acquisition is intended to enhance the Company’s gate-model quantum computing capabilities by adding Quantum Circuits dual-rail qubit technology and related intellectual property.”
The cash position expanded dramatically from $178M to $819M, primarily through aggressive use of At-The-Market (ATM) equity offerings and warrant exercises. (3 expanding)
“Cash and cash equivalents $ 819,312 $ 177,980... the Company has received $390.6 million in net proceeds through the issuance of 26,344,831 Common Shares.”
QCaaS revenue grew 14.7% year-over-year, increasing its share of total revenue to 61.5% as the company shifts toward a cloud-first subscription model. (1 expanding across 1 engine)
“QCaaS $ 1,759 [for Three Months Ended March 31, 2026]”
Professional services revenue more than doubled year-over-year for the quarter, acting as a 'strategic enabler' to help customers adopt the cloud platform. (3 expanding across 1 engine)
“Professional services $ 983 [for Three Months Ended March 31, 2026]”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of D-Wave Quantum Inc. Common Shares
The acquisition of Quantum Circuits for $538.5 million represents a massive acceleration in product strategy, moving D-Wave from a single-platform (annealing) to a dual-platform (annealing + gate-model) provider. (1 accelerating across 1 signal, 1 leading indicator)
“The acquisition is intended to enhance the Company’s gate-model quantum computing capabilities by adding Quantum Circuits dual-rail qubit technology and related intellectual property... and the intention to make an initial dual-rail system generally available in 2026”
Sales and marketing investment is accelerating significantly as the company pursues new logos, with Q2 2024 spending up 77% compared to the prior year period. (5 accelerating across 5 signals)
“Sales and marketing expenses increased by $3.6 million, or 51%, to $10.5 million for the three months ended March 31, 2026... The increase was primarily driven by increases in marketing expenses of $1.3 million, personnel costs of $1.0 million”
Revenue from the United States is accelerating rapidly, nearly tripling year-over-year and increasing its contribution to total revenue from 15.6% to 29.3%. (4 accelerating, 1 reversing across 5 signals, 2 leading indicators)
“In addition, we plan to transition our corporate headquarters before the end of 2026 from Palo Alto, California to Boca Raton, Florida, and open a key U.S. R&D facility in Boca Raton, Florida under a new lease agreement.”
Core cloud revenue (QCaaS) is showing strong acceleration, growing 45% year-over-year and increasing its share of total revenue. (2 accelerating, 1 reversing across 3 signals)
“QCaaS revenue increased from $1,533 (in thousands) for the three months ended March 31, 2025, to $1,759 (in thousands) for the three months ended March 31, 2026.”
Backlog has significantly decreased from the previously reported $42.4 million to $7.4 million, indicating a sharp reduction in contracted future work. (3 reversing, 1 decelerating, 1 steady across 5 signals)
“As of March 31, 2026, the aggregate amount of remaining performance obligations that were unsatisfied or partially unsatisfied related to customer contracts was $42.4 million, of which approximately 54% is expected to be recognized to revenue in the next 12 months and 71% is expected to be recognized to revenue in the next two years”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of D-Wave Quantum Inc. Common Shares
The acquisition closed in January 2026. The company identifies significant integration risks including rationalizing systems, potential cultural conflicts, and the need to achieve synergies between annealing and gate-model technologies. (2 emerging)
“Net loss $ (7,161) [for Quantum Circuits] ... The fair value of consideration transferred was $538.5 million”
Operating expenses continue to trend upward, increasing 38% for the nine-month period to $84.1 million. Net loss for the nine months widened to $312.7 million, though this was heavily impacted by non-cash warrant liability fair value changes. (2 intensifying, 1 stable)
“Total operating expenses 84,051 61,081”
Demand for system sales has re-emerged as a major revenue driver. System sales contributed $13.7 million to revenue in the first half of 2025, compared to zero in the prior year period, driving a 289% increase in total revenue. (1 easing)
“System sales [Six Months Ended June 30, 2025] $ 13,672... Total revenue $ 18,096”
Revenue has reaccelerated significantly, growing 235% for the nine-month period, driven by $15.5 million in system sales compared to zero in the prior year period. (2 easing, 1 intensifying)
“Revenue increased by $15.3 million, or 235%, to $21.8 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025... primarily driven by system sales of $15.5 million”
Operating expenses continue to increase, rising 36% to $53.6 million for the first half of 2025. While revenue growth (289%) outpaced expense growth, the company still generated a loss from operations of $37.8 million. (1 stable)
“Total operating expenses [Six Months Ended June 30, 2025] 53,646... [2024] 39,402”
See the full cited Risk analysis of D-Wave Quantum Inc. Common Shares
AI-generated informational research only. ThesisLoop is not investment advice, a stock recommendation, or a guarantee of returns.