# Vaibhav vs Goldiam: Two Roads to Global Jewellery Domination

> One sells via TV shopping networks, the other manufactures for global brands. Which Indian jewellery exporter offers the better long-term bet?

**Companies**: Vaibhav Global, Goldiam Intl.
**Sectors**: Consumer
**Published**: 2026-03-25
**Last Updated**: 2026-03-30
**Source**: https://thesisloop.ai/thesis/7514e644-244b-4ed6-902e-f67c612a4557

## Score Overview

| Company | Management | Business Model | Future Growth | Risk |
|---------|-----------|---------------|--------------|------|
| Vaibhav Global | 67/100 | 77/100 | 66/100 | 58/100 |
| Goldiam Intl. | 81/100 | 60/100 | 77/100 | 73/100 |

## Vaibhav Global (BSE:532156)

**Sector**: Consumer | **Industry**: Gems, Jewellery And Watches

### Management Credibility

- **[METRIC] New Customer Additions and Repeat Rate** (NEUTRAL): The company aims to reduce the customer acquisition cost recovery period to 3 to 6 months. — target: 3 to 6 months
  > Our aim is to bring that down to within 3 to 6 months of the acquisition of the customer.
- **[TREND] Lab-Grown Diamond Disruption** (NEUTRAL): The company expects lab-grown diamond sales to be in the double digits (10-12%) for the foreseeable future. — target: 10-12%
  > So, we expect it to be double digit for about 10%, 12% for foreseeable future.
- **[TREND] Omnichannel and Online Jewellery Growth** (NEUTRAL, IN_PROGRESS): Digital sales contributed 43% of B2C sales in Q1 FY26, remaining on track for the 50% target by FY27. (1 in progress across 1 tracked commitment)
  > We are on path to achieve 50% sales mix from digital businesses by FY ‘27.
- Germany operations achieved EBITDA breakeven in Q3 FY25, which falls within H2 FY25. (4 met, 1 missed across 5 tracked commitments) (POSITIVE, MET)
  > We expect a robust performance in FY '25 and achieve 14% to 17% revenue growth with strong operating leverage.

### Business Model

- **[METRIC] Same-Store Sales Growth** (POSITIVE, Change: EXPANDING): TV revenue grew to Rs. 1,900 crores in FY25 from Rs. 1,769 crores in FY24, showing steady growth. (1 expanding)
  > TV Revenue: 1,769 (FY24) to 1,900 (FY25)
- **[PRINCIPLE] Making Charges as Margin Driver** (POSITIVE, Change: EXPANDING): Gross margins remained robust at 63.1% for FY25, demonstrating the continued effectiveness of the vertically integrated supply chain. (1 stable, 1 expanding)
  > Gross margin (%) 62.0% (FY24) | 63.1% (FY25)
- **[TREND] Lab-Grown Diamond Disruption** (POSITIVE, Change: EXPANDING): The lab-grown diamond portfolio has scaled significantly, now contributing 11% of group sales compared to 1% in the same quarter last year. (1 expanding)
  > successful scale-up of our lab-grown diamond jewellery portfolio, which contributes to 11% of group's overall sales in Q1, up from 1% in the same quarter last year.
- **[TREND] Omnichannel and Online Jewellery Growth** (POSITIVE, Change: EXPANDING): Digital revenue grew to Rs. 1,314 crores in FY25 from Rs. 1,145 crores in FY24, maintaining a strong growth trajectory. (5 expanding)
  > Digital Revenue: 1,145 (FY24) to 1,314 (FY25)
- TV revenue grew 6.7% year-over-year to INR 487 crores, showing steady performance. (3 expanding, 2 stable across 2 engines) (POSITIVE, Change: EXPANDING)
  > TV revenue stood at INR589 crores, growing 7.7% year-over-year, while digital revenue increased by 11.2% year-over-year to INR423 crores. Digital now accounts for 42% of total revenue

### Future Growth

- **[METRIC] New Customer Additions and Repeat Rate** (POSITIVE, Trend: ACCELERATING): The unique customer base grew to 580,000 as of March 31, 2024, a 26% increase year-over-year. (5 accelerating across 5 signals)
  > As of March 31, 2024, our unique customer base stood at 580,000, which is 26% higher Y-o-Y.
- **[PRINCIPLE] Making Charges as Margin Driver** (POSITIVE, Trend: STEADY): Gross margins remained strong at 63.5%, supported by a vertically integrated supply chain and favorable product mix. (3 steady across 3 signals)
  > Consistent with our guidance, we maintained strong gross margins at 63.5%, supported by strategic pricing and favourable product mix.
- **[TREND] Lab-Grown Diamond Disruption** (POSITIVE, Trend: ACCELERATING): Lab-grown diamonds have scaled rapidly to 8.9% of quarterly sales, up from 0.2% a year ago, showing strong acceleration. (4 accelerating, 1 new trend across 5 signals)
  > Yes. LGD is now double digit, roughly around 10.7% of our retail revenue. And average selling price is roughly around $250 for lab grown.
- **[TREND] Omnichannel and Online Jewellery Growth** (NEGATIVE, Trend: REVERSING): OTT sales showed strong growth through FY25 but experienced a decline in H1 FY26, indicating a potential reversal or seasonal fluctuation. (1 reversing, 4 steady across 5 signals)
  > Digital contribution was 42% of B2C revenue, and we remain on track to reach 50% digital contribution by end of FY '27.
- Consolidated revenue for Q4 FY24 was INR 789 crores, representing a 14% year-over-year growth, with full-year revenue crossing the INR 3,000 crore mark for the first time. (2 accelerating, 1 decelerating, 2 steady across 5 signals, 1 leading indicator) (NEGATIVE, Trend: DECELERATING)
  > Our consolidated quarterly revenue crossed INR1,000 crore mark for the first time, reaching INR1,066 crores, a 9.1% Y-o-Y growth.

### Risk Assessment

- **[METRIC] New Customer Additions and Repeat Rate** (POSITIVE): TV network reached 127 million households and grew 6% in the first half of the year, showing recovery in momentum. (1 easing)
  > In the Q2, our TV network reached 127 million households. As of 30th September 2025, our unique customer base stood at 7,14,000, up 5% Y-o-Y and the highest in our history.
- **[PRINCIPLE] Gold Price Impact on Consumer Behavior** (NEGATIVE, Risk: HIGH): The company reported 10.2% YoY revenue growth in Q2 FY26, suggesting an easing of demand pressures compared to previous periods. (1 easing, 1 stable, 1 high-severity)
  > Due to softness in overall consumer confidence, combined with steeply higher precious metal prices, consumer deferred their purchases. This had a direct impact on core TJC's growth.
- **[PRINCIPLE] Making Charges as Margin Driver** (NEUTRAL): Gross margins remained stable at 63.5% YoY, indicating effective management of product costs despite potential tariff pressures. (1 stable)
  > Gross Profit (Rs. Cr) and Margin (%): 63.5% (Q2 FY25) | 63.5% (Q2 FY26)
- **[TREND] Lab-Grown Diamond Disruption** (NEUTRAL, Risk: MODERATE): TV revenue showed modest growth of 1% year-over-year, indicating continued pressure on volume-based growth in the TV segment. (1 stable, 1 easing, 1 intensifying)
  > I have few questions quarterly sales volume for TV declined from 1.74 million to 1.71 million units and digital volume dropped.
- Trajectory is STABLE to INTENSIFYING as management revised revenue guidance downward from 8-12% to 7-9% due to consumer sentiment. (2 intensifying, 3 easing) (POSITIVE, Risk: MODERATE)
  > However, we still had 489 basis points increase in our overall product costs due to tariff on other products.

### Scenario Analysis

- 3 positive impacts identified (POSITIVE)
  > Yes, that is true. We constantly, we are implementing the process improvement, automation and AI into our business processes. And that is the reason you saw 1.2% efficiency improvement last quarter in our HR costs.
- 1 negative impact identified (NEGATIVE)
  > Performance during the quarter was achieved despite tough geopolitical conditions.

## Goldiam Intl. (BSE:526729)

**Sector**: Consumer | **Industry**: Gems, Jewellery And Watches

### Management Credibility

- **[CATALYST] Franchise-Led Rapid Store Expansion** (NEUTRAL): The company plans to open the taps for the franchisee model for ORIGEM stores within the next calendar year or next financial year.
  > At some point, we will also open the taps for the franchisee model. That will happen perhaps within the next calendar year, certainly next financial year.
- **[METRIC] Same-Store Sales Growth** (NEUTRAL): The company targets monthly sales of INR 40 lakhs per store for its new B2C retail venture. — target: INR 40 lakhs
  > We believe we should target INR40 lakhs of monthly sales per store.
- **[METRIC] Store Count Growth and Format Mix** (NEUTRAL, IN_PROGRESS): The company opened its first store in Borivali (W) and has signed leases for two more stores at Kharghar and Bandra, which are expected to be operational soon. (2 in progress, 1 met across 3 tracked commitments)
  > We plan to have our first few stores up and running by Q3 FY25 in time for the festive season and aim to become the largest retailer of lab-grown diamond jewellery in our country.
- **[PRINCIPLE] Organized Market Share Expansion** (NEUTRAL): The company aims to become the largest retailer of lab-grown diamond jewellery in India. — target: Largest retailer of lab-grown diamond jewellery
  > we hope that we will, within the first year of operations and store launch itself, effectively in calendar year 2025, become the largest [COCO 0:20:12] lab-grown diamond jewellery retailer in India.
- **[TREND] Lab-Grown Diamond Disruption** (NEUTRAL): ORIGEM is aimed to be the largest exclusive lab-grown diamond jewellery retail chain in India. — target: Largest exclusive lab-grown diamond jewellery retail chain in India
  > ORIGEM Aimed to be the largest “exclusive Lab-grown Diamond jewellery” retail chain in India.
- The company reported an order book of ₹ 2700 mn as of September 30, 2024, which is significantly higher than the previous guidance of ₹ 1500 mn. (3 exceeded, 2 met across 5 tracked commitments) (POSITIVE, EXCEEDED)
  > In terms of India, the opportunity we see is, I think within calendar year 2024, we should be able to have some start on that business venture.

### Business Model

- **[METRIC] Studded and Diamond Jewellery Revenue Mix** (NEGATIVE, Change: CONTRACTING): Natural diamond jewelry contribution to revenue has declined to 18% in Q4 FY '25 as the company shifts focus toward lab-grown diamonds. (2 contracting)
  > our proportion of lab-grown diamonds is around 82% now and 18% is of natural diamonds in our Q4 revenues.
- **[PRINCIPLE] Making Charges as Margin Driver** (POSITIVE, Change: STABLE): The company continues to leverage its position as a top 5 buyer of lab-grown loose diamonds and in-house manufacturing to maintain high gross margins (42-45% in B2C). (1 stable)
  > Today, Goldiam would be probably among the top or certainly among the top 5 buyers of lab-grown loose diamonds... ORIGEM is currently selling jewelry at a 42% to 45% gross margin.
- **[TREND] Lab-Grown Diamond Disruption** (POSITIVE, Change: EXPANDING): Lab-grown diamond jewelry exports increased to 81.8% of the export sales mix in Q4 FY '25, up from 54% in Q4 FY '24. (5 expanding across 1 engine)
  > Lab-grown diamond jewellery share in Q3 FY26 export revenue have increased to 90.5% share in overall sale
- The company maintains a strong cash position of INR 2,883.7 million as of March 31, 2025, and has approved an enabling resolution for a fundraise of up to INR 4 billion to support retail expansion. (3 expanding, 2 contracting across 1 engine) (NEUTRAL, Change: SHIFTED)
  > NATURAL 5% 2.5% 10% 7% 9.5%

### Future Growth

- **[METRIC] Store Count Growth and Format Mix** (POSITIVE, Trend: ACCELERATING): Goldiam is aggressively scaling its ORIGEM retail chain, moving from 6 operational stores in Mumbai to signing up 8 additional stores in new cities like Bangalore, Delhi NCR, and Chandigarh, with a long-term target of 100-125 stores in 24-36 months. (3 accelerating, 2 new trend across 5 signals)
  > Goldiam currently has six operational ORIGEM stores in Mumbai... The company has further signed up for opening 8 additional stores... Goldiam plans to open 100-125 ORIGEM stores in the next 24-36 months
- **[METRIC] Studded and Diamond Jewellery Revenue Mix** (POSITIVE, Trend: ACCELERATING): The revenue share from lab-grown diamond jewellery has increased significantly from 19% in Q2 FY23 to 34-35% in Q2 FY24, indicating a strong shift in product mix. (5 accelerating across 5 signals)
  > we've been able to increase our percentage of revenue on a higher base of lab-grown diamond jewellery from 19% in Q2, FY 2023 to 34%, 35% in Q2 FY 2024.
- **[PRINCIPLE] Making Charges as Margin Driver** (POSITIVE, Trend: ACCELERATING): EBITDA margins improved to 18.1% in Q4 FY24 from 16.7% in Q4 FY23, driven by the shift toward lab-grown diamonds and online sales. (1 accelerating, 1 steady across 2 signals)
  > EBIDTA margins at 18.1% improved by 140 basis points over the Q4 FY23 due to an increased mix of lab grown diamond business and online business.
- **[TREND] Lab-Grown Diamond Disruption** (POSITIVE, Trend: ACCELERATING): The contribution of lab-grown diamonds to total revenue has increased significantly from 21% in FY23 to 49% in FY24, with a quarterly peak of 54%. (5 accelerating across 5 signals)
  > Lab-grown diamond jewellery share in Q3 FY26 export revenue have increased to 90.5% share in overall sale
- **[TREND] Omnichannel and Online Jewellery Growth** (POSITIVE, Trend: STEADY): Online sales as a percentage of total revenue has shown steady growth, increasing from 23% in FY23 to 28% in FY24. (1 steady across 1 signal)
  > Overall Online sales increased from 23% in FY23 to 28% in FY24.
- Revenue grew 12% YoY for the quarter, recovering from an 11% decline in Q1 to end the full year with 13% growth. (5 accelerating across 5 signals, 1 leading indicator) (POSITIVE, Trend: ACCELERATING)
  > Despite the tariff overhang, festive season demand in the US during Q3 FY2026 helped Goldiam post consolidated revenue growth of 18% Y-o-Y at ₹ 3397 million.

### Risk Assessment

- **[METRIC] Gold Price Hedging Effectiveness** (NEUTRAL): Inventory levels increased due to the new U.S. casting model requiring additional gold investment and preparation for the holiday season. Management expects this to normalize in Q3. (1 stable)
  > We see this normalize in Q3. We will see this normalize in Q3. We're already seeing that play out as the gold cycle has now normalized
- **[METRIC] Store Count Growth and Format Mix** (NEUTRAL): The company is scaling from 6 stores to a target of 20-25 stores in FY26, which requires significant capital and operational oversight. (1 intensifying, 1 emerging, 1 easing, 2 stable)
  > We are expecting in this current financial year to have around 20 to 25 stores as per the current flow of plans.
- **[PRINCIPLE] Making Charges as Margin Driver** (NEUTRAL): Gross margins have improved on a full-year basis (36.1% in FY25 vs 33.8% in FY24), showing an easing of margin pressure. (2 easing, 2 intensifying)
  > Gross Margin % FY25: 36.1% vs FY24: 33.8% (235 bps)
- **[TREND] Lab-Grown Diamond Disruption** (NEGATIVE, Risk: HIGH): Lab-grown diamond jewelry exports increased to 81.8% of the export sales mix in Q4 FY25, up from 54% in Q4 FY24, indicating higher concentration. (5 intensifying, 1 high-severity)
  > Lab-grown diamond jewellery share in Q3 FY26 export revenue have increased to 90.5% share in overall sale
- As of September 2025, 72% of inventory is held with customers on consignment, compared to the previously noted 65%. (1 intensifying, 4 easing, 1 high-severity) (NEGATIVE, Risk: MODERATE)
  > Despite the tariff overhang, festive season demand in the US during Q3 FY2026 helped Goldiam post consolidated revenue growth of 18% Y-o-Y

### Scenario Analysis

- 1 positive impact identified (POSITIVE)
  > Analytics-oriented design and new product development, leading to successful product launches
- 1 positive impact identified; 1 negative impact identified (NEUTRAL)
  > US origin casting model: Through its U.S. subsidiary, Goldiam has started casting raw gold into unfinished jewellery pieces within the United States, providing employment and job opportunities domestically in the US. These castings are then shipped to India for alterations, including processes like 

---
*Generated by [ThesisLoop](https://thesisloop.ai) — AI investment research for Indian equities.*