# Eternal vs. Swiggy: Quick-Commerce Growth, Dark-Store Expansion and the Path to Profitability > A side-by-side look at Eternal (Zomato and Blinkit) and Swiggy, examining management commentary on quick-commerce growth, dark-store expansion and the route to profitability. The analysis compares their business models, risks and growth outlook, and explores scenarios that could shape the competition between Blinkit and Instamart. **Companies**: Swiggy, Eternal **Sectors**: Technology **Published**: 2026-10-15 **Last Updated**: 2026-10-16 **Source**: https://thesisloop.ai/thesis/eternal-vs-swiggy-quick-commerce-growth-dark-store-expansion-and-the-path-to-40944c47-679e-4a1e-98f6-625b2e9c063d ## Score Overview | Company | Management | Business Model | Future Growth | Risk | |---------|-----------|---------------|--------------|------| | Swiggy | 69/100 | 73/100 | 59/100 | 70/100 | | Eternal | 73/100 | 66/100 | 59/100 | 62/100 | ## Swiggy (BSE:544285) **Sector**: Technology | **Industry**: E-Retail/ E-Commerce ### Management Credibility - **[METRIC] Average Order Value (AOV)** (POSITIVE, EXCEEDED): The letter reports continued expansion of non-grocery selection and larger darkstores, but provides no updated SKU/category count and no evidence about Megapods or realized throughput against the 2x potential. Active darkstore area reached 4.79 million sq ft, with average store size above 4,200 sq ft. (2 in progress, 1 exceeded across 3 tracked commitments) > And for sure, there is a headroom for higher AOV. It's just very hard to visibly look at and say how much of it will it go to. But we see there is a substantial offering especially because the consumer penetration of some of these categories are extremely low. So as and when more users become mature - Source: Concall Transcript · Nov 2025 · p.10 - **[METRIC] Contribution Margin per Order** (POSITIVE, MET): The presentation reports a 5.4pp improvement from JFM’25 to AMJ’26, exceeding the 2.5pp improvement target. The document does not isolate the exact two-quarter interval for the 250bp commitment, so this comparison is against the total improvement explicitly reported rather than a like-for-like two-quarter measurement. (1 exceeded, 4 met across 5 tracked commitments) > We have since made substantial progress of 450 bps of CM improvement till Mar-26 and are confident of achieving the break-even guidance in Q1FY27 (in line with our goal). - Source: Investor PPT · May 2026 · p.13 - **[METRIC] Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) Growth** (NEUTRAL, IN_PROGRESS): Q4FY26 Food Delivery GOV growth was 22.6% YoY, above the 18–20% guidance range. Management reiterated the 18–20% medium-term guidance; it did not revise the target. (1 exceeded, 1 met, 3 in progress across 5 tracked commitments) > We are confident of the stickiness of our recent efforts on the growth initiatives, and reiterate our sustainable medium term guidance of 18-20% YoY GOV growth. - Source: Investor PPT · May 2026 · p.10 - **[METRIC] Monthly Transacting Users (MTU)** (NEUTRAL, IN_PROGRESS): Management described continued development of food-delivery propositions, including Bolt, 99-store and Deskeats, and said Bolt and 99-store together account for well over one-fifth of platform volumes. The letter does not give updated coverage figures for the previously stated city, tech-park or total-cost targets, so those specific targets cannot be assessed. (3 in progress across 3 tracked commitments) > We believe that churn will be another two quarters. And after that, you will see a healthy movement on our MTU numbers as well. - Source: Concall Transcript · May 2026 · p.16 - **[METRIC] Order Frequency per Active Customer** (NEUTRAL): Increase Instamart repeat rate by 1.2–1.4x by growing habituated users to 30–35%. — target: Repeat rate 1.2–1.4x; habituated users 30–35% (+2 more commitments) > REPEAT RATE AMBITION 1.2-1.4x On the back of 30-35% Habituated Users - Source: Investor PPT · Aug 2026 · p.66 - **[PRINCIPLE] FDI Compliance and Marketplace Model Constraints** (NEUTRAL): Transition Instamart to a 1P inventory model after shareholder approval of the foreign-shareholding cap, with the transition expected to take 2–4 quarters post-approval. — target: Instamart transition to 1P within 2–4 quarters post-approval > 1st July 2026 Domestic ownership crossed 50% 23rd July 2026 Board approved 49.5% foreign shareholding cap 18th August 2026 Shareholder vote at the 13th AGM 2-4 Quarters Instamart’s transition to 1P post-approval - Source: Investor PPT · Aug 2026 · p.141 - **[PRINCIPLE] GMV vs Revenue Recognition** (NEUTRAL): Management expects NOV-to-GOV pressure to be limited going forward, notwithstanding the secular increase in non-grocery mix and free-delivery or loyalty orders. > Now it's very hard to, because we have seen our FMCG growth also being at a decent clip. But there could be some pressure on the NOV to GOV ratio, but not a lot, hence going forward. This particular -- any festive season generally has a higher delta since the next two months are not going to be fest - Source: Concall Transcript · Nov 2025 · p.20 - **[PRINCIPLE] Unit Economics at Contribution Margin Level** (NEUTRAL, IN_PROGRESS): Management reaffirmed the contribution-margin break-even target for the quarter ending June 2026 (Q1 FY27). It said the business remained on track and identified roughly 250 basis points of improvement to achieve over the next two quarters; the target has not yet fallen due. (5 in progress across 5 tracked commitments) > Emphasis on profitable basket-value growth ... Higher advertising revenue ... Optimization of customer incentives ... Unlocking operating leverage with scale - Source: Investor PPT · Nov 2025 · p.14 - **[TREND] Quick Commerce Disruption** (NEUTRAL, IN_PROGRESS): Management said the current network can comfortably double the business without additional stores, apart from densification when utilization is maxed. Current dark-store utilization is approximately 40%, indicating spare capacity; no actual doubling of GOV or dated target was reported. (4 in progress across 4 tracked commitments) > will continue to see compounding operating leverage with increased utilization from the current ~40% and can comfortably double our business without the need to add additional stores (other than those required for densification due to maxing out on utilization). - Source: Investor PPT · May 2026 · p.13 - **[TREND] Retail Media Advertising Monetization** (NEUTRAL): Build a path to quick-commerce EBITDA profitability through additional NOV scale and monetization; management quantified approximately INR 30 of improvement to reach break-even, followed by a further INR 25–30 toward steady EBITDA. — target: Approximately INR 30 to reach EBITDA break-even, then a further INR 25–30 toward steady EBITDA (+4 more commitments) > So Vivek, if you have seen our journey for the next INR30, which we need to achieve to hit breakeven on EBITDA. Again, INR20 roughly, that is going to come from the monetization side, roughly broken half and half between, say, the product margins that we make from the brands or the mix of our busine - Source: Concall Transcript · Aug 2026 · p.10 - **[TREND] Value Commerce and Tier-2/3 Penetration** (NEUTRAL): Develop Toing as a distinct, value-oriented food-delivery proposition, with lower commissions than the Swiggy platform to enable restaurants to offer everyday low prices. (+1 more commitment) > That level of expansion will happen, though it will be smaller based on the number that we have. ... The third level of expansion that we see is expanding in existing cities where we would have left out some or the other areas. But the way to think about it is that in the current network that we hav - Source: Concall Transcript · May 2026 · p.10 - Out-of-home adjusted EBITDA margin continued to expand, reaching 0.7% in Q3FY26, up 16 bps QoQ and from -1.0% a year earlier. The business reported adjusted EBITDA of INR 8 crore. (1 exceeded, 4 in progress across 5 tracked commitments) (NEUTRAL, IN_PROGRESS) > From a guidance perspective, our Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance of 5% of GOV in the medium-term remains unchanged and we continue to progressively move towards that goal. - Source: Investor PPT · May 2026 · p.11 ### Business Model - **[METRIC] Average Order Value (AOV)** (POSITIVE, Change: SHIFTED): Average order value rose from Rs. 534 in Q3 FY25 to Rs. 746 in Q3 FY26, up about 40%. The mix shifted toward non-grocery goods, which exceeded 32% of sales in Q3 FY26 versus 15.6% in Q3 FY25, supporting larger baskets; this is a favorable move toward broader assortment and higher-value orders. (3 shifted) > the non-grocery share in our sales mix has risen to over 32% (from 26% last quarter), with categories like Electronics, Home & Kitchen, Jewellery/Accessories and Toys/Sports driving the jump - Source: Investor PPT · Feb 2026 · p.14 - **[METRIC] Contribution Margin per Order** (POSITIVE, Change: EXPANDING): Quick Commerce's contribution margin improved from -5.6% of GOV in Q4 FY25 to -2.6% in Q2 FY26, and adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed from INR 896 Cr in Q1 FY26 to INR 849 Cr in Q2 FY26. The latest quarter therefore continued the margin-improvement trajectory, although the business remained loss-making. (5 expanding) > Contribution Profit margin ... (5.6%) (Q4FY25) ... (2.6%) (Q2FY26); Adjusted EBITDA ... (896) (Q1FY26) ... (849) (Q2FY26). - Source: Investor PPT · Nov 2025 · p.9 - **[METRIC] Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) Growth** (POSITIVE, Change: EXPANDING): Food Delivery GOV rose 18.8% year over year to INR 8,542 Cr in Q2 FY26. Adjusted EBITDA increased from INR 112 Cr in Q2 FY25 to INR 240 Cr, while its margin improved from 1.6% to 2.8% of GOV. The segment was profitable and remained the largest B2C GOV stream, though its share of B2C GOV declined from 64% to 51% as Quick Commerce expanded faster. (5 expanding across 2 engines) > Gross Order value (INR Cr) 8,086 9,490 Q1FY26 Q1FY27 +17%; Adj EBITDA (% GOV) 2.4% 3.1% - Source: Investor PPT · Aug 2026 · p.10 - **[METRIC] Monthly Transacting Users (MTU)** (POSITIVE, Change: EXPANDING): The unified app's cross-service use increased: users transacting on more than one Swiggy offering rose from 28.1% in Q2 FY25 to 35.7% in Q2 FY26. Platform monthly transacting users grew from 17.1 million to 22.9 million over the same period, supporting the presentation's network-effect argument. (2 expanding) > More than one offering: 28.1% (Q2FY25) ... 35.7% (Q2FY26); MTU: 17.1 ... 22.9. - Source: Investor PPT · Nov 2025 · p.18 - **[METRIC] Order Frequency per Active Customer** (POSITIVE, Change: EXPANDING): The Q4 FY26 call describes Instamart differentiation through products such as Noice and says early uptake is encouraging, with the intended benefit being better retention, repeat use, and engagement. The later baseline reports that No!ce customers order more frequently and have higher retention than the platform average. This is stronger evidence of the same customer-retention mechanism, but neither period quantifies its financial impact. (1 expanding) > early signs are very, very encouraging. ... what really helps propositions like this is consumer retention and frequency increase over time. - Source: Concall Transcript · May 2026 · p.4 - **[PRINCIPLE] GMV vs Revenue Recognition** (NEUTRAL): Swiggy operates a consumer platform for restaurant food delivery, quick-commerce groceries and everyday goods, and restaurant discovery and dining services. > INR 18,926 Cr 28% YoY B2C GOV; 27.5 Mn 27% YoY Avg MTU - Source: Investor PPT · Aug 2026 · p.6 - **[PRINCIPLE] Last-Mile Logistics Cost Structure** (NEUTRAL, Change: STABLE): The Q3 FY26 call described expected cost benefits from better use of stores, faster replenishment, shorter movement through the supply chain, and more productive delivery operations. This is consistent with the Aug 2026 baseline's description of using existing infrastructure and batching to manage costs, but neither period provides a comparable cost-per-order figure. The operational levers are being developed; a realized cost advantage over competitors is not demonstrated. (1 stable) > Runs on Swiggy’s existing infrastructure logistics and support; Shorter last miles (~2kms avg.) and higher batching on a slower network; Lower restaurant commissions - Source: Investor PPT · Aug 2026 · p.37 - **[PRINCIPLE] Unit Economics at Contribution Margin Level** (POSITIVE, Change: EXPANDING): The presentation does not provide a quantified quarter-to-quarter measure of Swiggy's cost advantage. It does show that food-delivery costs below contribution profit fell from 5.1% of GOV in Q2 FY24 to 4.5% in Q2 FY26 while adjusted EBITDA margin improved, but this is segment cost performance rather than a direct comparison with competitors. (2 expanding, 1 stable) > Below contribution costs: 5.1% (Q2FY24) ... 4.5% (Q2FY26). - Source: Investor PPT · Nov 2025 · p.8 - **[TREND] Quick Commerce Disruption** (POSITIVE, Change: EXPANDING): Quick Commerce grew rapidly: GOV increased from INR 3,382 Cr in Q2 FY25 to INR 7,022 Cr in Q2 FY26, while its B2C GOV share expanded from 30% to 42%. Its losses remain substantial, but the adjusted EBITDA margin improved from -10.6% to -12.1% in the latest quarter after reaching -18.0% in Q4 FY25; adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed sequentially from INR 896 Cr in Q1 FY26 to INR 849 Cr in Q2 FY26. (5 expanding across 1 engine) > Instamart became only the 2nd player to demonstrate CM breakeven AND grew GOV by 40%; Gross Order Value (INR Cr) 5,655 7,907 Q1FY26 Q1FY27 +40%; Contribution (% GOV) -4.6% -0.2% - Source: Investor PPT · Aug 2026 · p.11 - **[TREND] Retail Media Advertising Monetization** (POSITIVE, Change: EXPANDING): Non-grocery products increased from 9% to 26% of Instamart’s mix over the year. Management said grocery would remain the larger share, but expected non-grocery to keep increasing; it also noted that non-grocery categories typically offer higher margins and advertising potential. This is a favorable mix shift, not evidence that grocery itself is contracting in absolute terms. (1 shifted, 1 stable, 2 expanding) > “non-grocery has moved from 9% to 26% in the last one year”; “typically, non-groceries have higher margins as well as the ability for these brands to also fund for advertising” (Q2 FY26 transcript, pages 5–6). - Source: Concall Transcript · Nov 2025 · p.5 - **[TREND] Value Commerce and Tier-2/3 Penetration** (POSITIVE, Change: SHIFTED): The Q3 FY26 call describes Instamart expanding warehousing into Tier 2 and Tier 3 towns and says the company had more than doubled warehousing capacity over the preceding four quarters. The Aug 2026 baseline reports Instamart in more than 130 cities, but this transcript gives no comparable city count or geographic revenue split. The evidence supports infrastructure expansion into smaller Indian markets, not a quantified change in geographic revenue mix. (4 expanding, 1 shifted) > A lot of this warehousing capacity is also coming into Tier 2, Tier 3 towns ... over the last 4 quarters, we have more than doubled our warehousing capacity. - Source: Concall Transcript · Feb 2026 · p.4 - Instamart's operating footprint expanded from 609 active dark stores in Q2 FY25 to 1,102 in Q2 FY26, and from 44 to 128 cities. The larger footprint can support wider selection and more capacity, although the presentation also notes that recent store additions temporarily reduced utilization. (5 expanding) (POSITIVE, Change: EXPANDING) > One profile across Food and Instamart turns every search, order and reorder into a live model of intent — inferring the routine, then predicting the next order and its timing. - Source: Investor PPT · Aug 2026 · p.109 ### Future Growth - **[METRIC] Contribution Margin per Order** (POSITIVE, Trend: ACCELERATING): The specific four-week growth comparison and Q2 FY27 outlook in the extracted signal are not reported here. Available quarterly data show GOV rose from Rs. 7,022 Cr in Q2 FY26 to Rs. 7,938 Cr in Q3, then edged down to Rs. 7,881 Cr in Q4; however, management reports Q4 net order value growth of 60.3% year over year and 4% sequentially. Contribution margin improved substantially, from -5.6% a year earlier to -1.8% in Q4 and -1.1% in March, indicating improving economics even as near-term GOV momentum softened. (1 decelerating, 1 new trend across 2 signals) > Contribution (% GOV) -4.6% -0.2% ... Gross Order Value (INR Cr) 5,655 7,907 +40% - Source: Investor PPT · Aug 2026 · p.11 - **[METRIC] Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) Growth** (POSITIVE, Trend: ACCELERATING): The presentation shows quarterly Instamart GOV rising from ₹3,382 crore in Q2 FY25 to ₹7,022 crore in Q2 FY26, while year-over-year growth accelerated from 75.5% to 107.6%. This is a strong, accelerating signal. The presentation does not provide the cited FY26 annual GOV or FY31 target. (5 accelerating across 5 signals) > Instamart will be a ₹1.5+ Lakh Cr GOV business serving 40+ mn users by 2031. GOV Growth 4-5X from ₹28K Cr in FY26. 42% CAGR - Source: Investor PPT · Aug 2026 · p.98 - **[METRIC] Monthly Transacting Users (MTU)** (NEGATIVE, Trend: DECELERATING): Food-delivery monthly transacting users increased from 14.7 million in Q2 FY25 to 17.2 million in Q2 FY26. Year-over-year user growth strengthened from 13.4% to 17.2%, though it dipped in Q4 FY25 and then recovered. Food-delivery GOV growth likewise reached 18.8% in the latest quarter, versus 14.6% a year earlier. (3 accelerating, 1 new trend, 1 decelerating across 5 signals) > 130+ Cities 14M+ Monthly Transacting Users 1,200+ Dark Store Network - Source: Investor PPT · Aug 2026 · p.55 - **[METRIC] Order Frequency per Active Customer** (POSITIVE, Trend: NEW_TREND): The call discusses Noice as an early differentiation initiative and says the initial uptake of its labels is encouraging, but supplies no basket share, frequency, or retention figures. No quantitative multi-quarter trajectory can be assessed from this document. (2 new trend across 2 signals) > No!ce's real proof point is stickiness - 10pp higher retention, 1.5x order frequency versus platform average ... 1 in 10 Basket Penetration - Source: Investor PPT · Aug 2026 · p.89 - **[TREND] Quick Commerce Disruption** (POSITIVE, Trend: ACCELERATING): Quick-commerce GOV growth remained above 100% year over year for a fourth consecutive quarter, while NOV growth was about 76% in Q3 FY26, the highest in seven quarters. NOV growth edged up from 70.7% in Q2 FY26 to 75.9% in Q3 FY26. The company does not give the earlier signal’s four-week growth comparison or contribution-loss guidance in this letter. (3 accelerating, 2 new trend across 5 signals, 2 leading indicators) > QC is expected to grow at 40-45% CAGR over next 4-5 years to reach 65-70B$ in size - Source: Investor PPT · Aug 2026 · p.58 - **[TREND] Retail Media Advertising Monetization** (NEUTRAL): Quick-commerce profitability can improve through better monetization from brands, advertising and customer fees, alongside higher-margin own-brand products. Swiggy estimates that roughly Rs. 20 of the next Rs. 30 per order needed toward quick-commerce EBITDA break-even will come from monetization—about Rs. 10 from brand/product margins and Rs. 10 from advertising. It expects a further Rs. 25–30 per order improvement for its steady-state EBITDA goal, but the timing was not specified. — Quick-commerce revenue per order needed toward EBITDA break-even: A further Rs. 25–30 per order was described as the next step toward steady-state EBITDA > So Vivek, if you have seen our journey for the next INR30, which we need to achieve to hit breakeven on EBITDA. Again, INR20 roughly, that is going to come from the monetization side, roughly broken half and half between, say, the product margins that we make from the brands or the mix of our busine - Source: Concall Transcript · Aug 2026 · p.11 - The network expanded rapidly to 1,102 active dark stores across 128 cities by Q2 FY26. After a large Q4 FY25 addition, store-count growth slowed from 95% year over year to 81% in Q2 FY26. The utilization evidence is more encouraging recently: daily orders per store recovered from 985 in Q1 FY26 to 1,025 in Q2 FY26, against stated average capacity above 2,000. (1 decelerating, 1 steady, 1 discontinued, 1 new trend across 4 signals, 2 leading indicators) (POSITIVE, Trend: NEW_TREND) > So at the base level, we believe that food delivery remains still quite under-penetrated in India. And with just maybe 1 out of 10 Indians having ever having transacted on a food delivery platform, and that too a bulk of those transacted probably low frequency. That's point number one, that the oppo - Source: Concall Transcript · Aug 2026 · p.5 ### Risk Assessment - **[CATALYST] Government Intervention on Delivery Timelines** (NEUTRAL): In Q3 FY26, management said food-delivery contribution margin had improved by 30 basis points and expected steady-state adjusted EBITDA margins of 4.5%–5% of GOV, supported by operating leverage and efficiency. On labour regulation, it said draft developments had caused no shock and any small cost impact could be passed through, while final details were still pending. The later baseline does not provide a comparable labour-cost or margin update for this risk, so no change in severity can be established. (1 insufficient_data) > There could be a small impact, but that would be a pass-through impact and therefore no impact on our P&L due to that. But we'll obviously know more when it's finally approved. - Source: Concall Transcript · Feb 2026 · p.17 - **[METRIC] Average Order Value (AOV)** (POSITIVE): Instamart average monthly users rose from 11.1 million in Q1 FY26 to 12.0 million in Q2 FY26. Average order value increased from ₹612 to ₹697, and monthly GOV per user increased from ₹1,705 to ₹1,955. Those figures show improving user spending and basket value in the latest quarter. The baseline contains longer-term user, frequency and GOV targets, but does not provide comparable actual-versus-target outcomes, so the risk is easing on current operating indicators without a complete assessment of target delivery. (1 easing, 1 insufficient_data) > GOV / User (INR / Month) ... 1,705 ... 1,955; AOV (INR per order) ... 612 ... 697; Average MTU ... 11.1 ... 12.0 - Source: Investor PPT · Nov 2025 · p.12 - **[METRIC] Contribution Margin per Order** (NEGATIVE, Risk: MODERATE): Within this document, Instamart's contribution loss improved from ₹260 crore in Q4 FY25 and Q1 FY26 to ₹181 crore in Q2 FY26; its contribution margin improved from -5.6% to -2.6% over the same period. Adjusted EBITDA loss also eased from ₹896 crore in Q1 FY26 to ₹849 crore in Q2 FY26, although it remained deeply negative at -12.1% of GOV. The Aug 2026 baseline reports contribution margin of -0.2%, indicating further improvement after this document. Overall trajectory is easing, but the business was still materially loss-making in Q2 FY26. (5 easing, 2 high-severity) > Quick Commerce 28,496 -3,512 4-5x ~4,000 - Source: Investor PPT · Aug 2026 · p.138 - **[METRIC] Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) Growth** (NEGATIVE, Risk: MODERATE): In Q4 FY26, management set a quick-commerce ambition of ₹1 lakh crore NOV in the medium term, estimating that 35%–50% annual growth could reach it in 3.5–5 years. It acknowledged that market growth, penetration and the number of competitors make the timing uncertain, and said user growth must improve after a further two quarters of deliberate churn of low-frequency users. The Aug 2026 baseline sets broader FY31 targets for GOV and adjusted EBITDA, making the required execution more explicit and substantial. There is no evidence in this transcript that the targets were achieved; the later plan heightens the execution exposure. (1 intensifying, 2 stable, 2 insufficient_data) > it's a cumulative of weeks and not just a week, and obviously we are starting the quarter on a good balance sheet, as I mentioned, with the retention starting to show up, the returning user base starting to increase. So we are cautiously optimistic of being able to deliver at least on this double-di - Source: Concall Transcript · Aug 2026 · p.10 - **[METRIC] Monthly Transacting Users** (NEGATIVE, Risk: MODERATE): Food-delivery monthly transacting users increased from 16.3 million in Q1 FY26 to 17.2 million in Q2 FY26, with year-over-year growth at 17.2% in Q2 FY26. The company said order growth was the highest in two years and that affordability and new use cases were supporting engagement. This is positive evidence for demand, but the baseline's later figures on infrequent users and potential demand are not directly comparable. The risk therefore shows improvement in the observed quarter, but its longer-term trajectory cannot be established. (2 easing, 3 insufficient_data, 1 high-severity) > Instamart will be a ₹1.5+ Lakh Cr GOV business serving 40+ mn users by 2031 GOV Growth 4-5X from ₹28K Cr in FY26 MTU Growth From 13.3mn in Q4 FY26 3-3.5X Purchase Frequency From 2.8 orders/month in AMJ’26 1.2-1.4X - Source: Investor PPT · Aug 2026 · p.98 - **[METRIC] Order Frequency per Active Customer** (POSITIVE): Recent operating indicators improved: monthly retention rose from 55% in June 2025 to 61% in July 2026; the share of users ordering at least four times a month increased from 20% to 23%; and repeat rate rose from 2.77 to 2.95 between July 2025 and July 2026. These are positive signs, but the FY31 plan still requires 3–3.5 times more monthly users and 1.2–1.4 times higher purchase frequency. The latest evidence indicates this demand risk is easing, though it remains high because the long-term targets are not yet achieved. (1 easing, 1 insufficient_data) > Share of Habituated Users (4+ orders/month) 20.0 Jul’25, 23.0 Jul’26… Repeat Rate Trend… 2.77 Jul’25… 2.95 Jul’26. - Source: Investor PPT · Aug 2026 · p.66 - **[PRINCIPLE] FDI Compliance and Marketplace Model Constraints** (NEGATIVE, Risk: HIGH): Management described inventory ownership as an eventual possibility, conditional on domestic shareholding crossing a threshold; at Q2 FY26, domestic shareholding was above 43% and had more than doubled since listing. The Aug 2026 baseline says the transition still depended on shareholder approval and had not been completed. The concrete evidence therefore shows the transition remained pending, but does not quantify a worsening or easing in regulatory conditions. (2 stable, 1 insufficient_data, 1 high-severity) > 18th August 2026 Shareholder vote at the 13th AGM 2-4 Quarters Instamart’s transition to 1P post-approval - Source: Investor PPT · Aug 2026 · p.141 - **[PRINCIPLE] GMV vs Revenue Recognition** (NEUTRAL): In Q2 FY26, NOV-to-GOV declined to 70%. Management attributed this to a rising non-grocery mix and more free-delivery or loyalty-program orders, and cautioned that the ratio could face some pressure, though it did not expect much further dilution immediately. The Aug 2026 baseline provides no comparable NOV-to-GOV figure, so the change since Q2 FY26 is not measurable. (1 insufficient_data) > NOV to GOV reduction is because, obviously, the non-grocery mix is increasing ... the proportion of Swiggy One and free delivery orders also increased ... there could be some pressure on the NOV to GOV ratio, but not a lot. - Source: Concall Transcript · Nov 2025 · p.20 - **[PRINCIPLE] Last-Mile Logistics Cost Structure** (NEGATIVE, Risk: MODERATE): Food delivery profitability improved through Q2 FY26: adjusted EBITDA rose from ₹192 crore in Q1 FY26 to ₹240 crore, and its margin increased from 2.4% to 2.8% of GOV. Below-contribution costs were ₹385 crore, down from ₹402 crore in Q1 FY26, while consumer service costs were reported as remaining within 5–6% of order value. This indicates the affordability-versus-margin pressure was easing in the latest quarter. The Aug 2026 baseline gives no comparable Toing cost or margin data, so the later state of that specific offer cannot be confirmed. (1 easing, 1 emerging, 1 insufficient_data, 1 stable, 1 high-severity) > Shorter last miles (~2kms avg.) and higher batching on a slower network Lower cost to deliver Lower restaurant commissions More 3P ads Ads monetisation Structural advantages only an incumbent has — making Toing's affordability play work where others can't. - Source: Investor PPT · Aug 2026 · p.37 - **[PRINCIPLE] Unit Economics at Contribution Margin Level** (NEGATIVE, Risk: HIGH): In Q4 FY26, management said quarterly contribution-margin break-even was expected in the following quarter and cited a March exit improvement, monetisation, advertising and operating leverage as drivers. But it declined to give a timeline for EBITDA profitability and said investment choices would depend on market conditions. The Aug 2026 baseline reports contribution margin still slightly negative at -0.2% of GOV and says EBITDA break-even requires a further 4 percentage-point contribution improvement and 2.5 times scale. Thus, despite the earlier stated near-term contribution break-even goal, the later evidence shows the path to operating profitability remains difficult and the risk is worsening. (2 intensifying, 1 easing, 1 stable, 1 insufficient_data, 1 high-severity) > EBITDA breakeven is in sight, needs 2.5x scale and 4pp contribution gain - Source: Investor PPT · Aug 2026 · p.101 - **[TREND] Quick Commerce Disruption** (NEGATIVE, Risk: HIGH): Competition remained intense: management said it had seen no noticeable change in competitive conditions and described seven to eight players expanding rapidly. The company is now willing to operate at a contribution margin between 0% and -1% to support growth, versus -0.2% in the quarter just ended. This is evidence of continued pressure rather than improvement; no earlier-quarter comparison of competitor intensity was provided. (1 intensifying, 3 stable, 1 insufficient_data, 3 high-severity) > Quick Commerce is now a 7 player market…with the initial levers from QC1.0 becoming table stakes - Source: Investor PPT · Aug 2026 · p.69 - **[TREND] Retail Media Advertising Monetization** (NEGATIVE, Risk: HIGH): Swiggy’s low-price food-delivery offer faces a trade-off: it seeks lower restaurant commissions and more advertising income to keep consumer prices low. If restaurants resist lower commissions or advertising revenue does not grow enough, the offer may be difficult to sustain profitably. [MARGIN_COST] (+1 more risk) > INR20 roughly, that is going to come from the monetization side, roughly broken half and half between, say, the product margins that we make from the brands or the mix of our business, as well as roughly, say INR10 from the advertising side of the business. - Source: Concall Transcript · Aug 2026 · p.11 - **[TREND] Value Commerce and Tier-2/3 Penetration** (NEGATIVE, Risk: HIGH): In Q4 FY26, management said the existing food-delivery business reaches about 10% of India's population on an ever-targeted basis and described Toing as an early, unproven attempt to serve infrequent users. The Aug 2026 baseline adds evidence that infrequency is widespread and affordability is a major barrier, but also quantifies the potential demand opportunity. The opportunity and the risk are both clearer later; the transcript does not provide comparable adoption or conversion figures, so the change in realised demand cannot be established. (2 insufficient_data, 1 high-severity) > ~70% Users transact less than once a month Affordability is the biggest barrier 30-40% additional category unlock Affordability unlock can add 5-7pp higher growth - Source: Investor PPT · Aug 2026 · p.34 - Management described a renewed push to accelerate quick-commerce growth, including plans to add more stores this quarter than in the previous four quarters. It also said sequential growth was expected to be at least double-digit, while acknowledging that the remaining-quarter outcome was hard to predict. The faster expansion increases execution demands; the transcript does not provide a comparable update on the group’s long-term targets, so overall target-delivery risk cannot be judged as improving. (1 intensifying, 1 easing, 2 stable, 1 insufficient_data, 2 high-severity) (NEGATIVE, Risk: MODERATE) > Capex per Store 2.2 Cr 2.5 Cr Working Capital 15 Days 12 Days NOV per Year per Store 42 Cr 48 Cr - Source: Investor PPT · Aug 2026 · p.134 ### Scenario Analysis - A crude and fuel shock could increase the cost of delivering orders, although the available research does not establish how much of that cost Swiggy bears rather than its delivery partners. If higher energy and food costs feed through to household budgets, customers may order less often or spend less per order, putting pressure on platform activity and delivery economics. Shipping disruption and higher input costs could also affect restaurant or grocery suppliers indirectly, but no company-specific exposure is documented. Over time, energy-security investment and market rotation toward defensives are broad structural developments, not identified sources of incremental demand for Swiggy. (NEUTRAL) - AI tools are already being used to write code, improve delivery routing and pick-time predictions, forecast inventory, and support restaurant partners. If these applications improve productivity and fulfilment economics, they could reduce operating friction and improve customer and partner experiences; ad targeting also offers a route to greater value from Swiggy’s existing advertising business. The next-order opportunity is a stronger platform and data advantage across Food, Instamart and Dineout, but cross-service personalization and autonomous partner operations remain largely planned. Swiggy is exposed mainly as an AI user, so the evidence points to incremental operational and monetization benefits, not direct participation in the AI infrastructure investment cycle. (POSITIVE) > Building – AI Engineering. 78% of new code is written by AI! ... Quarterly movement · 42% → 78% ... A brand-new product taken from zero to built in just 5 weeks by an engineering team working fully AI-native ... Relaunched and delivered end-to-end by a team of just 6 engineers in ~4 weeks – the whol ## Eternal (BSE:543320) **Sector**: Technology | **Industry**: E-Retail/ E-Commerce ### Management Credibility - **[METRIC] Average Order Value (AOV)** (NEUTRAL): Management expects Blinkit's NAOV to remain broadly within its current range, with no meaningful increase anticipated. (+1 more commitment) > Generally, Aditya, we're not expecting the NAOV to grow from here. If you look at year-on-year, it's flat. That accounts for seasonality for Q1, and we broadly expect NAOVs to remain in the same range. In Q3, they might climb up again because of seasonality, but broadly, we don't think they should m - Source: Concall Transcript · Jul 2026 · p.5 - **[METRIC] Contribution Margin per Order** (NEUTRAL, IN_PROGRESS): Management said half of the expected 1 percentage point inventory-model benefit has already accrued and that the full benefit should accrue over the next six to nine months. The benefit was not expected to exceed 1 percentage point. This updates the previously stated four-to-six-quarter realization window. (3 in progress across 3 tracked commitments) > As we move to 5-6% margin that we are saying we will get to at some point, contribution margin will go up and on a year-on-year basis, we'll see that trend consistently. - Source: Concall Transcript · May 2026 · p.5 - **[METRIC] Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) Growth** (POSITIVE, MET): Food-delivery NOV grew 20.1% year on year in Q1FY27, reaching INR 10,769 crore, and Adjusted EBITDA margin was 5.6% of NOV. Both outcomes fall within the stated growth and margin guidance. (1 met, 4 in progress across 5 tracked commitments) > That said, we do expect YoY growth to inch up gradually towards 20% over time. That will come from two things: modest market share gains, and the compounding effect of persistent focus on affordability and selection. - Source: Investor PPT · Jan 2026 · p.7 - **[METRIC] Monthly Transacting Users (MTU)** (NEUTRAL): Blinkit expects to continue elevated marketing investment in the near term while customer acquisition costs and customer lifetime value remain attractive. > So, till the point that we keep seeing this trend, we will keep investing however much that we can to basically power more growth. So, you should expect this to continue in the next quarter as well. - Source: Concall Transcript · Oct 2025 · p.3 - **[METRIC] Order Frequency per Active Customer** (POSITIVE, MET): The December quarter included the full-quarter impact of lowering the minimum order value for free delivery on Gold orders. Management cited higher ordering frequency among budget-conscious customers as a growth driver. (1 met across 1 tracked commitment) > Full quarter impact of reduction in minimum order value (to INR 99 from INR 199) for free delivery on Gold orders, which led to higher ordering frequency from the more budget-conscious customers. - Source: Investor PPT · Jan 2026 · p.6 - **[PRINCIPLE] FDI Compliance and Marketplace Model Constraints** (POSITIVE, MET): Management confirmed that 90% of the business has shifted to the inventory model and explained that the remaining share includes SKUs better suited to the marketplace model, including slower-moving items and products with a stronger seller ecosystem. (1 met across 1 tracked commitment) > Gaurav, some of that is SKUs that we do want to keep on a marketplace model for different reasons. Some of these might also be related to the fact that these are slower moving and in some cases, there is a more vibrant seller ecosystem ... that contribute to that number. - Source: Concall Transcript · Jan 2026 · p.9 - **[PRINCIPLE] GMV vs Revenue Recognition** (POSITIVE, MET): Blinkit reached the approximately 90% own-inventory level and management said it does not expect the share to increase meaningfully from here. (1 met across 1 tracked commitment) > Sachin, the full benefit should accrue in the next six to nine months, and the benefit will not be more than 1%. - Source: Concall Transcript · Jan 2026 · p.10 - **[PRINCIPLE] Unit Economics at Contribution Margin Level** (NEUTRAL, IN_PROGRESS): The inventory shift was still contributing margin accretion, but management said only more than half of the expected 1 percentage-point benefit had been realized so far. With about 90% of NOV on own inventory, management did not expect that share to rise meaningfully. Full realization remains a forward-looking target. (3 in progress across 3 tracked commitments) > In the long term, in our letter we have mentioned that our confidence on margins going to 5% to 6% of NOV remains high, and we've shared data on a couple of cities in our business where we are already at 5% Adjusted EBITDA margin. - Source: Concall Transcript · Jan 2026 · p.6 - **[TREND] Quick Commerce Disruption** (POSITIVE, EXCEEDED): Blinkit’s Q3FY26 NOV growth remained above the 100% threshold. Management also said growth was 130%+ YoY on a like-for-like basis after adjusting for GST and festive-season effects. (2 exceeded, 1 missed, 1 met, 1 revised across 5 tracked commitments) > It's a function of assortment expansion, geographical expansion as well as more demand densification in the cities where we are present today and we might also get into newer cities. Any sort of intensifying competitive activity isn’t going to last beyond the three-year period that you mentioned. We - Source: Concall Transcript · May 2026 · p.3 - **[TREND] Value Commerce and Tier-2/3 Penetration** (NEUTRAL): Management expects geographic diversification to account for a large part of quick-commerce growth, with the mix of store additions changing over time; no city or regional numerical targets were provided. (+1 more commitment) > That's changing, Sachin. We're not giving specific guidance but increasingly, as we also mentioned in the letter, a large part of our growth will come from geographic diversification so we will see that mix change over time. - Source: Concall Transcript · May 2026 · p.16 - Working-capital days were 14 days currently, below the 18-day ceiling; management described 12 days as its current steady-state estimate. This is better than the earlier limit, with no upward revision. (1 exceeded, 2 met, 1 missed, 1 in progress across 5 tracked commitments) (NEUTRAL, IN_PROGRESS) > We are scaling rapidly and are targeting distribution of 2.5 million additional saplings to be planted across 10,000 acres of land in FY27. - Source: Investor PPT · May 2026 · p.11 ### Business Model - **[METRIC] Average Order Value (AOV)** (NEUTRAL, Change: STABLE): Blinkit's average order value (NAOV) was lower for two consecutive quarters, but management said it remained flat year on year and expects it to stay broadly in the same range. The latest quarter therefore indicates stability, not continued year-on-year contraction. No specific NAOV figures were provided. (1 stable) > Generally, Aditya, we're not expecting the NAOV to grow from here. If you look at year-on-year, it's flat. That accounts for seasonality for Q1, and we broadly expect NAOVs to remain in the same range. - Source: Concall Transcript · Jul 2026 · p.5 - **[METRIC] Contribution Margin per Order** (POSITIVE, Change: EXPANDING): Food delivery profitability strengthened in the latest quarter: adjusted EBITDA rose 11.5% quarter-on-quarter and margin increased to 5.3% of NOV from 5.0%. The company attributed higher revenue per order to advertising, commissions and platform fees, partly offset by lower delivery charges and investment in customer activation. (4 expanding) > Adjusted EBITDA margin (as a % of NOV) reached an all-time high of 5.3% and the business delivered an absolute Adjusted EBITDA of over INR 500 crore for the quarter (vs INR 451 crore in Q1FY26). - Source: Investor PPT · Oct 2025 · p.10 - **[METRIC] Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) Growth** (POSITIVE, Change: EXPANDING): Food-delivery net order value increased from INR 9,757 crore in Q4 FY26 to INR 10,769 crore in Q1 FY27 (+10.4% quarter over quarter), with year-over-year growth accelerating from 18.8% to 20.1%. Adjusted EBITDA rose from INR 532 crore to INR 606 crore, and its margin increased from 5.5% to 5.6% of net order value. (4 expanding) > Food delivery NOV: Q4FY26 INR 9,757 crore; Q1FY27 INR 10,769 crore; QoQ change 10.4%; YoY growth increased from 18.8% to 20.1%. Adjusted EBITDA increased from INR 532 crore (5.5% of NOV) to INR 606 crore (5.6% of NOV). - Source: Investor PPT · Jul 2026 · p.8 - **[METRIC] Monthly Transacting Users (MTU)** (POSITIVE, Change: EXPANDING): Marketing investment rose sharply in Q2 FY26 as Blinkit pursued new customers: management said spend was four times higher year over year and 40% higher quarter over quarter, with most of it directed to acquiring new users. This is evidence of an earlier growth push, but the July 2026 baseline does not give comparable marketing-spend or user-addition figures, so no later-period direction can be established. (5 expanding across 1 engine) > On food delivery, the increase in MTUs is a combination of both. We've seen acceleration in new users that we've added to our platform in the last three or four quarters. This is a function of the category growing as well as more customers transacting more frequently. Both of them are playing a part - Source: Concall Transcript · Jul 2026 · p.5 - **[METRIC] Order Frequency per Active Customer** (POSITIVE, Change: EXPANDING): Management described food-delivery order growth of 15% year over year and said the business was growing around 19–20% in the Q4 FY26 discussion. In the later Q1 FY27 baseline, management reported customer growth from both new users and higher ordering frequency, but provided no comparable growth rate; direction and percentage change therefore cannot be established. (1 stable, 1 expanding) > in food, order growth was 15% YoY ... we've seen ... acceleration in new customer addition - Source: Concall Transcript · May 2026 · p.13 - **[PRINCIPLE] GMV vs Revenue Recognition** (POSITIVE, Change: SHIFTED): Blinkit's business shifted from primarily earning marketplace commissions to owning most of the goods it sells. Own-inventory orders represented about 80% of NOV in Q2 FY26, with management expecting this to reach about 90% in Q3 FY26. The change lifted gross profit from 23.6% to 26.8% of NOV quarter-on-quarter, while the reported adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed from Rs. 162 crore to Rs. 156 crore. Management expects the model change to add about 1 percentage point to margin over 4–6 quarters. This is a favorable shift in how revenue and margin are generated, although Blinkit remained loss-making and continued to invest heavily in growth. (3 shifted across 1 engine) > Revenue 15,664 [...] YoY % change 552.7% [...] Adjusted EBITDA 102 [...] as a % of NOV 0.6% [...] On a like-for-like (“LFL”) basis, quick commerce Revenue grew [...] 117% YoY (22% QoQ) in Q1FY27. - Source: Investor PPT · Jul 2026 · p.9 - **[PRINCIPLE] Unit Economics at Contribution Margin Level** (POSITIVE, Change: EXPANDING): Quick-commerce adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed from Rs. 162 crore in Q1 FY26 to Rs. 156 crore in Q2 FY26, and the loss margin improved from 1.8% to 1.3% of NOV. The improvement was positive but slower than management had expected because Blinkit increased marketing, customer-value offers, store openings and supply-chain capacity to pursue growth. (2 expanding, 1 contracting) > Adjusted EBITDA margin (as a % of NOV) continued to improve QoQ to -1.3% from -1.8% in Q1FY26. The pace of margin improvement was slower than what we had anticipated ... because of additional investments in market share growth. - Source: Investor PPT · Oct 2025 · p.5 - **[TREND] Quick Commerce Disruption** (POSITIVE, Change: EXPANDING): Blinkit had about 1,800 stores in Q2 FY26 and planned to reach 3,000 by March 2027. The later July 2026 baseline reports 2,443 stores, an increase of about 35.7% from the Q2 FY26 footprint. This indicates an expanding scale advantage, although the baseline does not provide a directly comparable city count or store-level economics. (5 expanding) > Today, we operate about 19 million sqft. of store and warehousing space across 300+ cities. We've invested ~INR 3,000 crore capex over the past four years to build this network, and as we continue to expand, the investments will continue. This is the most critical building block of our business and - Source: Investor PPT · Jul 2026 · p.4 - **[TREND] Value Commerce and Tier-2/3 Penetration** (NEUTRAL, Change: STABLE): In Q2 FY26, more than 70–75% of Blinkit store additions were in the top 10 cities. The July 2026 baseline says most growth came from existing cities, but gives no comparable store-addition split or city-level revenue mix. The figures describe continued concentration in established markets, but do not establish a measurable geographic shift. (1 stable, 1 shifted) > More than 70-75% of our store addition continues to be in the top 10 cities. - Source: Concall Transcript · Oct 2025 · p.11 - Going-out NOV increased 2% quarter-on-quarter and 32% year-on-year to Rs. 2,063 crore in Q2 FY26. However, the growth rate was lower than the 95% reported in Q1 FY26, while adjusted EBITDA loss widened from Rs. 54 crore to Rs. 63 crore and margin weakened from -2.7% to -3.1% of NOV. The company continued investing in category creation and added a stores-discovery category; it also launched District in the UAE. The business is growing, but profitability is worsening as it invests. (5 expanding across 5 engines) (POSITIVE, Change: EXPANDING) > Most of it is from existing cities. - Source: Concall Transcript · Jul 2026 · p.3 ### Future Growth - **[METRIC] Contribution Margin per Order** (NEUTRAL): Blinkit’s long-term margin outlook improved: management raised its expected margin outcome to 6%, attributing the confidence to higher investment per store, larger stores, and better operating efficiency. This is a forward-looking margin target, not the current margin. — Blinkit long-term margin: Guidance moved from a 5–6% range to 6%; change in percentage points not specified > What we're trying to communicate here is that over time, we have increased the capex per store in our business and some of these investments are leading to increase in efficiency in the business. It's also a function of increase in average store sizes, etc. All these investments are clearly lining u - Source: Concall Transcript · Jul 2026 · p.3 - **[METRIC] Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) Growth** (POSITIVE, Trend: ACCELERATING): Food-delivery NOV increased from Rs. 8,443 crore in Q3 FY25 to Rs. 9,846 crore in Q3 FY26. Its YoY growth rate accelerated in the latest quarter, rising from a low of 13.1% in Q1 FY26 to 13.8% in Q2 and 16.6% in Q3. Management expects growth to inch gradually toward 20%, driven by affordability, selection, and modest market-share gains—not a sudden demand surge. (5 accelerating across 5 signals, 1 leading indicator) > you did deliver 21% QoQ volume growth - Source: Concall Transcript · Jul 2026 · p.6 - **[METRIC] Monthly Transacting Users (MTU)** (POSITIVE, Trend: ACCELERATING): Monthly food-delivery transacting customers increased for a fifth consecutive quarter, from 20.5 million in Q3 FY25 to 24.9 million in Q3 FY26. Growth has been steady-to-accelerating recently: the latest quarter added 0.8 million customers versus 0.7 million in Q2 FY26. The letter also says average monthly transacting customers grew 21% YoY, but does not quantify order frequency. (3 accelerating, 1 steady across 4 signals) > You already have a number of MTUs, which is comfortably over 30 million. ... our tracker is customer retention, which is better than what it has been. - Source: Concall Transcript · Jul 2026 · p.10 - **[METRIC] Order Frequency per Active Customer** (POSITIVE, Trend: NEW_TREND): Management expects food-delivery growth to improve gradually, but the transcript provides no quarter-by-quarter customer-addition or order-frequency figures. The prior signal’s claimed multi-quarter acceleration cannot be verified from this document. (2 new trend across 2 signals) > We've seen acceleration in new users that we've added to our platform in the last three or four quarters. This is a function of the category growing as well as more customers transacting more frequently. Both of them are playing a part in the growth in MTUs which you are seeing, which is driving gro - Source: Concall Transcript · Jul 2026 · p.5 - **[PRINCIPLE] Unit Economics at Contribution Margin Level** (NEUTRAL): Blinkit’s profitability is improving while it expands: adjusted EBITDA rose to Rs. 102 crore, or 0.6% of NOV, after losses in the year-ago quarter. Its margin has improved for five consecutive quarters, although it remains well below the company’s stated steady-state assumption of a 6% adjusted EBITDA margin. — Blinkit adjusted EBITDA margin: Improved by 2.4 percentage points year over year from -1.8% in Q1 FY26; fifth consecutive quarterly improvement > Adjusted EBITDA ... 102 ... as a % of NOV ... 0.6% ... Q1FY26 -1.8% ... Q1FY27 0.6%. - Source: Investor PPT · Jul 2026 · p.9 - **[TREND] Quick Commerce Disruption** (NEGATIVE, Trend: DECELERATING): Blinkit NOV grew to Rs. 11,679 crore in Q2 FY26, up 137% year over year and 27% quarter over quarter. Year-over-year growth has accelerated in each of the last three reported quarters, from 107% to 121%, 127%, and 137%. The latest figures show a strong, accelerating growth trajectory. (2 accelerating, 2 decelerating, 1 new trend across 5 signals, 1 leading indicator) > Quick commerce 17,132 ... QoQ change 19.1% ... YoY change 86.2%. - Source: Investor PPT · Jul 2026 · p.9 - **[TREND] Value Commerce and Tier-2/3 Penetration** (NEUTRAL): Eternal is expanding Blinkit’s product range and reach: it reports assortment expansion in its eight largest cities and geographic expansion into the next 30 cities. It also plans to introduce curated premium-brand “gourmet” stores in selected locations in the eight largest cities; no rollout date or sales target is given. > This quarter, we continued to make progress on assortment expansion in the top eight cities and geographic expansion in the next 30. Going forward, premiumisation through launch of ‘gourmet’ stores in select locations in top eight cities will also contribute to assortment expansion on the platform. - Source: Investor PPT · Jul 2026 · p.5 - District NOV rose in each quarter, but year-over-year growth decelerated sharply from 122.2% in Q4 FY25 to 19.9% in Q3 FY26 before rebounding to 46.5% in Q4 FY26. The latest quarter is a meaningful improvement, but the series is uneven and does not yet erase the broader slowdown from the earlier high growth rates. FY26 growth was 42% for the full year, according to management. (1 accelerating, 1 decelerating, 3 new trend across 5 signals, 4 leading indicators) (NEGATIVE, Trend: DECELERATING) > Today, District generates visibility and business for 45,000+ restaurants, 5,000+ movie screens, 6,000+ retail stores, 7,500+ events (music concerts, comedy shows, sports events, etc) and 2,000+ activity outlets (theme parks, sports facilities, kids play areas etc). - Source: Investor PPT · Jul 2026 · p.7 ### Risk Assessment - **[CATALYST] GST E-Commerce Operator Compliance** (NEUTRAL, Risk: MODERATE): Eternal faces disputed GST demands on customer delivery charges. An adverse outcome could mean payment of the assessed tax plus interest and penalties, though the company says it is contesting the matter and has a strong case. [REGULATORY] > Orders for October 2019 to March 2022 for all the States for INR 420 crore ... Orders for April 2022 to March 2024 for Andhra Pradesh for INR 14 crore ... SCN for April 2022 to March 2023 for Gujarat for INR 13 crore. ... The SCNs and Orders require the Company to pay GST on the delivery charges col - Source: Investor PPT · Jul 2026 · p.27 - **[METRIC] Average Order Value (AOV)** (NEUTRAL, Risk: MODERATE): In Q2 FY26, quick-commerce NOV grew 137% year on year and monthly transacting customers reached 20.8 million, but net average order value was INR 524 and down 1% year on year. Management also said discounts increasingly made gross order value a misleading growth measure. The July 2026 baseline says growth relies heavily on increasing order frequency while average order value is expected to remain broadly flat. The core risk is therefore still present; the older period gives no evidence of a material easing. (2 stable) > Generally, Aditya, we're not expecting the NAOV to grow from here. If you look at year-on-year, it's flat. That accounts for seasonality for Q1, and we broadly expect NAOVs to remain in the same range. - Source: Concall Transcript · Jul 2026 · p.6 - **[METRIC] Contribution Margin per Order** (NEGATIVE, Risk: MODERATE): In Q2 FY26, Blinkit's gross profit margin rose by 300 basis points, but management said higher supply-chain costs, including first-mile costs shifted from sellers to Blinkit, prevented the full increase from reaching contribution margin. Management expected the net benefit from the model change to build over four to six quarters. The Jul 2026 baseline identifies continuing operating-cost pressures, but provides no directly comparable measure of the inventory-transition cost or its realized benefit. The direction of this specific risk versus the baseline is therefore unclear. (1 insufficient_data, 2 intensifying, 1 easing, 1 stable) > Inventory losses for us are about 1.8% of NOV right now, which include losses on account of expiry, shrinkage, damage, loss in transit or pilferage. A large part of these losses are driven by perishable products (including fruits and vegetables) which is an important and large category for us in the - Source: Investor PPT · Jul 2026 · p.6 - **[METRIC] Monthly Transacting Users (MTU)** (NEUTRAL): Management said Blinkit's marketing spend was four times higher year on year and 40% higher quarter on quarter, alongside rapid user additions. It expected elevated spending to continue in the near term, while saying the spend was mostly for new customers and should benefit from some operating leverage. The Jul 2026 baseline does not give a comparable marketing-spend figure or customer-acquisition trend, so the change in this risk cannot be assessed against the later period. (1 insufficient_data) > “the QC marketing spends went up 4x YoY, and I think 40% QoQ”; “It's mostly new user acquisition”; “Ideally, there should be some operating leverage there.” (p. 15) - Source: Concall Transcript · Oct 2025 · p.15 - **[METRIC] Order Frequency per Active Customer** (POSITIVE): Demand indicators improved across the periods shown: Blinkit NOV grew 86.2% year on year in Q1FY27, orders increased from 176.7 million in Q1FY26 to 331.0 million in Q1FY27, and monthly transacting customers rose from 16.9 million to 31.8 million. However, net average order value fell from INR 521 to INR 518 year on year, and management says growth efforts include expanding assortment and geography. The strong order and customer growth eases the near-term demand risk, while the slightly lower basket value remains a constraint. (1 easing, 1 stable, 3 insufficient_data) > Orders 176.7 ... 331.0; Net average order value (NAOV) (INR) 521 ... 518; Average monthly transacting customers 16.9 ... 31.8 - Source: Investor PPT · Jul 2026 · p.9 - **[PRINCIPLE] GMV vs Revenue Recognition** (NEUTRAL, Risk: MODERATE): Blinkit's 1P model means the company owns and sells inventory, unlike a marketplace that mainly earns commission. This changes reported revenue substantially, so headline revenue growth can overstate the underlying like-for-like growth and complicate comparisons. [GOVERNANCE] > Sharp increase in YoY Adjusted Revenue growth mainly due to shift to 1P model in quick commerce, where Revenue now also includes the full monetary value of goods sold (versus largely marketplace commission in Q1FY26). - Source: Investor PPT · Jul 2026 · p.3 - **[PRINCIPLE] Last-Mile Logistics Cost Structure** (NEUTRAL): Management identified higher minimum wages in several states, summer-related last-mile costs, and lower contribution from newly opened larger stores as current pressures. It said year-on-year gross-profit improvement largely translated into higher contribution, but gave no earlier comparable cost figures or evidence that these pressures have eased overall. (1 stable) > There was some increase in the cost of doing business in the quarter because there were a lot of states which implemented increase in minimum wage. ... In Q1, the last mile costs are usually higher because of summer and heat and various other factors. - Source: Concall Transcript · Jul 2026 · p.6 - **[PRINCIPLE] Unit Economics at Contribution Margin Level** (NEGATIVE, Risk: MODERATE): The Q2 FY26 call described an ambitious expansion plan: about 2,100 stores by the December quarter and 3,000 by March 2027, with NOV growth expected to remain above 100% for one to two years. Management said the market opportunity and smaller-city potential were not yet proven, that building supply-chain depth was substantial, and that expansion pace could be adjusted to prioritize efficiency. The Jul 2026 baseline subsequently quantifies substantial working capital and capex commitments and notes that investment per store assumptions increased. The risk intensified as the later period makes the capital commitment more concrete and larger. (5 intensifying) > There was some increase in the cost of doing business in the quarter because there were a lot of states which implemented increase in minimum wage. That was one factor. Also, we are opening larger stores. So, some of the contribution is also impacted by the earlier stages of these stores, as the con - Source: Concall Transcript · Jul 2026 · p.7 - **[TREND] Quick Commerce Disruption** (NEGATIVE, Risk: HIGH): In Q2 FY26, management said Blinkit's increased marketing was mainly to acquire new customers at a reasonable cost and was not driven by a material change in competitive intensity. It also said competitive conditions remained an assumption behind its near-term outlook. This is earlier evidence than the Jul 2026 baseline, which reports much more intense competition, rival subsidies, and pressure on order values. The risk therefore worsened from the earlier period to the latest baseline. (5 intensifying, 3 high-severity) > Some of it can also just be related to lower product prices because there is a lot of competitive intensity, which also forces us to price match and a lot of things. Those can also have an impact on lower NAOV. - Source: Concall Transcript · Jul 2026 · p.5 - **[TREND] Value Commerce and Tier-2/3 Penetration** (NEUTRAL): In Q2 FY26, management said more than 70–75% of store additions were still in the top 10 cities. It noted that smaller cities had multiple times fewer products than major cities because the supply-chain depth was not yet in place, and said it would wait for proof points before expanding further. The Jul 2026 baseline provides no comparable assessment of smaller-city assortment or expansion outcomes, so no later change can be established. (1 insufficient_data) > “more than 70-75% of our store addition continues to be in the top 10 cities”; “the availability of assortment to customers is multiple times lower” in tier 2 and tier 3 cities because “the supply chain depth needed to make those products available is not there.” (pp. 12, 17) - Source: Concall Transcript · Oct 2025 · p.12 - In Jan 2026, management said capex per store was likely to rise because of automation, larger stores and warehouse infrastructure, while working capital was expected to remain within 18 days and management targeted ROCE above 40%. The Jul 2026 baseline reports a higher steady-state capex assumption of INR 2.5 crore per store, about INR 700 crore of quarterly capex, and INR 2,545 crore of net working capital at Q1FY27 end; it also notes that the return estimate relies on evolving assumptions. The later evidence indicates increased capital intensity and greater exposure to execution and return assumptions. Management's Jan confidence on working-capital limits and returns is a mitigation, not evidence that the later capital risk has eased. (5 intensifying) (NEGATIVE, Risk: MODERATE) > We should look at this number more longer-term because there is a lumpiness in investment here because while we are presenting the information as capex per store, a large part of the capex is in warehousing and that investment is lumpy. - Source: Concall Transcript · Jul 2026 · p.7 ### Scenario Analysis - The clearest first-order effect is investment in Nugget, an enterprise AI product, with costs described as largely manpower; management also attributes much of the quarter-on-quarter increase in Others segment losses to Nugget R&D. If Nugget attracts customers and revenue, this cost could develop into a new revenue stream, but no sales, customer, adoption, or return figures show that this has happened yet. Separately, AI assistants could eventually divert consumers from Eternal’s apps, a risk management has previously acknowledged but judged early; there is no evidence that this has yet changed customer behavior. The third-order outcome is therefore uncertain: Nugget could become a useful new business, while platform disintermediation could pressure Eternal’s customer access, but neither structural shift is established by the available evidence. (NEUTRAL) > The QoQ increase this quarter was largely driven by R&D investments in Nugget as we scale our AI product capabilities. Think of this segment as the cost of experimentation - finding potential new businesses for Eternal beyond the four that exist today. We'll invest meaningfully but with discipline, - The conflict can raise India's fuel and transport costs and contribute to inflation; Eternal does not directly procure crude or LNG, but its delivery fleet, Blinkit logistics network and restaurant partners are exposed downstream. Higher delivery and replenishment costs could pressure margins, while LPG disruptions can reduce the number of operating restaurants; management says prior cost increases were generally passed on without much demand impact, but that does not guarantee the same outcome in a larger or prolonged shock. Blinkit's expanding store and warehousing footprint and inventory-owning model may increase the scale of logistics and working-capital exposure. Over time, the broader shift toward energy security and supply-chain resilience could raise costs or change sourcing requirements, but no specific structural tailwind for Eternal is established. (NEUTRAL) > It's a little bit of an impact from the LPG situation in the country last quarter because of which some restaurants went offline. That's why you probably see a slight dip in the monthly active restaurant count. --- *Generated by [ThesisLoop](https://thesisloop.ai) — AI investment research for Indian equities.* > AI-generated research for informational and educational purposes only — not personalized investment advice, a stock recommendation, or a guarantee of returns. ThesisLoop is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser or research analyst. Do your own diligence and consult a registered professional before making any investment decision.