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MOIL
Our verdict on MOIL isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
Management reported that the cost of production at the factory gate was approximately INR 5,500 per ton in FY 2024-25 and is expected to reduce to around INR 5,300-5,400 (implied by '53 something') in the current year, aligning with the reduction target. (1 met across 1 tracked commitment)
“So if you take just same values, increase by 12%, 14%, 15%, you will get around 6%, 7% of reduction in production cost on year-to-year basis per ton.”
Management confirmed they explored approximately 1,07,000 meters in FY 2024-25, meeting the 1 lakh meter target. (1 met across 1 tracked commitment)
“We are targeting around 1 lakh metres to be explored and further we will add to our reserves and resources in the current financial year.”
See the full cited Management analysis of MOIL
How durable is the business?
Revenue from manganese ore operations grew by 8% year-over-year, reaching a record turnover of ₹1,449.42 crore, driven by record production and sales volumes despite a 15% drop in average sales realization. (5 expanding across 1 engine)
“For the financial year '25-'26, MOIL has achieved total revenue from operation of INR1,056 crores against INR1,152 crores... We have also achieved 10.84 lakh tons of sale of manganese ore against 11.40 lakh tons.”
MOIL achieved its highest ever production of 17.56 lakh tonnes, a 35% increase, significantly expanding its operational scale to meet the National Steel Policy's long-term demand projections. (5 expanding)
“Your Company has achieved highest ever production of manganese ore since its inception at 17.56 lakhs tonnes, 34.87% higher than FY’23.”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of MOIL
Where does growth come from?
Sales of low-grade ore are accelerating significantly due to new export channels and the company's appointment as a state trading enterprise, with low-grade sales growth consistently hitting 50% annually. (1 accelerating across 1 signal)
“In fact, government had appointed MOIL as the state trading enterprise for all exports of manganese ore from the country... we have already exported three shipments.”
Exploration activity is accelerating significantly, with Q1 FY25 drilling already reaching 30,000 meters, putting the company on track to exceed its annual target of 100,000 meters. (4 accelerating across 4 signals)
“Increase in Mn resource base of MOIL by 16.07 million tonnes in FY24-25. ... 2024-25 1,07,530”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of MOIL
What could break the thesis?
NSR risk remains high as average sales realization dropped 15% from INR 10,422 per MT to INR 8,849 per MT. Despite record production, the lower realization pressured margins. (2 intensifying, 3 easing, 2 high-severity)
“The profit before tax is around INR223 crores against INR362 crores... This is basically due to fall in the NSR, which is not controlled by MOIL. It is usually controlled by the demand of steel and LME”
The risk is STABLE. MOIL's future outlook is explicitly tied to the National Steel Policy 2017, targeting 300 million MT of steel production by 2030, which reinforces the high concentration risk to a single end-use sector. (2 stable, 1 high-severity)
“METALLURGICAL 95-96%... Manganese Ore, a key ingredient in steel making”
See the full cited Risk analysis of MOIL
Read the full thesis on MOIL
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