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Antony Waste han
Our verdict on Antony Waste han isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
The company reported an EBITDA margin of 18.4% for Q3 FY26, which is significantly below the guided range of 22.5% to 23%. Management attributed this to higher employee costs from annual appraisals and incremental manpower additions. (1 missed, 1 met across 2 tracked commitments)
“We expect these things to improve in the second half of the financial year.”
Management is now taking a 'slower' approach to the auto scrapping and tyre recycling business due to market maturity and margin concerns, indicating a delay in the previously expected timeline. (1 revised, 1 in progress across 2 tracked commitments)
“As of now, the contribution of C&D business is 5%. We expect this to at least double in the next financial year.”
The PCMC WTE plant experienced an 82-day shutdown for technical modifications during the quarter, leading to lower power sales and a drop in PLF. The plant only resumed operations on December 18. (1 missed across 1 tracked commitment)
“So, normally, if you look at an average PLF that we are targeting, it should be upwards of 88%-90% is what we look at.”
The EBITDA margin for Q3FY26 was 18.4%, significantly below the guided sustainable range of 22.5% to 23%. The 9MFY26 margin also stood lower at 21.4%. (1 missed across 1 tracked commitment)
“We expect the entire project to be completed in 6 to 8 months and realize the revenue in by, let's say, December of 2026.”
Management is targeting the bio-mining segment to reclaim legacy dump sites across Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities. (+3 more commitments)
“Focus on Bio mining which can be used to reclaim dump sites in Tier 1 & Tier 2 cities which has huge potential w.r.t number of dump sites over last 15 years”
See the full cited Management analysis of Antony Waste han
How durable is the business?
The company is diversifying its technical capabilities into Construction and Demolition (C&D) waste recycling, achieving a 96% recycling rate. (1 expanding)
“Our Construction and Demolition Waste Recycling Facility also continued to operate efficiently, achieving an industry-leading recycling rate of 96%.”
The moat has strengthened with the successful operationalization of Maharashtra's 1st Integrated Waste-to-Energy (WtE) project. The plant achieved a high Plant Load Factor (PLF) of ~90% in Q4, demonstrating technical maturity. (5 expanding across 1 engine)
“Contract & Others: 29.4 (Q3FY26) vs 28.2 (Q3FY25)”
The company's contract backlog remains robust, providing long-term revenue visibility with a significant portion of contracts extending to 2040. (3 stable, 2 expanding)
“Average ongoing contract durations (in years): Waste Processing 23... MSW C&T 7.7”
The company's regulatory moat is stable and long-term, with waste processing contracts averaging 23 years. The business is further de-risked by built-in price escalations and a focus on municipal corporations with strong credit ratings. (2 stable, 1 expanding)
“Average on-going contract duration is 23 years [for MSW Processing]”
This segment saw a contraction in revenue share from 14% to 12% and a decline in absolute revenue. This is likely due to the completion of certain DBOOT project phases or shifts in mechanical sweeping contract cycles. (3 contracting, 1 expanding, 1 stable)
“Leading Player in SWM Industry... Operates Largest Single location waste processing plant in Asia... 25+ Municipal Corps & conglomerate worked, since inception”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Antony Waste han
Where does growth come from?
Operating revenue growth is accelerating, moving from 15% for the first half of the year to 16% in the most recent quarter. (1 accelerating across 1 signal, 1 leading indicator)
“This robust platform supports our revenue growth target of 20% CAGR. Moreover, as higher value pursuing contracts gain traction... we anticipate an improved margin profile of around 20% to 23% going forward”
Antony Waste is targeting the 'Bio-mining' market to clean up old dumpsites, identifying it as a significant growth area with thousands of sites across India needing remediation.
“Focused on bio-mining segment aimed at reclaiming legacy dump sites across Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities, which present significant potential given the large number of sites accumulated over the past 15 years”
The company is diversifying into non-municipal business areas, such as 'Click-to-clean' (B2C) and the Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) market to reduce dependency on government contracts.
“the Board is also cognizant of the fact of moving significantly away from the municipality-only business. So we are looking at non-municipal businesses like getting into Click-to-clean business, which is a more of a B2C kind of an area. We are looking at EPR market.”
Construction and Demolition (C&D) waste volumes are currently in a recovery phase following a seasonal dip due to the monsoon, with a clear path to return to 350+ tons per day. (1 steady across 1 signal)
“Green Units generated through PCMC WTE Plant Q3FY26 / 9MFY26 ~2.53 Mn+ Units / ~44.22 Mn+ Units”
Revenue growth is accelerating, with the most recent quarter (Q4 FY25) showing a significant jump to ₹250 Cr compared to the previous year's quarterly average. (2 accelerating, 3 steady across 5 signals)
“Total Revenue 269.3 249.2 8%”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Antony Waste han
What could break the thesis?
A Bombay High Court order on May 2, 2025, set aside the forest denotification for the Kanjurmarg site, potentially halting operations within 3 months. (3 intensifying, 2 easing, 3 high-severity)
“Debtor Days ... Q3 FY26 115”
INTENSIFYING. Management confirmed a 14% year-on-year increase in the wage bill due to aggressive hiring for talent, though they maintain it is stable as a percentage of total revenue (31%). (3 intensifying, 2 easing, 1 high-severity)
“EBITDA Margin 18.4% 23.5% (15%)”
Management confirmed that one Mumbai C&T contract (3% of revenue) expires in Dec 2025, but they have already bid for the renewal. Kanjurmarg visibility is secured by the legal stay. (2 stable)
“Balance Tenure ~11 Years”
This remains a structural risk for the business model, specifically noted in the bidding process for landfill projects. (1 stable)
“For projects involving landfills, requirement of restoring the land to its original condition at company’s own cost”
The company is expanding its WTE footprint with two new projects in Andhra Pradesh (Kadapa and Kurnool). These involve high upfront capex (~Rs. 600-650 Cr) and a 24-month construction period, delaying revenue until FY29. (1 intensifying, 4 easing)
“PCMC to purchase power at ₹ 5 per unit during concession period”
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Antony Waste han analysis by filing period
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