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Antony Waste han
Our verdict on Antony Waste han isn’t the consensus take — see where we landed, and the one risk the bull case glosses over.
See the verdict — free →Does management do what it says?
The company reaffirms the estimated CO2 savings of ~7 lakh tonnes annually for the PCMC WTE project. (2 met across 2 tracked commitments)
“Project is estimated to save ~7 lakh Tonnes of CO2 annually, equivalent to ~1.5 lakh passenger cars' emissions.”
Total operating revenue grew by 9% Y-o-Y in Q3FY26 and 12% Y-o-Y for 9MFY26, meeting and exceeding the guided range. (1 met across 1 tracked commitment)
“Total operating Revenue 239.9 (Q3FY26) 221.0 (Q3FY25) 9%”
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How durable is the business?
The company is expanding its footprint beyond its traditional strongholds in Mumbai and Delhi, specifically targeting Southern and Eastern India with a massive Rs. 3,200 crore WtE win in Andhra Pradesh. (1 expanding)
“Furthermore, we are delighted to share that we have secured two new Waste to Energy projects in Andhra Pradesh with a combined value of around Rs.3,200 crores.”
The company's technical moat is strengthening through high operational efficiency at its Waste-to-Energy (WtE) plant, achieving a plant load factor (PLF) significantly above industry norms. (1 expanding)
“achieving a remarkable plant load factor of approximately 90%, a significant increase from 76% in the preceding quarter.”
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Where does growth come from?
The company has secured a massive new growth lever with two Waste to Energy (WtE) projects in Andhra Pradesh, providing long-term revenue visibility over 20 years. (1 new trend across 1 signal, 2 leading indicators)
“Awarded WTE project at Kadapa & Kurnool, Andhra Pradesh”
The processing division is accelerating, with revenue reaching Rs. 72 crores in Q1 FY26, a 17% growth compared to the previous 12% growth rate. Its contribution to total revenue rose from 26% to 28%. (1 accelerating across 1 signal)
“Revenue from MSW Processing 65.5 58.3 12%”
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What could break the thesis?
A Bombay High Court order on May 2, 2025, set aside the forest denotification for the Kanjurmarg site, potentially halting operations within 3 months. (3 intensifying, 2 easing, 3 high-severity)
“Debtor Days ... Q3 FY26 115”
INTENSIFYING. Management confirmed a 14% year-on-year increase in the wage bill due to aggressive hiring for talent, though they maintain it is stable as a percentage of total revenue (31%). (3 intensifying, 2 easing, 1 high-severity)
“EBITDA Margin 18.4% 23.5% (15%)”
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