AI-generated · cited to primary sources · not investment advice
Antony Waste han (543254) Feb 2026 Filing Analysis
Does management do what it says?
Total operating revenue grew by 9% Y-o-Y in Q3FY26 and 12% Y-o-Y for 9MFY26, meeting and exceeding the guided range. (1 met across 1 tracked commitment)
“Total operating Revenue 239.9 (Q3FY26) 221.0 (Q3FY25) 9%”
The PCMC WTE plant generated ~41 Mn+ units in Q2 FY26 and ~66 Mn+ units in H1 FY26, indicating active operations and power sales to the municipality. (1 in progress across 1 tracked commitment)
“The planned construction period is 24 months, and the projects are expected to commence revenue generation from FY '29 onwards for the next 20 years.”
Management is now taking a 'slower' approach to the auto scrapping and tyre recycling business due to market maturity and margin concerns, indicating a delay in the previously expected timeline. (1 revised, 1 in progress across 2 tracked commitments)
“As of now, the contribution of C&D business is 5%. We expect this to at least double in the next financial year.”
The EBITDA margin for Q3FY26 was 18.4%, significantly below the guided sustainable range of 22.5% to 23%. The 9MFY26 margin also stood lower at 21.4%. (1 missed across 1 tracked commitment)
“We expect the entire project to be completed in 6 to 8 months and realize the revenue in by, let's say, December of 2026.”
The company anticipates an improved EBITDA margin profile of 20% to 23% going forward. — target: 20% to 23% (+4 more commitments)
“Moreover, as higher value pursuing contracts gain traction and rising demand for scientific-based remediation and circular economy solutions, we anticipate an improved margin profile of around 20% to 23% going forward as well.”
See the full cited Management analysis of Antony Waste han
How durable is the business?
The C&T segment remains the dominant revenue engine, growing 4% year-on-year in FY25. While its revenue share slightly dipped from 62% to 61%, it maintains a massive fleet of 2,514 vehicles and 17 ongoing contracts. (5 expanding across 1 engine)
“Revenue from MSW C&T: 174.5 (Q3FY26) vs 162.7 (Q3FY25), Y-o-Y 7%”
The processing segment is expanding rapidly, driven by the Waste-to-Energy plant and new bio-mining projects, increasing its contribution to the total revenue mix. (5 expanding across 1 engine)
“Revenue from MSW Processing: 65.5 (Q3FY26) vs 58.3 (Q3FY25), Y-o-Y 12%”
The moat has strengthened with the successful operationalization of Maharashtra's 1st Integrated Waste-to-Energy (WtE) project. The plant achieved a high Plant Load Factor (PLF) of ~90% in Q4, demonstrating technical maturity. (5 expanding across 1 engine)
“Contract & Others: 29.4 (Q3FY26) vs 28.2 (Q3FY25)”
The company's contract backlog remains robust, providing long-term revenue visibility with a significant portion of contracts extending to 2040. (3 stable, 2 expanding)
“Average ongoing contract durations (in years): Waste Processing 23... MSW C&T 7.7”
This segment saw a contraction in revenue share from 14% to 12% and a decline in absolute revenue. This is likely due to the completion of certain DBOOT project phases or shifts in mechanical sweeping contract cycles. (3 contracting, 1 expanding, 1 stable)
“Leading Player in SWM Industry... Operates Largest Single location waste processing plant in Asia... 25+ Municipal Corps & conglomerate worked, since inception”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Antony Waste han
Where does growth come from?
The company has secured a massive new growth lever with two Waste to Energy (WtE) projects in Andhra Pradesh, providing long-term revenue visibility over 20 years. (1 new trend across 1 signal, 2 leading indicators)
“Awarded WTE project at Kadapa & Kurnool, Andhra Pradesh”
The processing division is accelerating, with revenue reaching Rs. 72 crores in Q1 FY26, a 17% growth compared to the previous 12% growth rate. Its contribution to total revenue rose from 26% to 28%. (1 accelerating across 1 signal)
“Revenue from MSW Processing 65.5 58.3 12%”
The processing segment is accelerating significantly, outperforming the core collection business. Revenue growth for this segment jumped from 25% for the full year to 48% in the final quarter. (5 accelerating across 5 signals)
“Sale of Refuse Derived Fuel Q3FY26 / 9MFY26 ~37,840 Tonnes / ~1,33,661 Tonnes”
The Construction and Demolition (C&D) waste segment is entering a rapid ramp-up phase. Daily processing volumes are expected to more than double in the next six months. (3 accelerating, 1 decelerating, 1 new trend across 5 signals)
“As of now, the contribution of C&D business is 5%. We expect this to at least double in the next financial year... because there are policy changes which the client is doing now, because of which we expect the revenues to grow sharply”
A major new trend in geographic expansion within Mumbai, increasing ward coverage from 2 to 7, which provides long-term annuity-like revenue visibility. (1 new trend, 4 steady across 5 signals)
“Average ongoing contract durations (in years) ... Waste Processing 23”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Antony Waste han
What could break the thesis?
A Bombay High Court order on May 2, 2025, set aside the forest denotification for the Kanjurmarg site, potentially halting operations within 3 months. (3 intensifying, 2 easing, 3 high-severity)
“Debtor Days ... Q3 FY26 115”
INTENSIFYING. Management confirmed a 14% year-on-year increase in the wage bill due to aggressive hiring for talent, though they maintain it is stable as a percentage of total revenue (31%). (3 intensifying, 2 easing, 1 high-severity)
“EBITDA Margin 18.4% 23.5% (15%)”
Management confirmed that one Mumbai C&T contract (3% of revenue) expires in Dec 2025, but they have already bid for the renewal. Kanjurmarg visibility is secured by the legal stay. (2 stable)
“Balance Tenure ~11 Years”
This remains a structural risk for the business model, specifically noted in the bidding process for landfill projects. (1 stable)
“For projects involving landfills, requirement of restoring the land to its original condition at company’s own cost”
The company is expanding its WTE footprint with two new projects in Andhra Pradesh (Kadapa and Kurnool). These involve high upfront capex (~Rs. 600-650 Cr) and a 24-month construction period, delaying revenue until FY29. (1 intensifying, 4 easing)
“PCMC to purchase power at ₹ 5 per unit during concession period”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Antony Waste han
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