AI-generated · cited to primary sources · not investment advice
Eternal (543320) Jul 2025 Filing Analysis
Does management do what it says?
Food delivery NOV growth improved slightly to 14% YoY, which management describes as a slow recovery toward the long-term target. (1 in progress across 1 tracked commitment)
“For FY26, it looks unlikely that the business will deliver a 20%+ NOV growth but we should be north of 15% and hopefully trending towards 20% YoY growth in FY27.”
See the full cited Management analysis of Eternal
How durable is the business?
The segment has expanded significantly following the acquisition of movie and event ticketing businesses, growing 95% YoY in order value. It is being positioned as a high-value platform for premium customers. (1 expanding)
“Going-out is now a INR 8,000 crore annualized NOV business... offering large going-out use cases including dining-out, movies, sports, concert ticketing etc. on a single app.”
Blinkit's contribution margin and EBITDA losses are narrowing as stores mature. Management expects to reach 5-6% Adjusted EBITDA margins long-term, with some cities already at 2.5%. (4 expanding)
“On the profitability front, the margins improved from -2.4% of NOV in Q4FY25 to -1.8% despite continued investments in new store roll-outs.”
Monthly Transacting Users for quick commerce have reached 17 million, showing strong growth and approaching the scale of the food delivery segment. (2 expanding)
“You're already close to around 17 million MTCs versus 23 million in food delivery.”
Blinkit is aggressively shifting to a 1P (inventory-led) model to improve margins and compliance, with plans to move most inventory to its balance sheet within 2-3 quarters. (2 shifted)
“margins have improved from -2.4% to -1.8% in this quarter... we should be able to move most of our business to inventory ownership and the margin accretion should also happen in that timeframe.”
See the full cited Business Model analysis of Eternal
Where does growth come from?
While growth has slowed to 13% recently, management maintains a long-term target of 20% growth, despite current headwinds from quick commerce cannibalization. (1 decelerating across 1 signal)
“we still believe... in the long term the business can grow at 20%, although that visibility is not there in the near term at this point.”
See the full cited Future Growth analysis of Eternal
What could break the thesis?
Store productivity appears to have stabilized. Management reports current productivity levels at INR 7 lacs of NOV per store per day, which they use as the basis for their 40% ROCE projections. (1 stable, 1 intensifying)
“At current productivity levels (of INR 7 lacs of NOV per store per day), a store generates ~INR 26 crore of NOV annually.”
See the full cited Risk analysis of Eternal
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